Monday, March27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Middles, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:52PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:36 AM EDT (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 6:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middles, KY
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location: 36.66, -83.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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Fxus63 kjkl 270809
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ky
409 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 407 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
this morning the surface analysis shows a weakening frontal
boundary to our west and another surface low across western ok.

This weakening surface boundary to the west is having little
influences on surface winds or temperatures. The bigger influence
on temperatures this morning has been with the breaks in the
clouds which is leading to some temperature splits. Also the fog
is locally dense which could also be holding back temperatures to
an extent. This surface boundary will likely lift north through
the day, as more of a warm front if anything. Therefore we remain
in the warm airmass across eastern ky today. The locally dense fog
is expected to lift through the early morning hours.

All eyes turn to the aforementioned surface low in western ok and
upper level short wave expected to lift into the midwest through
the day. This will induce height falls through the day from west
to east across the ohio and tennessee valleys. Also this will
induce a LLJ that will creep north today and lead to further lift
and moisture. It does look like we will see breaks in the clouds
early in the day and this could lead to modestly unstable
environment. Cloud cover will also be the caveat as it could rob
the potential destabilization. Given the previously mentioned llj
and increasing winds with height we will have sufficient shear in
place across the region for strong storms. The shear is more
unidirectional and therefore think storm mode will be more
multicell or perhaps line segments. Model soundings do show a eml
in the mid levels with better reflection in the 00z nam. Given
this and dependent on low level lapse rates nearing the 8 c/km
through the day will be enough to support marginally severe wind
risk. Also the eml, reasonable shear, and low freezing levels at
or below 10 kft will support marginal hail risk as well. Given
some of the caveats and climatology think the marginal risk from
spc is reasonable. The best chances of seeing stronger storms
right now would be along and west of the i-75 corridor. However,
many of the cams suggest a line segment could in fact move
northeast along and near the i-64 corridor this afternoon.

Therefore did increase pops across that area this afternoon, but
this will have to be monitored in subsequent updates.

This surface low is expected to move into the ohio valley tonight
and overall best lift will come tonight where height falls will
be maximized. Therefore did opt to bring the cat pops through
tonight into the overnight from west to east. Pops will wane
through the day on Tuesday, as the upper level wave moves east and
front pushes across the region. This wave will dampen out and
front will weaken therefore not expecting a big airmass change.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 405 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
the models are in decent agreement aloft at the start of the
extended portion of the forecast with questions arising quickly by
the end of the week as spread increases. They all depict a
weakening wave departing to the east of kentucky early in the
period - pushed along by a northern stream trough pivoting
through new england. This leaves ridging behind over the ohio and
tennessee valleys ahead of a deep trough rolling east through the
southern plains. Already at this time, though, the models are
slightly out of step - the ECMWF further east and north with the
core of its trough compared to the GFS and laggard cmc. These
differences are steady state through Thursday as the individual
models move their trough centers north and east into the central
plains while ridging slips east of our area and mid level
southwest flow commences over kentucky bringing some energy
through by evening. The broad trough will progress into the ohio
valley on Friday as the GFS hangs back when compared to the more
progressive and weaker ecmwf. As this occurs, a general weakening
of the trough itself will spread its energy more broadly through
the region with its 5h axis passing later that night. Another
bout of ridging follows for the weekend over kentucky while
the next broad and deep trough plows its way through the desert
southwest. With the models still settling into a stable solution
will favor a general blend - accepting the broader trend as
represented by their consensus.

Sensible weather will feature a generally mild to warm period of
weather through the extended due to eastern kentucky finding
itself in the midst of ridging aloft and mainly on the warm side
of the wx system moving across the region through the rest of the
week. While there may be some fluctuation or brief movement south
of a cold front to the north of the state on Wednesday, this will
occur in an environment of rising heights and climbing low level
thickness yielding a mild and near normal day with temperatures
hindered more by cloud cover than any advection. Thursday will see
warm and increasingly humid conditions as low pressure lifting to
the northwest of the area will bring its warm sector over the
state along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms. The
fairly slow movement of this relatively stacked low will linger
the shower and thunderstorm chances for the area through the day
Friday, though temperatures will be down a bit from Thursday - but
still mild. By Saturday, the low will be well east of the area
and result in some CAA on northwest winds for our area as high
pressure moves in to dry out the region. This high will gradually
moderate through the latter part of the weekend, but readings will
not get too far from normal for this time of year. The best
chances for any severe weather appears to be Thursday afternoon
and evening as the upper system, and its winds, will be stronger
than on Friday with more instability available ahead of the
system's occluding cold front.

Made some minor - terrain based - changes to lows for most nights
of the extended considering the times that appear favorable for
inversions and radiational cooling of the sheltered valleys. As
for pops - did not deviate much from the consensus guidance as it
appeared reasonable for the main wx system and its structure
passing through from Thursday into Friday night.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 122 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
coverage of showers have decreased this hour, but not out of the
question that a shower will move over sym. That said, the upstream
ob at iob stayedVFR based on the obs and therefore opted to keep
symVFR. Some guidance still suggests a layer of stratocu is not
out of the question overnight, but the trend in the guidance has
beenVFR cigs. This will be tough to forecast given the scatter
holes in the cloud deck seen in the IR sat. These holes in the
clouds will also lead to fog particularly in the valleys and areas
that saw rain today. Given the latest guidance did opt to keep
the TAF sitesVFR for now. Then the challenge will be how much
convection develops and where for this afternoon. Right now will
add showers and vcts to all sites at 18z and some of these will
probably linger into the evening. The winds are expected to
remain light generally out of the south and southwest through the
taf period. However, any stronger thunderstorm that develop this
afternoon could contain gusty winds.

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories

Short term... Dj
long term... Greif
aviation... Dj

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Middlesboro, Middlesboro-Bell County Airport, KY3 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair47°F46°F100%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from 1A6 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3SE3CalmSE7S5S4S5S3S3S7S6S6SW4S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS3S7S7
2 days agoCalmCalmS6S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Jackson, KY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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