Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilauea, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:50PM Friday November 16, 2018 12:12 PM HST (22:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:45PMMoonset 12:05AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilauea, HI
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location: 36.66, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 162010
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
1010 am hst Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure building far north of the islands will bring
strengthening northeast trade winds this weekend, with breezy trade
winds continuing into next week. The high will push a weakening
frontal boundary over the islands this weekend, while an upper-level
trough brings some instability. An increase in windward showers is
expected, with showers most active over kauai tonight, oahu and maui
county on Saturday, and on the big island Saturday night and Sunday.

Fewer windward showers are expected early next week.

Discussion
A surface high building N of the area the next couple of days will
push a dissipating frontal boundary over the islands from the N and
ne, which is expected to bring an increase in windward showers while
also bringing strengthening NE trade winds. An upper trough axis
currently near kauai will gradually slide E and weaken the next
several days, taking the layered mid- and high-level clouds of the
last couple days with it. In the meantime, instability associated
with the upper trough has brought isolated thunderstorms to waters
around kauai this morning, and a slight chance of thunderstorms has
been included today for windward portions of kauai and oahu and
adjacent waters.

Latest goes-17 visible imagery shows limited low-level moisture
immediately upstream of most islands, except for scattered to broken
showery low clouds near and NE of kauai. This moisture is associated
with an ene-wsw oriented diffuse band of low clouds, marking a
weakening frontal boundary associated with a surface low near the
gulf of alaska. While predominantly comprised of shallow low clouds
near the islands, a few thunderstorms developed along this boundary
near the islands early this morning. Stronger NE winds and slightly
cooler air lie N of the boundary, which will be moving down the
island chain through Sunday night.

Latest models indicate the boundary will be over kauai tonight,
spreading to oahu and portions of maui county on Saturday as the
high currently to the NW moves to a position N of the islands. The
boundary will spread to the big island Saturday night through Sunday
night, moving S of the big island by Monday. Although the upper
trough will progressively move E through the weekend, the mid-level
reflection (in the form of a weak closed low at 500 mb) will linger
sw of the islands. The associated mid-level cold pool and trough
will extend over the islands, bringing modest instability. The
increasing NE winds will ensure that most rainfall will occur along
windward slopes and coasts, with showers increasing in coverage as
the boundary moves across (and the instability may allow for a few
brief downpours).

The mid-level trough will dissipate early next week as the surface
high tracks slowly E well to the N of the islands. Locally breezy
ene trade winds will deliver passing clouds and showers to windward
areas. Winds may diminish and veer to the SE by the end of the week,
and showers may increase again as another low aloft develops nearby.

Aviation
High pressure will build northwest of the state resulting in
strengthening trade winds today. High level clouds along the
subtropical jet will gradually shift eastward as an upper level
trough moves over the islands. These high clouds range from fl200-
350. Strong directional and speed shear persists over the island
chain at these heights. Airmet tango remains posted for tempo
moderate turbulence in fl200-350 entire area.

The atmosphere will become more unstable as the upper trough
approaches. Combined with increasing trade winds, this will cause
showers to become more frequent over windward sections, with areas
of MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration possible. Airmet sierra
may be required for mountain obscuration later today and or tonight.

Marine
Trade winds will continue to strengthen today through Saturday as
high pressure builds in far north northwest of the area. A small
craft advisory is in effect over the typically windy waters around
maui county and the big island. These strong winds are expected to
continue into early next week. A new northwest swell is producing
seas above the 10 foot advisory threshold over exposed waters around
kauai, oahu and maui county. Thus a small craft advisory is in
effect for those waters as well.

A high surf advisory is in effect for shores exposed to the new
northwest swell. This swell is expected to peak today, then lower
gradually tonight and Saturday while swinging around to a more
northerly directions. Another small to moderate size northwest swell
is expected to gradually build on Monday, peak Monday night and
early Tuesday, then lower gradually into Wednesday. Small, mainly
background south swells are expected through the weekend and on into
the middle of next week. An uptick in short period choppy surf can
be expected along east facing shores beginning Friday as the trade
winds strengthen.

An upper level trough centered just southwest of the state will
allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms today over waters around
kauai and oahu.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 am hst Saturday for north and west facing
shores of niihau, kauai, oahu, and molokai, and for north facing
shores of maui.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst Sunday for maalaea bay-pailolo
channel-alenuihaha channel-big island leeward waters-big island
southeast waters.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst Saturday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-oahu
windward waters-kaiwi channel-maui county windward waters.

Discussion... Birchard
aviation... Foster
marine... Burke


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.