Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clarksville, VA
May 9, 2024 6:49 PM EDT (22:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:10 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 5:58 AM Moonset 9:26 PM |
FXUS61 KAKQ 091932 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly push through the region later today through tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and storms later Friday into Friday night. A chance for showers continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend.
Dry and warmer weather to start next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Conditional severe weather threat this evening with damaging winds the primary threat.
Quiet wx locally this aftn as we await potential storms later this evening. There remains a good deal of uncertainty surrounding the storm potential, in particular whether sufficient destabilization will be realized to fuel organized convection. However, compared to the previous few days, a frontal boundary draped from NW to SE across the local area (along w/ a weak shortwave aloft) will provide an adequate source of lift and focus for convection. Based on the latest CAMs (HRRR/3km NAM/NSSL-WRF), the highest chance for storms will be focused along a line extending from LKU to RIC to FYJ. This tends to agree well w/ current sfc obs showing an agitated CU field in this same general vicinity. Continue to focus the highest PoPS (50-60%) in this area, with lower PoPs (30%) further E/SE where additional pop-up convection may develop, mainly near land/water interfaces and any established sea breezes. Based on the latest model data, our far SW counties are likely to stay dry through tonight. N and NE of the boundary on the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore, easterly onshore flow will keep these areas stable with little to no risk of thunder. Regarding the severe potential, SPC continues a marginal risk for the entire area; however, this is likely overdone in the aforementioned areas N of the front. S of the boundary, adequate instability (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and around 30 kt of effective shear would argue for at least some potential for stronger storms this evening. In fact, several CAMs show a few updraft helicity tracks across central VA this evening w/ transient supercell features. Still, the overall extent of the svr threat is much lower than originally thought yesterday and Tuesday due to last night's MCS activity moving to our S, preventing sufficient airmass recovery in today's warm sector
So
mainly expecting sub-severe storms w/ an isolated storm or two capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps some larger hail. There is very low chance of a brief tornado near the front where low-level directional shear will be maximized. Highest PoPs shift E tonight, tapering off after 6- 9z/2-5 AM. Fog may also move inland off the ocean onto the eastern shore after ~midnight.
Temps this aftn are generally in the upper 70s and low 80s. With scattered or broken cloud cover for most of the area, not expecting temps to warm much more. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s N to mid 60s S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Another round of showers/storms likely Friday afternoon and evening. While widespread severe is not expected, a few stronger storms are possible.
- Scattered showers possible Saturday with an upper-level disturbance.
Friday starts off mainly dry (with some lingering low clouds and light rain possible over the MD eastern shore). Scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough dives SE and swings through. The sfc front will also push S through the day. The potent nature of the shortwave argues for continuing to trend PoPs up, with 60-70% in the forecast for most of the area now. Forecast soundings show decently steep mid-level lapse rates w/ the cold pool aloft, along with strong deep-layer shear (50-60 kt). The one caveat (and likely limiting factor) will be the availability of any sfc instability. At this time, the highest CAPE is currently forecast to our S, though ~1000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE may develop with some higher dew points pooling along the sfc front. CAMs actually show quite widespread convection, with several of the experimental MPAS CAMs being quite aggressive w/ convective coverage. Additionally, they show a predominantly cellular storm mode, arguing for the potential for hail. The wind threat would be highest across the S where the low-level lapse rates are steeper. Strong low-level shear would also suggest a conditional tornado threat, given a favorable storm mode and low-level thermodynamics. Highs on Fri will show a large range, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s MD ern shore to the low 80s interior NE NC. Temps gradually fall in the late aftn behind the front. Drying out later Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W to the lower 50s E.
The weekend continues to look a bit unsettled, especially across the N/NE portion of the CWA as yet another shortwave drops SE from the wrn Great Lakes, and pushes across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday. This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. Steep lapse rates again suggest a few tstms are possible, though this environment will be much cooler than the past few days. Cannot rule out some small hail in the strongest cores (especially NW). Cool Sat with highs in the low-mid 60s NE to around 70F over the SW. The airmass will be fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (generally 0.10" or less with a little more possible across the NE). Will have PoPs to ~50% over the N late Sat/Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~15-20% in NC. Chilly Sat night w/ upper 40s NW to low 50s SE. A similar story is expected Sunday as the core of the upper low sits just N of the area. This will focus additional showers across the MD Eastern Shore, with lower chances extending SW into the Northern Neck and Piedmont. Highs Sun a little warmer and in the mid 60s ern shore to low-mid 70s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure situates over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday night, favoring dry weather. Highs Monday warm back in the upper 70s with overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s. The high moves offshore Tuesday, with southerly flow funneling moist air towards the region. Unsettled conditions and above average rainfall are therefore expected later Tuesday through most of next week as multiple southern stream systems move ENE towards the mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms are also possible mid to late week. Highs Tue warmest across the E (where precip holds off longest) and in the upper 70s, with lower 70s W. Temps next Wed and Thu hover a few degrees above/below 80F w/ overnight lows around 60F.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR at all terminals this afternoon w/ a developing CU field across mainland VA and NC. Skies are mainly clear on the ern shore (SBY). Also noting some higher clouds sliding through. A frontal boundary is situated across central VA and winds are light and variable near the front. To the S of the boundary, winds are southerly. To the N of the boundary, winds are E/NE.
