Emporia, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emporia, VA

May 7, 2024 6:28 PM EDT (22:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM
Moonrise 4:36 AM   Moonset 6:55 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 339 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Through 7 pm - W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tonight - N winds 5 kt, becoming S in the late evening and early morning, then becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.

Fri - W winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop in the afternoon.

Sat night - S winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 339 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just to the north of the area this evening. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through midweek. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through Friday into Friday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emporia, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 071910 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Midday sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary across the Delmarva region, with high pressure well offshore. Aloft, shortwave energy is located near the NC OBX while a ridge axis extends from the Deep South northward into the Great Lakes vicinity. These features will be the main focus for shower and tstm activity through the rest of this afternoon into early tonight. Additionally, given the weak sfc flow, sea breezes are likely to develop and move inland over the next few hrs, which could serve as triggers for additional convection. Coverage overall should be less than yesterday given broad-scale subsidence from the ridge aloft and less lee troughing.
CAMs generally focus most of the convection along the I-64 corridor and on the MD Eastern Shore, with perhaps a few stray cells impinging on our wrn CWA border this evening. PoPs are 20-40%.
Steepening low-level lapse rates and decent instability (1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) argue for the potential for localized damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Heavy rain could also pose a risk of isolated flash flooding given many areas have received a 1-3" of rain over the past few days. SPC maintains a marginal risk for svr wx for most of the area. High temps this aftn should top out around in the mid-upper 70s NE to the low-mid 80s SW. On the Northern Neck, persistent low cloud cover has prevented robust sfc heating and highs may underperform a few degrees there. Storms dissipate shortly after sunset given the loss of sfc heating. Will need to keep an eye on any upstream convective complexes from the OH River Valley tonight as some CAMs hint at some residual echoes clipping nrn portions of the FA. This scenario remains highly uncertain so will keep PoPs low at this time.

There also is a strong signal for marine fog moving inland onto at least the ern half of the MD Eastern Shore tonight.
Visibilities could drop below a 1/2 mile at times. Overnight lows will be mild and in the mid 60s for most of the area (upper 50s along the Atlantic coast of the ern shore).

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

While the ridge flattens some into Wednesday, low-level thicknesses will be at their greatest, favoring the hottest temps of the week.
Most guidance agrees on nearly everywhere flirting w/ 90 degrees with some output even suggesting a few sites reaching 92-93F. Even those on the eastern shore should reach the upper 80s. Given dew points in the 60s (low 60s NW/mid-upper 60s SE), aftn heat indices approach the mid and potentially upper 90s. The other story will be continued chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. With a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes and an approaching (but flattening) mid/upper trough, stronger flow aloft is forecast to overspread the FA. Area-averaged soundings show more than adequate bulk shear to support svr wx (~40 kt). Additionally, the aforementioned heat/humidity will favor moderate-strong instability with MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg in the aftn, highest across the S/SE. The one caveat is we again are lacking a prominent trigger for storms w/ the WSW sfc flow and ridge aloft, so may have to again rely on residual boundaries or upstream perturbations to spark convection. SPC has upgraded the SW half of the area to a slight risk, which is where the highest confidence resides regarding convective coverage and strong instability. Would not be surprised to see this expanded to the rest of the FA in future updates. Steep low and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates argue for both large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats from any storm that can develop. Convection may linger into the evening and overnight as instability will be slow to wane. Also, there is a better signal in the guidance that a mesoscale convective system (or its remnants) will move through at some point Wed night, which explains the elevated overnight and early morning PoPs. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 60s.

The highest coverage of severe wx is expected Thursday as even stronger flow aloft overspreads the region and a sfc cold front approaches from the W. Aloft, the approaching upper trough will induce height falls and provide more widespread forcing for ascent.
SPC has a slight risk for the entire area. Some of the CAMs continue to suggest prior-day shower/storm activity may linger into the morning hrs Thursday, which could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. However, it is notoriously difficult to time these features (even in the <24 hr timeframe) and the models tend to perform poorly in their development and evolution. Damaging winds and large hail continue to look like the most likely threats from any storm. Given the frontal forcing, it seems probable that storms would eventually grow upscale in a linear-type feature, with widespread damaging winds becoming increasingly favored. Low-level hodograph curvature is also somewhat enhanced near the front, though high LCLs would argue against a robust tornado threat. With more clouds around, high temps will be cooler and generally in the 80s (warmest S/SE, coolest N). Also cooler Thu night with lows in the upper 50s-low 60s.

Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA At this time, severe wx is not expected. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible far S).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

There remains some uncertainty for both Friday night and through the weekend. The 12z deterministic GFS continues to phase the upper trough with srn stream energy Fri night (this is because it is slower and more amplified with the trough). This leads to sfc low pressure formation along the baroclinic zone just offshore of the Carolinas. Such a scenario would push widespread stratiform rainfall N towards the FA Fri evening and overnight. The 12z ECMWF suppresses this feature further S as it is depicts a more neutral trough tilt. At this time, will keep the highest PoPs across the SE assuming the sfc low passes well to our S. Beyond this, the weekend weather pattern will feature yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks mainly dry from late Sunday through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s), potentially warming further into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

Flying conditions have generally improved across the area this afternoon. Pockets of patchy MVFR CIGs persist at RIC, as well as further N and NE across the Northern Neck. Otherwise, most terminals are expected to be VFR this aftn (outside of any showers or storms) w/ cloud bases 3-5k ft AGL. Regarding tstms, continue to include VCTS in the TAFs in the 18Z Tue-00Z Wed timeframe. Brief heavy rain (with IFR VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds this aftn are light and variable in direction, though they will gradually become S 5-10 kt later into this evening. Winds may turn to the NE later this aftn at ORF as a light sea breeze moves onshore. Light SW winds forecast tonight. Additional showers/storms possible Wed, though this is mainly outside the TAF period.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Svr wx is possible. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Latest analysis continues to show a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the northern mid-Atlantic, with 1018+mb surface high pressure centered south of Bermuda. A weak lee trough continues to sharpen west of the waters, allowing for S-SW winds over the region ~10-12 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, with seas generally 2 to 4ft with some weak E-SE swell at 8-10 seconds.

High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, with (sub-SCA) S-SW flow also persisting throughout the midweek period. A series of upper waves traverse north of the area, and bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Timing will continue to favor the late afternoon/evening into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low approaching from the W-SW with the trailing cold frontal passage crossing the waters Friday morning/afternoon. Winds quickly veer to the W-NW post-frontal Friday afternoon. A brief CAA surge could bring a brief window of SCAs to the Bay and lower James Friday night, with winds then diminishing through the day Saturday.
Winds quickly veer back to the SSW again Saturday night and Sunday ahead of another weaker front. That front crosses Sunday night, with winds eventually veering back to the NNW Sunday night and into early next week. Aside from enhanced winds/seas in convection over the next few days and a brief period of potential SCA-level winds Friday night, conditions remain largely Sub-SCA through the period. Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week.
week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

The upcoming new moon cycle and the Perigee from this past weekend will lead to continued positive tidal anomalies over the next few days. Given the ongoing light southerly flow, some nuisance to low- end minor coastal flood impacts are possible for coastal communities along the upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River during the upcoming astronomically higher high tide cycle late this evening into Wednesday morning. Added some Coastal Flood Advisories for Lancaster and Northumberland Counties (Lewisetta) and from Accomack VA north to Somerset, Dorchester, and Wicomico (MD)
counties on the bay side of the eastern shore. Potential for some additional nuisance to near minor water levels over the next couple of days before tidal anomalies ease later this week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ077-078-099.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 54 mi52 min NNW 1.9G3.9 78°F 74°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 61 mi58 min E 6G8 70°F 29.76
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 64 mi58 min NW 1.9G2.9 77°F 70°F29.74


Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEMV EMPORIAGREENSVILLE RGNL,VA 2 sm13 mincalm10 smClear81°F64°F58%29.77
KLVL BRUNSWICK MUNI,VA 17 sm13 minWSW 04Clear82°F64°F55%29.77
KIXA HALIFAXNORTHAMPTON RGNL,NC 24 sm13 minW 0610 smClear81°F68°F66%29.75
Link to 5 minute data for KEMV


Wind History from EMV
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
   
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Petersburg
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Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
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0.9
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3.1
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3.8
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3.6
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3
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2.3
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1.6
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0.9
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0.4
11
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0
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0.1
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0.9
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2.8
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2.7
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2.1
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1.4
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0.9
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0.4
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0.2


Tide / Current for Puddledock Sand
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Puddledock Sand, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   
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Wakefield, VA,





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