Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:07 AM   Moonset 9:21 AM

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FXUS63 KSGF 291040 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 540 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread flooding is ongoing in a majority of the forecast area with significant flooding continuing over parts of west central Missouri and southeast Kansas from earlier heavy rain.

- Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM for extreme southwest Missouri.
Some light drizzle may also occur within this area and along the Ozark Plateau (15-30% chance).

- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances this week (20-40% chances). Highest chance for showers and thunderstorms occurs Thursday (70-90% chance).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Widespread flooding is ongoing in a majority of our area:

A decaying thunderstorm complex associated with a mid/upper- level shortwave is currently exiting our CWA bringing a much needed dry weather break. Some lingering stratiform rain will continue in the eastern Ozarks through the morning, but much of the heavy rain is over. Unfortunately, effects from the heavy rain will continue today with at least 90% of our forecast area under some sort of flood headline for at least minor flooding.
In the last 72 hours, MRMS QPE estimates put almost our entire area at over 2 inches of rain with several corridors of at least 4 inches. Pay attention to the roadways when traveling, especially near low-water crossings and rivers. Turn around, don't drown!

Significant flooding continues over parts of W MO/SE KS:

The hardest hit area was in west MO and SE KS, including areas like Nevada, Pittsburg, KS, and Fort Scott, KS. These areas received 6-10 inches of rain in the last 72 hours on top of 4-5 inches from days prior. AHPS precipitation analysis puts Fort Scott in the 10-15 inch range over the last 7 days.
Needless to say, this has led to some dangerous and significant flooding in that area. The Little Osage and Marmaton Rivers have notably reached Major Flood stage. While no rain is expected in the short-term, it will take a bit of time for these rivers and areal flooding to recede. Once again, pay attention to alerts and stay away from any suspected flood waters.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM for extreme southwest Missouri:

With the upper-level shortwave trough and surface low lifting to the NE, an associated cold front will sag through the area this morning. Ahead and just behind the front, dewpoint depressions have dropped to 0 and below (lows and dewpoints are in the mid-50s). This, paired with weak surface winds and generally clearing skies will promote fog formation, especially in extreme SW MO along the NW edge of the Ozark Plateau where NW'ly upslope surface flow will enhance saturation/condensation.
Locations including Joplin and Pittsburg have already seen a narrow band of fog associated with the front briefly drop visibilities to a half mile.

Additionally, with the low-level relative humidities generally >80%, no cloud ice present, a band of upward omegas moving in along the front, and NW'ly upslope flow along the plateau, light drizzle will also be possible within and around the regions of fog. Both the fog and drizzle will dissipate by 9 AM at the latest when clear skies promote increased surface heating and mixing after sunrise, leading to high temperatures in the mid-70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Additional storm chances return this week:

After the upper-level wave exits, the longwave pattern that sets up will exhibit a broad trough axis over the northern Rockies with the jet stream max staying within the northern Plains. This will keep surface low tracks generally well to the NW of our area. Indeed, a surface low will move across the northern Plains beneath the longwave, allowing for S'ly surface flow across our area. This will lift the cold front back to the north out of SW MO and advect in high temperatures in the lower 80s for Tuesday/Wednesday with lows in the lower 60s for those nights.

Within the aforementioned longwave pattern, several shortwaves are expected to revolve around the axis. Though the waves should stay to our NW, each one will force rounds of convection that could clip our area, generally along and NW of I-44. This brings 20-40% PoPs for Tuesday/Wednesday evening/night NW of I-44. With GEFS probs bringing 80-100% chances for CAPE >1000 J/kg along an axis generally west of Hwy 65, severe weather may be possible with these rounds of convection. However, with the mid-level waves displaced well to our NW, the threat appears to be more focused within the OK/KS/NE area. The SPC tends to agree with only a Marginal (1/5; 5%) risk just clipping our western counties Tuesday/Wednesday. This means we would most likely see scattered remnant convection Tuesday/Wednesday evening/night that could at times be marginally severe for our western counties.

Our best chance for showers/thunderstorms looks to be Thursday as a deeper shortwave rounds the broad longwave axis. This will allow for greater shear and surface frontal forcing to overspread our area. This will bring 70-90% chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening/night. GEFS probabilities give a 40-60% chance for CAPE values >1000 J/kg, and with the wave passing closer to our area, shear would be greater, so severe weather could be possible. However, uncertainty in exact details is still too high to give a probability on severe weather. CSU machine learning guidance does put much of our CWA in a 15%, though the centroid is out to the west in KS. Later updates will further evaluate this system for severe weather potential.

After the shortwave clears the area, cooler weather will filter in behind with highs going from near 80F Thursday to the mid-70s for the weekend. Lows will hover in the 50s for the same period.
Model spread increases after Thursday, but more chances for some showers/thunderstorms exist into the weekend. PoPs are currently at 15-30% highlighting the timing and ensemble uncertainties.
GEFS has a shortwave ejecting out of the SW, bringing widespread rain chances. EPS and Canadian ensembles do not show this shortwave, generally keeping our area dry. We will see how models come to agreement in the future, but with the late-spring warm sector settling in across the central/southern CONUS, showers and thunderstorms appear more possible from a day-to-day basis, especially with ensembles hinting at a longwave trough setting up over the western US in the long range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Fog is currently impacting JLN and lowered ceilings and sometimes decreased visibilities are impacting SGF and BBG.
These conditions will continue until 14-15Z at the latest in which VFR conditions will prevail. Calm winds today will be variable as a cold front passes through the TAF sites, then lifts north back through them again after 00Z. These winds should settle in a SE'ly direction by 06Z, but remain calm.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ088-093- 094-101>103.

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