This boundary could serve to focus storm development later this aftn and evening, especially near RIC. Elsewhere (ORF/PHF/ECG), the shower/storm chc continues to trend lower. Any storm could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. SBY is also likely to see rain showers this evening/tonight, but not expecting thunder due to easterly onshore flow. IFR CIGs (and potentially VSBY) are forecast at SBY late tonight in BR/FG. The front drops further S early Fri morning, potentially serving to focus additional showers/storms for Fri.
Outlook: Expect to see redeveloping showers/tstms later Friday afternoon and evening (with flight restrictions expected).
Mainly dry most of Saturday, but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry Mon.
MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
-Key Messages:
-Small Craft Advisories have been issued north of Parramore Is.
from late Friday morning through Friday night.
-Additional Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Friday night into early Saturday.
A stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn, with the wind ENE 10-15kt N of the boundary, and SW 5-10kt S of the front. Seas are primarily 2-3ft. This boundary will linger over the area tonight through Friday, before dropping S Friday night as low pressure develops and tracks NE off the NC Outer Banks. A NE wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt N of Chincoteague Friday with seas building to 5-6ft. Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. beginning 10 AM Friday and continuing through 6 AM Saturday at this time, but this will likely need to be extended. Otherwise, the wind is expected to become N and increase to 15-20kt Friday night into early Saturday, with seas building to 4-6ft and 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Additional SCAs are likely Friday night into early Saturday.
A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA conditions are possible over the Ches. Bay. High pressure builds over the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system and cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
-Key Message:
-Minor tidal flooding is possible during high tide Friday night into early Saturday.
Another elevated astronomical high tide is forecast for tonight into early Saturday. At this time, tidal anomalies have been steady and the past flood tide was relatively weak. Therefore, water levels are largely expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for tonight/early Saturday, with the exception of some the more sensitive locations. An increasing NE then N wind Friday night into early Saturday will bring the potential for minor tidal flooding with yet another elevated astronomical high tide.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly push through the region later today through tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and storms later Friday into Friday night. A chance for showers continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend.
Dry and warmer weather to start next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
- Conditional severe weather threat this evening with damaging winds the primary threat.
Quiet wx locally this aftn as we await potential storms later this evening. There remains a good deal of uncertainty surrounding the storm potential, in particular whether sufficient destabilization will be realized to fuel organized convection. However, compared to the previous few days, a frontal boundary draped from NW to SE across the local area (along w/ a weak shortwave aloft) will provide an adequate source of lift and focus for convection. Based on the latest CAMs (HRRR/3km NAM/NSSL-WRF), the highest chance for storms will be focused along a line extending from LKU to RIC to FYJ. This tends to agree well w/ current sfc obs showing an agitated CU field in this same general vicinity. Continue to focus the highest PoPS (50-60%) in this area, with lower PoPs (30%) further E/SE where additional pop-up convection may develop, mainly near land/water interfaces and any established sea breezes. Based on the latest model data, our far SW counties are likely to stay dry through tonight. N and NE of the boundary on the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore, easterly onshore flow will keep these areas stable with little to no risk of thunder. Regarding the severe potential, SPC continues a marginal risk for the entire area; however, this is likely overdone in the aforementioned areas N of the front. S of the boundary, adequate instability (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and around 30 kt of effective shear would argue for at least some potential for stronger storms this evening. In fact, several CAMs show a few updraft helicity tracks across central VA this evening w/ transient supercell features. Still, the overall extent of the svr threat is much lower than originally thought yesterday and Tuesday due to last night's MCS activity moving to our S, preventing sufficient airmass recovery in today's warm sector
So
mainly expecting sub-severe storms w/ an isolated storm or two capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps some larger hail. There is very low chance of a brief tornado near the front where low-level directional shear will be maximized. Highest PoPs shift E tonight, tapering off after 6- 9z/2-5 AM. Fog may also move inland off the ocean onto the eastern shore after ~midnight.
Temps this aftn are generally in the upper 70s and low 80s. With scattered or broken cloud cover for most of the area, not expecting temps to warm much more. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s N to mid 60s S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Another round of showers/storms likely Friday afternoon and evening. While widespread severe is not expected, a few stronger storms are possible.
- Scattered showers possible Saturday with an upper-level disturbance.
