Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
May 8, 2024 5:51 AM EDT (09:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 5:38 AM Moonset 8:36 PM |
FXUS63 KJKL 080931 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 531 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Our main thunderstorm potential lasts into early Thursday, with some showers then possible at times through early next week.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible until late tonight or early Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, but there is also a risk of tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.
- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold front passing on Thursday will bring cooler temperatures from Friday through early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024
An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024
Cooler air will continue to flow into the region behind a cold front departing to the southeast on Thursday night.
Significant precip will be gone by Thursday night, with only a slight chance of showers lingering. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend. A mid-upper level trough supporting the cool weather will be anchored over eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS. Multiple waves will rotate around the trough, with one passing over our area on Friday, and another on Saturday. Each of these will bring a potential for an uptick in showers. Have held back on the mention of thunder, with forecast soundings suggesting convection won't be deep enough.
The trough should be lifting out to the northeast on Sunday, with rising geopotential heights locally. Along with warm air advection and at least partial sunshine, warming temperatures will result.
After this point, model differences become more significant. An upper low lingering above the western CONUS over the next several days will begin to open up and get picked up in flow aloft. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF to bring it eastward, and has light precip arriving here from the west on Monday and carrying into Tuesday. The slower ECMWF does not generate light precip until Tuesday. A model blend would suggest nothing more than a slight chance of precip Monday, followed by a chance on Tuesday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024
Mainly VFR was reported at issuance time with some scattered low clouds and MVFR in eastern KY. MVFR or lower was reported with convection nearer to the OH River with strong wind gusts. This convection should spread south and east during the first 6 to 19 hours of the period and lead to another period of lower CIGs and visibilities at least as the storms pass, but still there is some uncertainty at how far reductions will be and how this evolved and if any of the TAF sites will be more affected than others.
Another relative lull in activity is anticipated between 12Z to 18Z. Another round or rounds of convection are anticipated thereafter with some MVFR and IFR reductions at that activity passes. The winds will remain out of the south and southwest at 10 KT or less sustained through the period, but some brief higher gusts in excess of 30KT are possible with any thunderstorm activity, especially after 18Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 531 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Our main thunderstorm potential lasts into early Thursday, with some showers then possible at times through early next week.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible until late tonight or early Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, but there is also a risk of tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.
- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold front passing on Thursday will bring cooler temperatures from Friday through early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024
An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024
Cooler air will continue to flow into the region behind a cold front departing to the southeast on Thursday night.
Significant precip will be gone by Thursday night, with only a slight chance of showers lingering. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend. A mid-upper level trough supporting the cool weather will be anchored over eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS. Multiple waves will rotate around the trough, with one passing over our area on Friday, and another on Saturday. Each of these will bring a potential for an uptick in showers. Have held back on the mention of thunder, with forecast soundings suggesting convection won't be deep enough.
The trough should be lifting out to the northeast on Sunday, with rising geopotential heights locally. Along with warm air advection and at least partial sunshine, warming temperatures will result.
After this point, model differences become more significant. An upper low lingering above the western CONUS over the next several days will begin to open up and get picked up in flow aloft. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF to bring it eastward, and has light precip arriving here from the west on Monday and carrying into Tuesday. The slower ECMWF does not generate light precip until Tuesday. A model blend would suggest nothing more than a slight chance of precip Monday, followed by a chance on Tuesday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024
Mainly VFR was reported at issuance time with some scattered low clouds and MVFR in eastern KY. MVFR or lower was reported with convection nearer to the OH River with strong wind gusts. This convection should spread south and east during the first 6 to 19 hours of the period and lead to another period of lower CIGs and visibilities at least as the storms pass, but still there is some uncertainty at how far reductions will be and how this evolved and if any of the TAF sites will be more affected than others.
Another relative lull in activity is anticipated between 12Z to 18Z. Another round or rounds of convection are anticipated thereafter with some MVFR and IFR reductions at that activity passes. The winds will remain out of the south and southwest at 10 KT or less sustained through the period, but some brief higher gusts in excess of 30KT are possible with any thunderstorm activity, especially after 18Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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