Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Del Monte Forest, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:57PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:50 AM PST (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 9:38AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ575 Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos 10-60 Nm- 214 Am Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and S around 1 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and S around 1 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 5 ft at 15 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds and S around 1 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Mon..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds and S around 1 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds and S around 1 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Tue..S winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 7 to 9 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft and S around 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft and S around 1 ft. A chance of rain.
PZZ500 214 Am Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light west to northwest winds will continue overnight and tomorrow. Winds will turn southerly late this weekend and continue into mid-week. Light to moderate northwest swell will persist into next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Del Monte Forest, CA
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location: 36.59, -122.5     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 231137
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
337 am pst Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis Dry and seasonably cool conditions will prevail across
most of the region through the weekend. The exception may be the
north bay where there is a chance of light rain late in the
weekend. A plume of moisture will bring moderate to heavy rain to
the broader region for the first half of next week though the
exact positioning of the heaviest rains continues to vary.

Another potentially wet system may bring more rain to the region
late next week and into the following weekend.

Discussion As of 3:30 am pst Saturday... Overnight temperatures
are 5 to 15 degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago despite dew points
running 10 to 15 degrees warmer. Both nights featured clear skies
but differ in that last night featured light to breezy winds for
the majority of the night, where as winds early this morning are
mostly calm across the region. The lack of winds this morning
means the relatively warmer layers aloft decoupled from the
surface layer, allowing it to radiational cool down towards the
dew point. Latest observations suggest temperatures are now
approaching their dew point readings, meaning the cooling rate
will decrease significantly. Sunrise temperatures will be slightly
warmer this morning due to the higher overall dew points versus
24 hours ago despite being significantly cooler at this hour.

The synoptic scale pattern currently features a benign
northwesterly flow aloft with a much deeper 534dm 500mb open wave
farther northward. Forecast models suggest this open wave trough
will descend southward along the british columbia coastline
through the next 24 hours before stalling out near seattle. This
upper low stalls out due to the presence of a broad low amplitude
ridge blocking its southward progression into california.

Satellite imagery model data show the presence of a 0.80-0.90"
precipitable water plume straddling the border of the weak ridge
to the south and the aforementioned trough to the north. The
stalling upper low will tap into this moisture plume through the
weekend, but given the synoptic setup, will keep the bulk of any
rain confined to the northern extremes of sonoma napa counties
and farther northward. Previous model runs have steadily slowed
and shunted northward the precipitation this weekend with the
latest runs continue that line of thinking.

A secondary vorticity pulse will round the base of the trough
later Sunday into early Monday and reinvigorate the broader
trough. The trough deepens and expands southward Sunday night into
Monday, which finally allows precipitation to expand southward
through the north bay and into the immediate san francisco bay
area by Monday morning.

At the same time Monday, a secondary closed low that developed
north of hawaii will steadily move eastward towards northern
california. This secondary feature will drive a deeper
precipitable water plume (1.15-1.25") towards california, which
the strengthening deepening low near seattle will be able to
interact with. This moisture plume looks significant enough to be
classified as a weak to moderate atmospheric river plume and is
expected to bring wet conditions to much of northern california
from Monday through midweek. Forecast confidence remains on the
very low end regarding the positioning of this atmospheric
moisture plume, given that the GFS focuses the bulk of the plume
over the immediate san francisco bay area and the latest run of
the euro has pushed the bulk of the moisture much farther
northward, from ukiah up to central oregon. This is a significant
change, especially when contrasted with previous runs and other
models. Usually we can count on the GFS coming into alignment with
the euro when the euro has high run to run consistency, but the
latest run of the euro removes that possibility. For now, will
treat the last run of the euro as somewhat of an outlier and focus
more on consistency of previous euro runs, with a slight blend
towards the GFS solution in the current forecast package.

Assuming the current forecast package is correct (it will change
in the coming days), the heaviest rain is expected to fall across
the north bay between Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The north
bay mountains and coastal ranges could pick up 4-6" storm total,
with 2.5-3.5" for the inland valleys. Farther southward, 1.25-2.0"
are possible for san francisco, san mateo, alameda and contra
costa counties, plus the santa cruz mountains. Increasingly lesser
amounts are expected farther southward across the south bay and
monterey bay regions as the main moisture plume remains locked in
place farther northward. These numbers will most likely change
given the very low run to run and model to model data consistency.

Southerly winds will be breezy to occasionally gusty with this
storm system but are not expected to be nearly as strong as the
other recent storms that have battered the region since the new
year. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the 60s and
overnight lows in the low 50s.

Models agree that we will see a brief period of drying out later
Thursday into early Friday as a weak ridge develops in the buffer
space between the aforementioned storm system and a second storm
system. This second storm system is expected to bring another
round of unsettled wet, windy weather to the region late next week
through next weekend.

Aviation As of 03:37 am pst Saturday... For 12z tafs.VFR
through tonight with increasing high clouds today. Expect CIGS to
gradually lower into this evening and overnight. Guidance shows
development of patchy low clouds into tomorrow morning. Generally
light winds this morning turning onshore this afternoon.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Light winds this morning turning onshore
in the afternoon, but expected to remain generally light (~10 kt).

Increasing high clouds today lowering into this evening.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR. Light winds around 10 kt becoming
onshore this afternoon. Increasing high clouds throughout the day
with patchy low cloud development overnight.

Marine As of 02:14 am pst Saturday... Generally light west to
northwest winds will continue overnight and tomorrow. Winds will
turn southerly late this weekend and continue into mid-week. Light
to moderate northwest swell will persist into next week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: drp
aviation: as
marine: as
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 12 mi50 min 55°F7 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 15 mi60 min E 5.8 G 9.7 49°F 54°F7 ft1025.8 hPa (+1.4)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 32 mi50 min 55°F2 ft
MEYC1 32 mi74 min 56°F1025.9 hPa
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 40 mi78 min E 1.9 G 6 38°F 1027 hPa30°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 43 mi65 min NW 1 35°F 1026 hPa30°F

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA35 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair37°F27°F67%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E7E7NE5N6NW6W8W6W11W6W9W5S4S6SE6SE6SE7SE5E7E9E6E4NE5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Carmel Cove, Carmel Bay, California
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Carmel Cove
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Sat -- 12:58 AM PST     4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:35 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:07 PM PST     4.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:16 PM PST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.94.63.92.91.81.10.70.91.52.43.344.34.13.52.61.710.70.81.32.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
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Sat -- 03:01 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:48 AM PST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:35 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:22 PM PST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:30 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:56 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:10 PM PST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:46 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.40-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.50.60.60.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.