Friday starts off mainly dry (with some lingering low clouds and light rain possible over the MD eastern shore). Scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough dives SE and swings through. The sfc front will also push S through the day. The potent nature of the shortwave argues for continuing to trend PoPs up, with 60-70% in the forecast for most of the area now. Forecast soundings show decently steep mid-level lapse rates w/ the cold pool aloft, along with strong deep-layer shear (50-60 kt). The one caveat (and likely limiting factor) will be the availability of any sfc instability. At this time, the highest CAPE is currently forecast to our S, though ~1000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE may develop with some higher dew points pooling along the sfc front. CAMs actually show quite widespread convection, with several of the experimental MPAS CAMs being quite aggressive w/ convective coverage. Additionally, they show a predominantly cellular storm mode, arguing for the potential for hail. The wind threat would be highest across the S where the low-level lapse rates are steeper. Strong low-level shear would also suggest a conditional tornado threat, given a favorable storm mode and low-level thermodynamics. Highs on Fri will show a large range, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s MD ern shore to the low 80s interior NE NC. Temps gradually fall in the late aftn behind the front. Drying out later Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W to the lower 50s E.
The weekend continues to look a bit unsettled, especially across the N/NE portion of the CWA as yet another shortwave drops SE from the wrn Great Lakes, and pushes across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday. This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. Steep lapse rates again suggest a few tstms are possible, though this environment will be much cooler than the past few days. Cannot rule out some small hail in the strongest cores (especially NW). Cool Sat with highs in the low-mid 60s NE to around 70F over the SW. The airmass will be fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (generally 0.10" or less with a little more possible across the NE). Will have PoPs to ~50% over the N late Sat/Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~15-20% in NC. Chilly Sat night w/ upper 40s NW to low 50s SE. A similar story is expected Sunday as the core of the upper low sits just N of the area. This will focus additional showers across the MD Eastern Shore, with lower chances extending SW into the Northern Neck and Piedmont. Highs Sun a little warmer and in the mid 60s ern shore to low-mid 70s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure situates over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday night, favoring dry weather. Highs Monday warm back in the upper 70s with overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s. The high moves offshore Tuesday, with southerly flow funneling moist air towards the region. Unsettled conditions and above average rainfall are therefore expected later Tuesday through most of next week as multiple southern stream systems move ENE towards the mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms are also possible mid to late week. Highs Tue warmest across the E (where precip holds off longest) and in the upper 70s, with lower 70s W. Temps next Wed and Thu hover a few degrees above/below 80F w/ overnight lows around 60F.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR at all terminals this afternoon w/ a developing CU field across mainland VA and NC. Skies are mainly clear on the ern shore (SBY). Also noting some higher clouds sliding through. A frontal boundary is situated across central VA and winds are light and variable near the front. To the S of the boundary, winds are southerly. To the N of the boundary, winds are E/NE.
This boundary could serve to focus storm development later this aftn and evening, especially near RIC. Elsewhere (ORF/PHF/ECG), the shower/storm chc continues to trend lower. Any storm could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. SBY is also likely to see rain showers this evening/tonight, but not expecting thunder due to easterly onshore flow. IFR CIGs (and potentially VSBY) are forecast at SBY late tonight in BR/FG. The front drops further S early Fri morning, potentially serving to focus additional showers/storms for Fri.
Outlook: Expect to see redeveloping showers/tstms later Friday afternoon and evening (with flight restrictions expected).
Mainly dry most of Saturday, but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry Mon.
MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
-Key Messages:
-Small Craft Advisories have been issued north of Parramore Is.
from late Friday morning through Friday night.
-Additional Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Friday night into early Saturday.
A stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn, with the wind ENE 10-15kt N of the boundary, and SW 5-10kt S of the front. Seas are primarily 2-3ft. This boundary will linger over the area tonight through Friday, before dropping S Friday night as low pressure develops and tracks NE off the NC Outer Banks. A NE wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt N of Chincoteague Friday with seas building to 5-6ft. Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. beginning 10 AM Friday and continuing through 6 AM Saturday at this time, but this will likely need to be extended. Otherwise, the wind is expected to become N and increase to 15-20kt Friday night into early Saturday, with seas building to 4-6ft and 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Additional SCAs are likely Friday night into early Saturday.
A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA conditions are possible over the Ches. Bay. High pressure builds over the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system and cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
-Key Message:
-Minor tidal flooding is possible during high tide Friday night into early Saturday.
Another elevated astronomical high tide is forecast for tonight into early Saturday. At this time, tidal anomalies have been steady and the past flood tide was relatively weak. Therefore, water levels are largely expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for tonight/early Saturday, with the exception of some the more sensitive locations. An increasing NE then N wind Friday night into early Saturday will bring the potential for minor tidal flooding with yet another elevated astronomical high tide.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCXE CHASE CITY MUNI,VA | 14 sm | 14 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 64°F | 61% | 29.64 | |
| KHNZ HENDERSONOXFORD,NC | 16 sm | 29 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 29.65 |
Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Petersburg
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT 3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 01:07 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT 3.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:23 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT 3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 01:07 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT 3.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:23 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.5 |
| 4 am |
| 3.5 |
| 5 am |
| 3.9 |
| 6 am |
| 3.9 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Puddledock Sand, Tide feet
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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