Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:01 AM   Moonset 5:34 PM

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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 945 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Overnight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A slight chance of showers. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.Tue - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 945 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters overnight, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 060551 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 151 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 805 PM EDT Sunday...

Shower activity continues to diminish this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. However, light showers will continue to be possible through tonight and into early Mon morning (along the coast). CAMs are doing a poor job resolving the current convection and therefore have lower than normal confidence in the PoP forecast tonight. That being said, the greatest chance for redeveloping showers is across S portions of the FA S of US-460 due to a shortwave lingering across NC overnight. These showers gradually move E overnight with a decrease in coverage expected as time progresses. Temps as of 750 PM ranged from the upper 60s to around 70F for most. Given widespread cloud cover and WAA, expect lows to remain mild in the low-mid 60s for most. Additionally, given the recent rainfall today, patchy to widespread fog is expected to develop inland (mainly after midnight) with lowest VIS across the Piedmont. Locally dense fog is possible. A secondary area of fog is possible across the Atlantic side of the MD Eastern Shore overnight as CAMs show the potential for marine layer fog to move onshore. Any fog should burn off by mid morning Mon.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday through Wednesday

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions

Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two.
Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Warm and humid conditions will continue for Wed into Thu evening, then drier air and closer to normal temps will return for Fri through Sun. Stronger 500 mb flow combined with shortwave energy/sfc trough will likely result in the potential for strong or severe storms Thu into Thu evening. A cold front and upper trough will then push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms. Except for slight or small chances for showers Sat through Sun, near or slightly below normal temps and more comfortable humidity will prevail. Highs will range through the 80s Thu, in the mid to upper 70s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Shower activity continues to continues to decrease in coverage and intensity. However, light showers will continue to be possible through the rest of tonight and into the early morning (along the coast) at all terminals. BKN/OVC sky cover lingers through Mon night with CIGs initially VFR/MVFR (intermittent IFR at RIC). CIGs gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR/LIFR from W to E through the rest of the night with IFR CIGs at SBY/RIC/PHF likely before sunrise. RIC is starting to see some IFR CIGs already, but SBY and ORF should hold off until ~8-10z. CIGs improve to MVFR by mid- late morning and to VFR Mon afternoon.
Additionally, given the rain today, patchy to widespread fog is expected to develop inland early this morning with IFR/MVFR VIS. The lowest VIS is expected to be across the Piedmont, however, it may reach as far as RIC. Any fog quickly lifts by Mon morning. More rounds of scattered showers and storms are likely Mon afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight (S/SE), becoming SW/SSW 5-10 kt Mon (highest along the coast).

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn, with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.

Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24 hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.

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