Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilauea, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 9:15 AM HST (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:02AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilauea, HI
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location: 36.66, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 281348
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
348 am hst Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
Breezy trade winds associated with high pressure north of the state
will continue through Thursday, before slightly trending down over
the upcoming weekend. Dry and stable conditions will limit shower
activity over the state through Thursday, with the best chances
favoring windward and mauka areas. A slight increase in windward and
mauka shower coverage will be possible Friday through the weekend as
a weak upper disturbance moves into the area from the east.

Discussion
Recently animated water vapor loop showed some middle- to upper-
level moisture pooling northward across the region due to a weak
upper low centered several hundred miles west-southwest of kauai.

This moisture was supporting mostly transparent high clouds
lifting northward toward niihau and kauai. At the surface, the
latest analysis showed a ridge of high pressure positioned north
of the area that was supporting breezy trade winds. The early
morning upper air soundings exhibited strong subsidence
inversions with very dry profiles (inversions around 6500 ft).

Precipitable water (pw) values came in around 1.15". The latest
satellite-derived pw imagery reflected this dry air and didn't
indicate any potential near-term changes or moisture surges
upstream of the islands within the trades.

The latest short-term model guidance has initialized well with the
current pattern and continues to depict dry and stable conditions
persisting through Thursday. The previously discussed high clouds
will likely shift west of the area as the weak upper low tracks
westward and away from the state. Model pw values will remain
around and slightly below average for this time of year through
Thursday. This will support below average rainfall chances, with
the best chances favoring windward and mauka areas through the
late night and early morning periods. Trade winds will remain
breezy each day with strong gusts, especially through the
afternoon periods.

Friday through the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance remains in
decent agreement and supports an upper low, currently centered
several hundred miles northeast of the big island, cutting off and
drifting back toward the state. Guidance also depicts a weak surface
and mid-level reflection (subtle trough) approaching and moving over
the islands from east to west. Model pws are forecast to increase to
above average due to a rise in low- to mid-level moisture moving
into the area associated with these features. Lowering upper heights
combined with a weak surface trough and higher moisture will support
increasing trade wind shower activity. Trade winds are forecast to
weaken but hold in the moderate to locally breezy range.

Early next week, guidance supports dry and stable conditions
returning as the previously discussed upper low shifts west of the
islands an fills. Trade winds are forecast to strengthen and become
breezy with locally strong gusts as high pressure remains north of
the state.

Aviation
A narrow band of the low clouds, oriented east to west with
embedded light showers, is currently moving through the island
chain from east to west with the trade winds. Radar shows
scattered light showers falling and dissipating over the windward
areas of most islands. Most, if not all of these showers, should
have moved beyond the smaller islands by mid- morning. There
appears to be quite a bit more clouds upwind of the big island,
which might keep that part of the big island under a predominant
cig of 45 hundred feet and some scattered light showers into the
afternoon hours.

Relatively dry conditions should prevail during the afternoon
hours for the smaller islands, although a broken deck is expected
to linger over the mountain ranges throughout today. There will
be brief encounters of MVFR cig with these trade wind clouds,
bases at 25 hundred feet, blowing by from time to time.

Restriction to visibility is limited to 5 miles, nothing less,
from these relatively light showers. Leeward big island and the
kau slopes will cloud up this afternoon with a shower or two.

These clouds will be dissipating during the evening hours.

A broken to overcast layer of cirrus, above fl200, is affecting
primarily oahu and kauai. This cirrus is expected to thin out
later this morning.

There is a lull with the low level trades now, but they will be
turning locally strong and gusty by noon. Thus, airmet tango for
low level turb will continue beyond 22z.

There are no other airmets in effect, and none is expected
today.

Marine
The small craft advisory (sca) includes the kaiwi channel, maui
windward waters, oahu leeward waters, the typical windy zones
around maui and the big island. The SCA is in effect through
Thursday, and may continue for some zones into Friday, followed by
slightly weaker trade winds this weekend.

The locally strong trades will produce choppy surf along east
facing shores through the week. A small short-period northwest
swell is also forecast from Friday into this weekend.

Small pulses of swell energy from the southeast through southwest
will continue bringing near normal summertime surf along south
facing shores. Reinforcing long-period south swells will generate
a slight bump in surf heights from Thursday into the weekend.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst Thursday for oahu leeward
waters-kaiwi channel-maui county windward waters-maalaea bay-
pailolo channel-alenuihaha channel-big island leeward waters-big
island southeast waters.

Discussion... Gibbs
aviation... Lau
marine... Morrison


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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.