Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middles, KY

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Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday June 20, 2019 12:53 AM EDT (04:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middles, KY
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location: 36.66, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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Fxus63 kjkl 200248
afdjkl
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ky
1048 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1048 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
portions of the area continue to be under a severe thunderstorm
watch. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently entering
into the area. However, as expected convection has been weakening
with time. Mucapes have dropped off quite rapidly, falling to
between 750 and 1250 j kg, with the greater instability in the
south. The line is responding in kind, weakening rapidly across
the north but maintaining itself in the south closer to the tn
state line. At present we have seen gusts as high as about 30 to
40 mph just to our west. Still seeing some bowing segments within
the line so expect there could still be a few gusts a bit higher.

Updated pops and temperatures towards latest hourly trends, which
for the most part were on track.

Update issued at 823 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
early evening update for issuance of severe thunderstorm watch
number 403. Line of thunderstorms is moving across the
commonwealth from the west. Regional IR satellite showing some
slight cooling to cloud tops out west as this complex of storms
rolls eastward. These storms have had a history of producing wind
damage. There is some expectation that these storms will weaken
some as they progress eastward. Effective shear is ample at around
30 kts by the time storms roll into eastern kentucky. But sbcapes
will decrease with the loss of diurnal heating, from around 2000
j kg at present to less than 1000 j kg by the end of the watch
valid time. Effective and mlcapes are even a bit lower. Cams
suggest a decrease in strength and coverage to storms as well.

However, based on storm history and ingredients that will be in
place through the remainder of the evening felt it was prudent to
go with a watch. Main threat will be damaging winds. Any
thunderstorms will still be able to produce some heavy rainfall.

Pwats are still quite high. Saving grace may be that these cold
pool driven storms are a bit more progressive than more recent
storms have been. Thus flash flood threat may become more isolated
in nature through the evening.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 507 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
the latest surface map features deepening surface low pressure
across western illinois, with a nearly stationary boundary
extended to the east across the ohio valley. A surface cold
front is aligned to the southwest towards the southern plains,
with a lead surface trough arced south to southwest, positioned
just west of the mississippi river. Aloft, broad troughing is
taking shape across the central conus, with two distinct short
waves noted. The first one is spiraling east northeast across
northern missouri, with a another one moving across the plains.

The models are in good agreement through the short term. The
plains trough will shift east across the mississippi valley
through Thursday, reaching the eastern seaboard by early Friday
morning. Surface low pressure will gradually deepen as it moves
across the ohio valley tonight into Thursday, with a cold front
moving across the commonwealth.

Scattered ongoing convection across eastern kentucky will likely
temporarily dwindle as we lose heating into early this evening.

More organized convection will then threaten areas later this
evening into the overnight hours from west to east, as the short
wave moves in across the ohio valley. Heavy rainfall will be the
main threat with this convection; however, any surviving line
segments may also carry some brief stronger wind gusts as well.

Some of the cams also indicate more of split in the convection as
well as it heads deeper into eastern kentucky, as the best forcing
remains just to our north, while the better instability remains
south.

A relative lull in the action will occur into Thursday morning,
before the trough axis and surface cold front approach in the
afternoon, bringing one more round of showers and storms to the
area. These will be more progressive in nature; however, given the
more saturated conditions expected by that point, it probably will
not take much additional rainfall to cause potential hydro
problems.

Lows tonight will be balmy once again, with mid to upper 60s
expected. Highs on Thursday will be around 80, with somewhat
cooler temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected Thursday night
behind the frontal passage.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 440 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
the models indicate a continuing active pattern, with chances of
thunderstorms every day through the extended. From Friday through
the weekend, an upper level ridge will dominate the area. However, a
series of shortwaves will progress through this during this time.

Then, a trough will move over the ohio valley for early next week,
but the models begin to diverge in solution at that point.

At the surface, a low pressure system will slowly move from the
central plains up to the north of the great lakes into canada and
eventually on to the east. An associated warm front will then slowly
progress up over the commonwealth from Friday through early Sunday.

The state will be in the warm sector for Sunday before the system
moves further north for next week. High pressure will then build
into southeastern kentucky by midweek.

However, for much of the time beginning Saturday, eastern kentucky
will be under the influence of low level southwest flow. This
pattern will usher in warm, moist air up from the gulf and keep
showers and afternoon evening thunderstorms in the forecast for the
majority of the long term. The models have hinted at some mcs
activity Friday into Saturday, even with the region under the
influence of an upper level ridge. At this time, the MCS looks to
originate over the iowa illinois area at the axis of greatest
instability and will progress to the southeast. But, confidence is
low how much of this will affect the eastern kentucky area. Beyond
Saturday, a more summer-like diurnal pattern will be the story for
showers and storms through Tuesday.

High temperatures will begin slightly cooler Friday afternoon, with
upper 70s to low 80s expected. However, highs generally in the mid
80s will then persist through next week. Low temperatures will also
begin a bit cooler, in the low to mid 60s, for Saturday morning.

However, lows will mainly be in the upper 60s and even to 70 degrees
in places through Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning lows will then
be in the mid 60s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 823 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
portions of the area have been added into a severe thunderstorm
watch. Tafs basically reflect the expected arrival of storms
during the evening. Otherwise looking at the threat of showers
and or thunderstorm on and off through the period. There may be a
period of MVFR CIGS during Thursday morning as the surface cold
front passes through the area. Winds will generally be light
through the period, except gusty around any thunderstorms. Winds
will veer out of the west with time through Thursday afternoon.

Jkl watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Thursday evening for kyz044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.

Update... Ray
short term... Geogerian
long term... Cgal
aviation... Ray


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Middlesboro, Middlesboro-Bell County Airport, KY3 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair69°F69°F100%1008.1 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S5S3CalmS6S6SW5CalmS6S3S6S5SW3S4S6SW7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW7
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, KY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.