Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Moyock, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:04PM Friday September 21, 2018 12:15 PM EDT (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 1012 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Rest of today..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1012 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides offshore by this evening. A cold front will approach from the north Saturday, and cross the area Sunday, before stalling over the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moyock, NC
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location: 36.5, -76.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211054
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
654 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain over the area through today. A
weakening cold front will pass through the middle atlantic on
Saturday, then stall out just south of the area by Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 240 am edt Friday...

* NWS surveys have now determined that there have been 9 confirmed
tornadoes from 6 different storm cells on 9 17 2018. See
https: weather.Gov akq sep172018_tornadoes for details.

Generally quiet weather expected to continue today as sfc hi
pres exits E of new england and strong ridge aloft slides by s
of the local area (over the carolinas). Starting out W bkn-ovc
st spreading over (far) inland areas in va (where there will be
isold shras) and from central interior ERN nc. Will likely
start out partly-mostly cloudy over the local area... Then
transition to partly- mostly sunny mid-late morning through the
afternoon. Cannot rule out an isold TSTM over parts of the
piedmont late today. Highs in the l80s near the coast to the
m80s inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday
As of 240 am edt Friday...

center of the ridge aloft shifts S and E tonight resulting in
height falls while a weakening cold front approaches from the
n. The front slowly settles S across the area sat. This front
combined with the increasing instability just S of the boundary
will yield increasing chance for tstms... ESP S of i-64 by later
sat afternoon. Do not expect severe wx W very weak wind flow
aloft of less than 30kt. The front stalls just south of the
area Sat night W wedge building in across the NRN and WRN areas
in the fa as a strong 1030mb high builds across new england.

Meanwhile, a very weak disturbance aloft moves through the fa
sun in SW flow aloft. This will allow for additional shras
through the day sun. Trending cloudier for at least NRN central
areas sun... Vrb clouds-partly cloudy se.

Highs Sat from around 80f N to the u80s over far SRN SE va and
ne nc. Lows Sat night in the l60s N and W to around 70f at the
coast in SE va-ne nc. Highs Sun from the 60s across central va
to the l80s in NE nc.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 400 pm edt Thursday...

looking like yet another unsettled pattern for the medium range
period, at least from Sun night through Tue as strong sfc high
pressure (to ~1040 mb) builds from ontario canada to northern new
england and then off the canadian maritimes. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary looks to stall in the vicinity of southern va or nc, with a
trough of low pressure lingering along off the SE us coast. Rather
strong onshore E to NE flow will prevail Sun night Mon mon night
along with high chance to likely pops (40-60%). Highs will remain on
the cool side over northern and western sections Mon with cad in-
situ wedge pattern (upper 60s low 70s), with highs in the upper
70s lower 80s se. Lows in the 60s most areas to around 70 f (se) mon
night. The front gradually lifts N Tue but may be slow to clear the
cwa (especially N NW zones), so highs Tue in the lower 70s N to the
lower 80s se. Pops will be lower Tue night Wed in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front from the nw, though models do
linger some moisture not too far off the coast so will still
maintain 20-30% pops W partly-mostly cloudy skies. Highs Wed in the
80s. Models differ on timing of the front thu, GFS being faster and
ecwmf slower. Splitting the difference siding close to wpc frontal
positions yields lowering pops from NW to SE on thu, with highs
mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 650 am edt Friday...

vfr conditions at all TAF sites to start the 12z TAF forecast
period with light S to SE winds. MVFR ceilings (well) inland w
of I 95 are expected to dissipate after 14-15z 21.VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by mid-late this morning and will
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds turn to the
s and eventually the SW across the region... Generally AOB 10 kt.

Shras and tstms return Sat as a cold front settles over the
local area. Localized MVFR conditions possible. MVFR or even ifr
conditions possible Sun into Mon as the front stalls lingers
just S of the fa and NE winds bring low level moisture into the
area along with sct shras. Highest probs would be at ric and
sby. The front returns back N early next week.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Friday...

latest analysis indicates ~1026mb high pressure off the new
england coast, with sfc ridging extending ssw into
southern southeastern va. With the sfc ridge axis just inland, winds
have diminished to 5-10kt and have slowly turned to the se.

With the persistent onshore flow during the past day or so, seas
are around 4-4.5 feet over the northern coastal waters 4.5-5
feet south of CAPE charles. Will allow the SCA for the southern
coastal waters to continue until 7 am. Seas decrease to 3-4 ft
during the day today as the wind becomes S SE at 10-15 kt over
the waters. Expect a slight increase in the wind as it veers to
the SW from this evening through early Saturday am as the sfc
ridge moves SE of the coastal waters. This (coupled with an
approaching cold front from the nw) will lead to a tightening
pressure gradient. Could see a few gusts to 20-25 kt over the
nrn coastal waters, with gusts to 15-20kt on the bay. Opted to
not issue an SCA given the marginal (and short-lived nature) of
the peak wind gusts this evening-sat early am.

A pre-frontal wind shift to N occurs over the NRN half of the area
Saturday, but the latest 21 00z guidance is still in agreement that
the cold front and stronger NE winds do not arrive until Sunday
morning (and likely last through at least Monday). Strong high
pressure builds over new england Sunday into Monday, before sliding
offshore Tuesday. Meanwhile, weak low pressure develops in vicinity
of the gulf stream. The pressure gradient tightens resulting in an
ene wind of 15-20kt and potentially 20-25kt over the ocean and lower
bay where seas waves build to at least 5-7ft 4-5ft. SCA conditions
are likely late Sunday into early next week.

Hydrology
As of 930 pm edt Thursday...

cancelled the river flood warning at matoaca so now the only
remaining gauge in flood is the appomattox river at mattoax.

See flsakq for more site-specific details.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 430 am edt Friday...

while tidal departures are still 1-1.5 feet above normal,
am expecting to see departures fall during the day today as the flow
shifts from SE to ssw. However, water levels may approach low-end
minor flooding in parts of the upper bay during high tide late this
morning through the afternoon. Issued a coastal flood statement for
the northern neck and lower md eastern shore to account for this.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Alb mrd
near term... Alb
short term... Alb mrd
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb alb mrd
marine... Ajz eri
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 21 mi27 min 80°F 81°F1023.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi27 min 76°F 1022.4 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 31 mi33 min 76°F 79°F1023.6 hPa
FRFN7 31 mi135 min 3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 31 mi15 min 78°F4 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 32 mi33 min 80°F1023.7 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 34 mi30 min 76°F4 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 34 mi33 min 1023.3 hPa
44064 35 mi25 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 1023.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 35 mi33 min 1024.2 hPa
44087 36 mi15 min 80°F1 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 37 mi15 min 78°F3 ft
CHBV2 37 mi33 min 1023.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 47 mi33 min 79°F
44072 49 mi25 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 75°F

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA14 mi40 minNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F63°F60%1024 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC17 mi21 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F66°F64%1023.7 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA24 mi19 minE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F64°F64%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from ONX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for False Cape, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Sandbridge, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.