Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ebony, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:00PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:54 PM EST (20:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:50PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 301 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, becoming ne late in the evening, then becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late in the morning, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ600 301 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides by north of the region today, as a frontal lingers over the southeast states. The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. High pressure builds in from the west late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ebony, VA
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location: 36.57, -78     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 232037
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
335 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge southward and result in continued
appalachian cold air damming across the middle atlantic states
through Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the
region Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 pm Saturday...

classical cold air damming regime firmly established across central
nc this afternoon and will persist into the evening. Mid afternoon
analysis depict the sfc ridge extending sw-ne across the piedmont,
originating from a parent high (~1030mb) offshore of southern new
england. Aloft, sly flow in the 925-850mb layer continued to pull
warm moist air over the cool stable air at the surface. Decent speed
convergence noted at 850mb with 10kts at gso and 40kts at
ffc atlanta per 12z upper air analysis. This sly flow veers to a
swly direction later this afternoon and this evening. This action
should push the axis of persistent rainfall over the northern
piedmont a bit farther north into southern va by this evening, and
more so overnight. Thus, we should experience a relative lull in the
precip over the northern piedmont northern coastal plain, aside from
areas of drizzle.

Later this evening and into the overnight, warmer air immediately
above the surface will spread nwd. This warmer air above the cool
surface should promote the development of fog, some of which will be
dense. Model guidance has shifted gears a bit and now suggest the
piedmont and sandhills as the favorable region for dense fog, and
less so across the coastal plain. Still, expect at least pockets of
dense fog in vicinity of the i-95 corridor. Confidence not quite high
enough to issue a dense fog advisory, though one will likely be
needed later tonight. Evening temperatures will generally hold
steady near 40 north to the low-mid 40s south. After midnight,
temperatures will slowly rise across the far south as the warmer air
slowly makes inroads into our region. By daybreak, expect
temperatures to vary from around 40 NW piedmont to the upper 40s-
lower 50s south.

Short term Sunday and Sunday night
As of 330 pm Saturday...

Sunday, a strong cold front associated with a deep low lifting
northeast across the great lakes, will sweep across central nc
Sunday morning, exiting our region by early afternoon. Convergence
along this feature will support a band of moderate-heavy showers
ahead of the front. While kinematics are impressive with bulk shear
around 60kts, the lower levels of the atmosphere appear too stable
to support deep convection, so not expecting any thunder with this
system at this time. Still, the heavier showers able to obtain some
depth will aid to translate some of the strong winds aloft to the
surface. Wind gusts 40-50 mph are a possibility with some of the
heavier showers.

Behind the sfc front, blustery west-northwest winds will usher a
drier air mass into the region. This drier air coupled with
subsidence behind the exiting frontal system should dissipate cloud
cover west-to-east immediately behind the front. The insolation and
the tight pressure gradient associated with the deep low to our nw
will cause west-northwest sfc winds 15-20 mph with frequent gusts 30-
40 mph. Sporadic wind gusts 45 to 50 mph not out of the question
across the northern piedmont. A wind advisory may be needed in later
forecast issuance. Warmer air over the region Sunday, thanks to the
deep wly flow, will permit temperatures to soar into the 70s across
most of the sandhills and coastal plain. Elsewhere, residual effects
of the cad may temper the warm up a bit, yielding temperatures
generally in the mid-upper 60s.

Cooler air will overspread central nc Sunday night. Under clear
skies and steady west-nw wind, expect overnight temperatures in the
30s.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 240 pm Saturday...

Monday through Tuesday night: surface high pressure will build into
and through the region behind the front through Tuesday, with dry,
seasonable conditions expected through Tuesday night. The surface
high pushes offshore late Tuesday Tuesday night. Generally expect
temperatures to moderate through this time frame with highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday: forecast confidence for Wednesday onward
is quite low at this time. Though the medium-range models show
similar upper level patterns, the GFS is much wetter than the ecmwf.

In fact, the ec keeps most of the area dry through the end of the
work week. Expect a series of weak but amplifying shortwaves to pass
through the region. The surface high over the atlantic will allow
southeasterly return flow to advect moisture into the region. This
supports increasing chances for rain, primarily across the south, on
Wednesday should the shortwaves provide enough forcing to generate
precipitation. Several weak surface lows will develop in response to
the shortwaves aloft, but where, when and how strong they will be is
still in question. The other difference between the GFS and ECMWF is
in regard to the surface boundary location with respect to central
nc. The ec keeps high pressure wedged into the area through Friday
while the GFS keeps central nc in the warm sector Wednesday and
Thursday, with the wedge building into the area on Friday. These
differences are the reason for the low confidence forecast but the
trend is for a possible return to wet weather by the end of the work
week.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 105 pm Saturday...

adverse aviation conditions expected to persist across central nc
through 12z Sunday. Widespread ifr low end MVFR ceilings will occur
this afternoon with widespread ifr lifr expected tonight. Rain will
occur through 22z across the northern half of the forecast area,
affecting flight operations at kint, kgso, krdu, and krwi. In
vicinity of kfay, just spotty light rain expected though
visibilities will be restricted in the mfr ifr categories due to
fog.

After 05z, just spotty light rain drizzle expected across the region
though ifr lifr ceilings and MVFR ifr visibilities will persist. A
strengthening low level jet will induce low level wind shear
conditions across the region with wind speeds 35-45kts expected at
1500 ft agl. These wind shear conditions expected to abate after 14z
Sunday as the stronger winds aloft begin to mix to the surface.

A strong cold front will cross central nc Sunday morning through
early afternoon. SW winds ahead of the front may gusts around 40kts
over portions of the sandhills and coastal plain. Behind the front,
west-northwest winds expected to gusts 35-40kts. Along the front,
expect a band of heavy showers, producing visibilities at or below 2
miles and wind gusts around 40kts.

Strong subsidence coupled with a downslope component to the low
level wind will aid to dissipate the cloud coverage, with mostly
clear partly cloudy skies expected areawide by early-mid afternoon.

Vfr parameters expected Sunday afternoon through mid week. There is
potential for subVFR parameters due to ceilings toward the later
half of the work week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Kc
aviation... Wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 88 mi43 min E 11 G 18 44°F 1023.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi85 min ENE 5.1 42°F 1025 hPa41°F

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA9 mi60 minNNE 35.00 miOvercast40°F40°F100%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from AVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3NE4NE5NE3NE3N3N3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmN5N4NE4
1 day agoS4CalmSW4SW6SW3SW3SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE3NE4NE3NE4NE6E3
2 days agoNE4CalmN3N6N8N4N6N7NW4NW4NW4SE8W3NW3CalmSW3SW6SW4SW5S8SW5SW6S5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Sat -- 01:39 AM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:13 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.3-0.40.31.52.63.23.432.41.710.4-0.1-0.4-0.20.81.92.83.132.51.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:12 AM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:00 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:43 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.30.31.22.12.832.92.41.710.4-0.1-0.4-0.10.61.62.32.82.82.51.81.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.