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FXUS65 KVEF 051717 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1015 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Potent Spring storm system moving across the Great Basin today will continue to bring strong winds to the Mojave Desert and much cooler temperatures. Light showers will occur across parts of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona leading to a dusting of snow in the mountains. Less wind will return Monday then breezy periods with temperatures a little below normal can be expected for much of the upcoming week.

UPDATE
Recent observations showed fairly extensive southwest winds gusting over 40 mph across San Bernardino, Clark and Mohave counties this morning. High res models indicated this belt of southwest winds will gradually give way to northwest winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph which were pushing down from central Nye County. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 5 pm for San Bernardino, Clark and Mohave counties.
Wind speeds have been decreasing in the Spring Mountains this morning and the probability of additional gusts over 60 mph is less than 10 percent. The High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire on schedule at 11 AM PDT.

Scattered showers were detected on radar over Lincoln County and will remain mostly confined to Lincoln/northern Mohave counties, though the Spring Mountains may get brushed by the tail of moisture which could be seen on satellite loops extending into southern Nye/western Clark counties. The showers slowly pull away during the afternoon as the upper low centered over Nevada progresses toward Utah.


PREV DISCUSSION
154 AM PDT

SHORT TERM
Through Tuesday night.

Potent low is over northwest Nevada/northern California early this morning with numerous rain and snow showers occuring underneath the low. Region of strong forcing east of the low is leading to rain and snow showers over northeast Nevada, while IR imagery showers an area of cooling cloud tops over east central Nevada. HRRR still supports north to south orientated lines of light showers developing across northern and central Nye County by daybreak. Those lines of showers will then shift east across Lincoln County throughout the day. Still may see a few showers develop as far south as Clark and northern Mohave Counties. Any new show accumulations in Lincoln County will amount to less than 1". By early evening, all the shower activity will shift further east into southern Utah and northern Arizona.

Strongest winds currently in Clark, southern Nye and San Bernardino Counties are occuring under belt of stronger H7 winds aloft which have been sagging southeast ahead of the potent low. Peak wind gusts have been slowly trending upward at Red Rock Canyon since 11 pm last evening. HiResW-NMM cross section through Red Rock Canyon continues to support the potential for strong downslope winds through 11 am this morning before the signature weakens. It will stay windy throughout most of the day in Mohave, Clark and San Bernardino County justifying the wind advisory. Surface winds have weakened throughout western Inyo County so went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning early. Should be able to expire the rest of Inyo County, Esmeralda and central Nye County at 5 am. After a brief respite in the wind Sunday night and Monday some gusts of 25 to 35 mph return on Tuesday.

Much cooler today with highs as much as 20 degrees colder than yesterday. Temperatures on Monday rebound as much as 10-15 degrees with another 5 degrees of warming Tuesday placing temperatures right around normal.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday.

The area will remain dry under weak troughing from midweek into the weekend keeping temperatures below normal through Thursday then seasonal on Friday. Afternoon breezes are forecast across the region each day with windy conditions limited to areas along the Colorado River Valley on Wednesday.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...25 to 35 knot southwesterly wind gusts will continue through the early morning hours before beginning to decrease after around 15Z. These winds will continue to decrease through the morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will swing around to the northwest around mid-afternoon as the front moves through the valley. Winds might briefly pick up as the front passes, but will resume their decreasing trend after an hour or two. By sunset wind gusts will have dropped off with winds favoring a westerly to northwesterly direction through the overnight hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...The remaining Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will follow similar trends to KLAS, with the exception of KHND favoring a more westerly wind shift with the frontal passage and a southwesterly direction through the overnight hours. KDAG will continue to favor a more westerly direction with 15 to 20 knot sustained winds through early-to-mid morning when 30 to 40 knot wind gusts will return.
Light southeasterly winds will pick up and swing around to the north- northwest at KBIH during the early morning hours as a front moves through. These 25 to 30 knot northerly-to-northwesterly wind gusts will continue into the evening hours. The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see 10 to 15 knot sustained southerly-to-southwesterly winds continue through mid-morning when 20 to 30 knot wind gusts will pick back up. These southerly/southwesterly wind gusts will continue through mid-to-late afternoon when winds will swing to the west-northwest as the front passes through. 20 to 30 knot west- northwesterly wind gusts will continue for a few hours after the front passes before dropping off around sunset this evening.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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