Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
May 16, 2024 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 1:16 PM Moonset 2:07 AM |
FXUS63 KJKL 162015 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- After a lull in shower and thunderstorm chances for most places tonight, higher chances return to close out the week and carry over into Saturday and Saturday evening, before tapering off Saturday night into Sunday.
- High pressure brings dry weather back to the area Sunday night through Tuesday. Couple areas of low pressure will bring rain back to the area Tuesday night through Thursday.
- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend. A further warm up is then expected into the first part of next week.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
The models exhibited some differences today regarding sensible weather across eastern Kentucky the next few days. The system that will influence our weather Friday into Saturday looks to be a developing storm system that will move out of the southern Plains Friday and Friday night, and then across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. A few rain showers were popping here and there is a few of our eastern counties this afternoon, and it appears this activity will continue until the sun begins to set this evening. After that, we should see dry weather through the night. With none of the models showing any convection continuing after dark in our area, decided to keep things dry after 23Z. The NAMNEST, NAM12, and HRRR models were the most robust with shower and storm activity around eastern Kentucky tonight through Saturday. The upper pattern currently features a warm front now situated north of the Ohio River, which was previously seen as a trigger for convection in our northwest counties this evening, but with this boundary now being analyzed well out of our area, it does not appear the front will play a factor in convective activity in our area this evening.
The latest model consensus seems to be pointing toward having the first showers and storms moving into our northwest very late tonight to around dawn on Friday, with activity gradually spreading eastward and increasing in coverage through out the day on Friday. A new wrinkle in the latest model data is the production of a large and robust MCS far to our south that will be moving across the southern portions of the states along the Gulf of Mexico. The models, to varying degrees, have this southern MCS cutting off the northward moisture off of the Gulf, thereby decreasing the coverage of showers and storms across KY and TN Friday and Friday night. The latest SREF runs took this scenario to the extreme, and had very little precip affecting eastern Kentucky on Friday, with scattered activity occurring early Friday morning, but quickly dissipating by around 16Z, and having not much else occurring until later in the day in our northern counties and keeping Saturday almost entirely dry. That being said, the solutions of the NAMNEST and HRRR runs seemed more reasonable, as a moist air mass is already in place, and we should see enough moisture return to support scattered to at times numerous showers and storms around our area heading into the weekend.
Temperatures still look to be quite warm on Friday, perhaps a few degrees above normal, with mild lows on tap tonight and Friday night. Winds should see be fairly light heading into the weekend as well. No major weather concerns at this time, but there is a small chance of excessive rainfall occurring with some of the storms on Friday, or where multiple storms move over the same areas repeatedly.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
Models are indicating an upper level split flow expected across the CONUS at the start of the period, with the southern portion of the flow having troughiness from the ArkLaTex region northeastward over the Ohio Valley. A weak upper low is expected to be embedded in this trough, but there is poor model agreement on its position. Ample moisture should be present beneath and ahead of the upper trough, allowing for precip. The regime will shift east with time, but the aforementioned model discrepancies result in uncertainty down the line as to how quickly it departs. A model blend being used for the forecast continues to lack details, but has an overall decreasing POP trend during the weekend, overlaid with diurnal tendencies. Dry weather is forecast by late Sunday evening. Ridging at all levels approaching and passing over from late Sunday night through Tuesday will result in dry weather persisting during that time. Slightly drier low level air should also arrive.
Beyond this, a shortwave trough aloft originating in the northern part of the flow is expected to approach and pass over Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the bulk of the wave to our north. This supports a surface cold front which both the GFS and ECMWF pass through our area on Wednesday afternoon or evening. The best upper level support is weakening and shifting to our north as the system goes by. It would also appear that the best moisture return ahead of the front will be to our west and probably not make it here before cold fropa.
These considerations as well as models only generating light precip here, will limit the POP to chance category.
By Thursday, the deterministic/operational ECMWF has deepened an upper level trough over Ontario and the eastern CONUS much more so than the deterministic/operational GFS. In terms of surface features, this allows the ECMWF to take the cold front further south than the GFS. The GFS's stalling of the front further north results in additional precip in our area on Thursday, compared to a dry ECMWF.
The GFS ensemble mean points toward more eastern CONUS troughing than in the operational/deterministic run, lending some support toward the ECMWF idea. That being the case, will go with POPs a little below the values in the model blend on Thursday, with nothing higher than slight chance.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
Based on current trends, the TAF sites will continue to experience BKN low level cover through around 0Z this evening, before the clouds begin to scatter out a bit. VFR should be the rule at JKL, LOZ, and SME, but SJS and SYM will continue to see MVFR CIGs of around 2K this afternoon, before the clouds scatter and lift a bit this evening. Winds should be generally light and variable through out the period, but especially tonight. Clouds will be on the increase late tonight, as an area of low pressure moves in from the west, leading to periods of BKN clouds. A few showers and storms could begin moving into the I-64 corridor in our northwestern counties late this evening. The rain will continue to advance slowly eastward overnight into early Friday, and could begin to affect JKL, LOZ ,SME, and SYM toward the end of the forecast period. MVFR fog will be possible again tonight as moisture advects in ahead of the incoming storm system. LOZ and SME might even see brief periods of IFR fog between 10 and 12Z on Friday.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- After a lull in shower and thunderstorm chances for most places tonight, higher chances return to close out the week and carry over into Saturday and Saturday evening, before tapering off Saturday night into Sunday.
