Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:04 AM   Moonset 12:44 PM

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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 1258 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Fri - W winds 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1258 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure briefly builds in today. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 021837 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 237 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions come to the area by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Very quiet tonight with high pressure overhead.
Guidance suggests that the front over southern New York and PA will move across the MD eastern shore late tonight allowing winds to back to the NE with an increase in clouds late. But otherwise this front will be of little consequence tonight. Do not think fog will be an issue over land tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today likely allowing any excessive moisture to burn off. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon.
Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HRRR mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow.

Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC.

By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions with light winds expected through tomorrow morning. A backdoor cold front will move into the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight, allowing winds to turn NE by Fri morning. This front will continue to slowly move SW on Friday, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18z. Some forecast guidance suggest that SBY may see MVFR cigs after 15z tomorrow behind the front and have included that in the terminal fcst.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday with chances for rain/storms each day. A summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected today and tonight across all local waters

- Increased NE winds expected behind and cold front Friday evening into Saturday. SCAs possible in the lower Ches Bay/lower James.

High pressure has temporarily built in over the region, leading to light southerly winds of 5kt or less. Today, southerly winds gradually increase from N to S into the evening, but stay sub-SCA at 10-15kt. A backdoor cold front gradually drops across the region early Friday morning. Behind the front, winds turn to the NE and increase to 15-20kt in the Bay and coastal waters and 10-15kt in the rivers. Given the potential for gusts of 20-25kt in the lower bay, SCAs may be needed starting Friday afternoon. Breezy onshore winds continue through the weekend with winds becoming more southeasterly by Sunday. Winds diminish to 5-10kt and turn SSW for the early week period.

Latest buoy obs indicate seas around 2ft. Waves are 1ft or less. As winds increase behind the backdoor front tomorrow, seas will increase to 3-4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654.

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False Cape
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Thu -- 02:40 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:18 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
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