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FXUS64 KLZK 191838 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 138 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery depicted upper level ridging extending from east Texas to the northeast over the eastern Great Lakes region. There was an upper level disturbance just southeast of the four corners area aiding in surface cyclogenesis over western Kansas. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations showed fair weather cumulus over Arkansas with temperatures in the upper 80s and a couple of 90 degree readings as well. To the south of the strengthening surface cyclone over Kansas was a dry line extending due south across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing over western Kansas this afternoon and evening, extending south along portions of the dryline late this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles are expected to move east in west-southwest flow aloft as upper level ridging over Arkansas flattens out a bit in response to the eastward moving upper level disturbance. The showers and thunderstorms will approach northwest Arkansas early Monday morning, but are very likely to dissipate as they run into mid-level dry air and weak subsidence aloft over the state. Outside of some high cloud cover spreading over the state, no impacts are expected from thunderstorms off to our west.

A stronger upper level trough will move east-northeast from the western Continental United States (CONUS) over the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. This will cause a cold front to push southeast from the northern Plains southeast towards the upper Arkansas River Basin. The stronger southwest flow aloft will push a dryline east towards central Oklahoma leaving something akin to a triple point along the Kansas and Oklahoma border Tuesday evening.
Despite the mesoscale forcing in place between the cold front and dryline, the lack of upper level forcing for ascent is expected to be insufficient to overcome a mid-level capping inversion in place over the southern portion of the warm sector, so convection initiation is not expected at this time. Will have to continue to monitor the evolution of the mesoscale environment to ensure that the cap holds, but expect the northwestern portion of the CWA to remain dry at least through sunset Tuesday evening. Temperatures will remain warm tomorrow and Tuesday with highs topping out in the lower 90s each day.

Cavanaugh

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

To begin the period, a low pressure system will be moving into the the Great Lakes region bringing a cold front into the state late Tuesday into Wednesday. The front is expected to stall across the state with the chance for unsettled weather remaining possible through the weekend as a couple of shortwaves ride along the stalled front.

The chance for severe weather is possible with these systems...although on the low side. It appears the time of day could impact the chance for severe weather meaning convection could struggle during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. We are still a few days away and changes to the forecast will be possible.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Higher humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly warmer.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 66 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 65 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 65 87 68 87 / 10 10 0 10 Hot Springs AR 66 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 69 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 68 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 65 87 68 89 / 0 10 0 10 Newport AR 66 89 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 67 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 66 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 64 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 89 71 91 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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