- High pressure brings dry weather back to the area Sunday night through Tuesday. Couple areas of low pressure will bring rain back to the area Tuesday night through Thursday.
- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend. A further warm up is then expected into the first part of next week.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
The models exhibited some differences today regarding sensible weather across eastern Kentucky the next few days. The system that will influence our weather Friday into Saturday looks to be a developing storm system that will move out of the southern Plains Friday and Friday night, and then across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. A few rain showers were popping here and there is a few of our eastern counties this afternoon, and it appears this activity will continue until the sun begins to set this evening. After that, we should see dry weather through the night. With none of the models showing any convection continuing after dark in our area, decided to keep things dry after 23Z. The NAMNEST, NAM12, and HRRR models were the most robust with shower and storm activity around eastern Kentucky tonight through Saturday. The upper pattern currently features a warm front now situated north of the Ohio River, which was previously seen as a trigger for convection in our northwest counties this evening, but with this boundary now being analyzed well out of our area, it does not appear the front will play a factor in convective activity in our area this evening.
The latest model consensus seems to be pointing toward having the first showers and storms moving into our northwest very late tonight to around dawn on Friday, with activity gradually spreading eastward and increasing in coverage through out the day on Friday. A new wrinkle in the latest model data is the production of a large and robust MCS far to our south that will be moving across the southern portions of the states along the Gulf of Mexico. The models, to varying degrees, have this southern MCS cutting off the northward moisture off of the Gulf, thereby decreasing the coverage of showers and storms across KY and TN Friday and Friday night. The latest SREF runs took this scenario to the extreme, and had very little precip affecting eastern Kentucky on Friday, with scattered activity occurring early Friday morning, but quickly dissipating by around 16Z, and having not much else occurring until later in the day in our northern counties and keeping Saturday almost entirely dry. That being said, the solutions of the NAMNEST and HRRR runs seemed more reasonable, as a moist air mass is already in place, and we should see enough moisture return to support scattered to at times numerous showers and storms around our area heading into the weekend.
Temperatures still look to be quite warm on Friday, perhaps a few degrees above normal, with mild lows on tap tonight and Friday night. Winds should see be fairly light heading into the weekend as well. No major weather concerns at this time, but there is a small chance of excessive rainfall occurring with some of the storms on Friday, or where multiple storms move over the same areas repeatedly.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
Models are indicating an upper level split flow expected across the CONUS at the start of the period, with the southern portion of the flow having troughiness from the ArkLaTex region northeastward over the Ohio Valley. A weak upper low is expected to be embedded in this trough, but there is poor model agreement on its position. Ample moisture should be present beneath and ahead of the upper trough, allowing for precip. The regime will shift east with time, but the aforementioned model discrepancies result in uncertainty down the line as to how quickly it departs. A model blend being used for the forecast continues to lack details, but has an overall decreasing POP trend during the weekend, overlaid with diurnal tendencies. Dry weather is forecast by late Sunday evening. Ridging at all levels approaching and passing over from late Sunday night through Tuesday will result in dry weather persisting during that time. Slightly drier low level air should also arrive.
Beyond this, a shortwave trough aloft originating in the northern part of the flow is expected to approach and pass over Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the bulk of the wave to our north. This supports a surface cold front which both the GFS and ECMWF pass through our area on Wednesday afternoon or evening. The best upper level support is weakening and shifting to our north as the system goes by. It would also appear that the best moisture return ahead of the front will be to our west and probably not make it here before cold fropa.
These considerations as well as models only generating light precip here, will limit the POP to chance category.
By Thursday, the deterministic/operational ECMWF has deepened an upper level trough over Ontario and the eastern CONUS much more so than the deterministic/operational GFS. In terms of surface features, this allows the ECMWF to take the cold front further south than the GFS. The GFS's stalling of the front further north results in additional precip in our area on Thursday, compared to a dry ECMWF.
The GFS ensemble mean points toward more eastern CONUS troughing than in the operational/deterministic run, lending some support toward the ECMWF idea. That being the case, will go with POPs a little below the values in the model blend on Thursday, with nothing higher than slight chance.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2024
Based on current trends, the TAF sites will continue to experience BKN low level cover through around 0Z this evening, before the clouds begin to scatter out a bit. VFR should be the rule at JKL, LOZ, and SME, but SJS and SYM will continue to see MVFR CIGs of around 2K this afternoon, before the clouds scatter and lift a bit this evening. Winds should be generally light and variable through out the period, but especially tonight. Clouds will be on the increase late tonight, as an area of low pressure moves in from the west, leading to periods of BKN clouds. A few showers and storms could begin moving into the I-64 corridor in our northwestern counties late this evening. The rain will continue to advance slowly eastward overnight into early Friday, and could begin to affect JKL, LOZ ,SME, and SYM toward the end of the forecast period. MVFR fog will be possible again tonight as moisture advects in ahead of the incoming storm system. LOZ and SME might even see brief periods of IFR fog between 10 and 12Z on Friday.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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