Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 1:49 PM   Moonset 2:05 AM

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FXUS64 KLZK 171032 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 532 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA were lifting north over central to NRN AR early this Fri morning...with most of the SRN sections remaining dry
However
SRN sections were seeing a bit more patchy fog. An unsettled pattern will continue into early Sat.

An upper shortwave to the west this morning will move slowly east over AR by this Fri evening...with chances for scattered convection continuing. Morning convection will continue lifting north or dissipate by shortly after sunrise...with maybe an isolated SHRA/TSRA or two through midday. Afternoon heating will allow for more convection to fire under and just downstream of the upper shortwave axis across portions of central/NRN AR
Then
additional convection may develop late Fri afternoon/evening due to forcing from any outflow boundaries resulting from earlier convection. Some isolated/widely scattered convection will then linger for Sat morning before the upper shortwave shifts east by Sat afternoon.
Chances for precip then decrease Sat afternoon and especially Sat night as this system moves further east.

The overall potential for seeing organized SVR TSRA remains low...but a few isolated SVR storms could develop. The primary threat with any SVR storm would be damaging downburst winds and some large hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also result in some isolated flash flooding
However
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time.

Temps will be coolest today with potential for convection and cloud cover...but highs will still warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Some temps nearing 80 could be seen across the far south where clouds/precip chances will be lowest. Temps tonight will dip down into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Highs on Sat will be warmer in the mid 70s to mid 80s due to less clouds and precip. Lows Sat night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The long term fcst wl begin w/ sfc high pressure departing to the east, and intermittent H500 shortwave ridging set to build over the Cntrl US, ahead of a deepening longwave trof over the Wrn and Pac- N/Wrn US. Drier and relatively warmer condns should ensue acrs the FA to begin the new work week. Local temps in the upper 80s to low 90s wl highlight a majority of the long term PD, as mean Srly sfc flow is set to extend over the Srn Cntrl US.

Chances for more scattered to widespread rain and storms look to resume over the FA by early Wed mrng as the aforementioned Wrn US troughing begins to maneuver acrs the Cont Divide and eject over the Great Plains. At the sfc, Srn Plains cyclonic flow is progged to move N/Ewrd thru the Plains, and acrs the Ozark Plateau towards the Upper Midwest, w/ a trailing cdfrnt bcmg draped over region from N/E to S/W. Additional rainfall along the frnt looks to be possible heading into Thurs mrng, before another broad region of sfc high pressure settles in over the FA towards the weekend.

Rain chances look to become more intermittent near the end of the long term fcst, as a new region of sfc high pressure briefly moves acrs the region, and trends temps down towards more normal values.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some scattered SHRA is ongoing across NRN sections early this Fri morning...which should continue to lift NNE over time. A break in the precip should be seen later this morning...but more scattered convection will redevelop by this afternoon...mainly further south across central/SRN sections. Most of this activity should decrease in coverage by late this evening and tonight...though some patchy fog may be seen late tonight as winds become calm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 74 63 81 62 / 50 30 20 0 Camden AR 80 65 84 63 / 30 30 20 0 Harrison AR 72 59 80 60 / 60 20 10 0 Hot Springs AR 78 63 84 63 / 50 40 20 0 Little Rock AR 79 66 83 65 / 60 50 30 0 Monticello AR 79 66 82 65 / 30 30 30 0 Mount Ida AR 78 62 84 62 / 60 40 20 0 Mountain Home AR 73 61 81 61 / 50 20 10 0 Newport AR 75 64 80 64 / 70 30 30 0 Pine Bluff AR 79 65 82 64 / 40 40 30 0 Russellville AR 76 63 84 62 / 60 30 20 0 Searcy AR 76 63 82 63 / 50 40 30 0 Stuttgart AR 77 66 81 66 / 50 50 30 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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