Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ebony, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday May 25, 2019 9:07 AM EDT (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 729 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 ft late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 729 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast today, then shifts off the southeast coast on Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front pushes south across the waters on memorial day, and lifts back north as a warm front on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ebony, VA
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location: 36.57, -78     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 251130
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
730 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A slightly cooler air mass moved into central nc behind a
backdoor that stalled across central north carolina. The front
will retreat north later today. Otherwise, a strong ridge upper
level ridge will persist across the region into next week
resulting in a period of hot weather and limited precipitation
chances.

Near term through tonight
As of 335 am Saturday...

the latest surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front moving
into the piedmont from the east and northeast with surface dew
points dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s behind with the
front with dew points near 70 ahead of the front across the
western piedmont. A cooler air mass behind the front with a
notable drop in 1000-850 mb thicknesses is noted across md, va,
and northeastern nc. Further aloft, a 594 dm ridge remains
centered across al with the ridge axis extending into the
eastern tn valley. An active pattern persists in the
southwesterly flow on the backside of the ridge across the
plains and midwest that anticyclonically curves into a northwest
flow across the mid atlantic. Central nc will be on the
periphery of the ridge and adjacent to the main belt of
westerlies today.

The air mass across central nc will become moderately unstable
this afternoon with MLCAPE values ranging from 800 to 1800 j kg
along with steep low level lapse rates. Warm temperatures aloft
will result in modest mid-level lapse rates which should limit
overall convective coverage. A couple of weak disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft trigger an isolated storm this
afternoon or evening but coverage is expected to be limited with
the best coverage to the north near the westerlies and more
limited coverage to southwest, closer to the ridge.

The air mass across the area will vary as a slightly cooler air
mass moved into the northern coastal plain and far northeast
piedmont behind the front while little to no air mass change
occurred across the southwest. Highs today will range from the
upper 80s in the northeast near roanoke rapids to mid 90s across
the southwest near wadesboro and rockingham. Low temperatures
tonight will range within a few degrees of 70. -blaes

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 355 am Saturday...

Sunday should feature hot and dry conditions. The upper level
ridge will dominate the weather during the second half of the
work week with a notable capping inversion present Sunday afternoon
centered around 650 hpa with temps of 7-8 degrees c. In
addition, a west to northwesterly flow and a deep mixed layer up
to around 7kft will suppress convection and support a dry
forecast. Highs on Sunday will range in the mid to upper 90s
with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -blaes

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 330 am Saturday...

the main headline for the long term remains unchanged with mostly
hot conditions and a slight increase in the chance of precipitation
towards the end of the extended. Latest runs of the gefs, geps, and
eps all show well above normal height anomalies for the beginning of
the extended with a slow break down in the mid-level ridge expected
by the end of the work week.

On Monday a weak cold front will stall out over northern virginia as
associated upper level energy remains well north of north carolina.

Monday evening a weak shortwave and associated PVA will round the
top of an mid-level ridge centered near the florida panhandle. The
gfs is much stronger with this shortwave compared to the ecmwf. The
ecmwf solution keeps most of the area dry (thanks to stronger mid-
level ridging), while the GFS solution has a respectable amount of
pva crossing the northeastern zones. Current trend has been that the
gfs has been to generous with the breakdown of the ridge compared to
its ECMWF counter part. Forecast soundings for the ecmwf
correspondingly show a much drier air mass compared to the GFS which
destabilizes the area. The NAM and cmc tend to split the difference.

Due to this have kept slight chance pops in the forecast Monday
evening.

Afternoon temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be hot with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. The 100 degree mark will also likely
be in reach Tuesday into Wednesday as 1000 850 mb thicknesses are
forecast to be in the 1440 to 1450 m range. As of current it appears
daytime mixing will keep heat indices just under advisory threshold
over much of the area. Still though, it is important to take
precautions for the heat. Remain hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure
to the sun, and limit strenuous activities when spending time
outdoors.

Wednesday into Thursday an upper level low over the midwestern
united states will push east helping to finally break down the mid-
level ridge over the southeastern united states. Simultaneously
Thursday evening an potent upper level low over the hudson bay will
rotate south. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the leftover energy from
the low over the midwestern united states shearing out and crossing
virginia Thursday evening. The GFS and cmc then bring a chance of
rain back to the region with this system. The ECMWF keeps the ridge
slightly stronger and holds the chances of precipitation across
virginia. For now, have just kept the mention of slight chance pops
as a good deal of uncertainty remains in how far south the ridge
will actually be pushed.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 730 am Saturday...

high confidence ofVFR conditions across central nc over the next 24
hour TAF period. An area ofVFR mid clouds with bases of 7-10kft
will move slowly southeast across central nc this morning. In
addition, an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm may
develop this afternoon or evening with the best chance across the
north. Coverage is expected to be limited and have opted not to
include any mention of convection for now. Light winds from the
northeast to east this morning will become southwesterly at 5 to
10kts during the afternoon.

Looking beyond 12z sun... GenerallyVFR conditions are expected
during the period as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather
with a limited chance of a mainly afternoon or evening shower or
storm. -blaes

Climate
Here are the record high temperatures and the year they were set for
the period may 25th-29th:
date rdu gso fay
may 25th 93 2011 96 1926 98 2011
may 26th 94 1953 95 1926 98 1926
may 27th 96 1916 100 1911 100 1953
may 28th 99 1941 98 1916 102 1941
may 29th 98 1941 99 1914 102 1941

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Blaes
near term... Blaes
short term... Blaes
long term... Haines
aviation... Blaes
climate... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 78 mi38 min 72°F 78°F1022.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 88 mi38 min E 8.9 G 13 70°F 1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA9 mi73 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F88%1024 hPa

Wind History from AVC (wind in knots)
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NW8NW4NW4N4N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
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2 days agoN4CalmE3N4NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3S3S5S6S3S4S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.61.10.80.70.81.32.12.83.13.12.92.41.91.30.90.70.60.81.52.22.833

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:47 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.70.60.71.11.82.42.72.82.72.31.81.20.80.60.50.71.31.92.42.72.72.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.