Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:22PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:17 AM EDT (05:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 948 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday evening...
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 5 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 948 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves farther off the coast tonight. Low pressure tracks across north carolina Monday while a strong cold front moves south across the local area by Monday afternoon. The low and cold front push off the mid atlantic coast Monday night. Cool high pressure builds in from the north Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake, VA
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location: 36.76, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250512
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
112 am edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure passes through virginia tonight, with a
stronger area of low pressure moving along an advancing cold
front on Monday. The front pushes south of the area Monday
night, with high pressure over the midwest building into the mid
atlantic and northeast states into Wednesday.

Near term until 8 am this morning
As of 915 pm edt Sunday...

latest analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure moving across
northern va this evening with a fast moving wsw flow in place
aloft. Skies have become partly mostly cloudy this (high
clouds), but conditions remain dry with dew pts still mostly in
the 30s and temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s (except upper
40s eastern shore). Looking at satellite trends and the high res
model data suggests a mostly cloudy night, though there may be
some decrease in cloud cover after 06-09z early Mon as this
initial sfc low moves off to the east. Much milder than last
night with lows primarily ranging from the upper 40s to the
lower 50s (models show winds diminishing a bit towards daybreak
to allow temperatures to fall to these levels).

Short term 8 am this morning through Wednesday
As of 915 pm edt Sunday...

models are in fairly good agreement with the main area of sfc
low pressure progged to be somewhere across the lower oh valley
as of 12z mon. However, the sfc low looks to become rather
broad elongated by late morning into the aftn as it pushes into
southern va. With the front progged to become nearly parallel to
the flow aloft, the boundary will have a difficult time pushing
much to the south through the day. This makes for a challenging
wind, temperature and precipitation forecast and the potential
for a significant gradient across the CWA by aftn. Have raised
highs a few degrees over NE nc and far southern va near the nc
border (into the lower 70s), while portions of the eastern shore
will likely struggle to get out of the 50s (with falling
temperatures during the late aftn).

As for precipitation, models differ a bit on how much occurs
ahead of the sfc low, but the forcing does not look very
impressive out ahead of the boundary and sfc dew pts are only
progged to be in the 40s to lower 50s so this has sort of an
ana-frontal look to it (precip occurring mostly behind the
frontal passage). Expect little to no precipitation in the
morning and have lowered pops to only a chance over most of se
va NE nc through 21z (5pm). Farther inland and to the north
closer to the actual sfc low have maintained likely to
categorical pops moving in between 18-21z.

At some point, the pcpn type will switch from a showery one to
more of a stratiformed rain behind the fropa. NAM is quicker
than the GFS with the wind shift. Some instability noted mainly
south of va st rt 460 late aftn for a minimal thunder threat as
the low and front push into the warmer air across the se.

Highs for the day may occur before 18z across the north. Will
indicate a warm day ahead of the front with highs upr 50s-lwr
60s north with steady or falling temps after 18z, with lower 70s
across interior southern va and interior NE nc.

The entire system is slow to push off the coast Mon night. At this
point the entire fa has nne winds behind the front so pcpn will be
stratiformed. Highest pops in the eve, tapering off then ending
across the north after midnight, but with chc pops persisting
into early Tue morning across the se. Lows low- mid 30s north,
upr 30s-mid 40s south.

High pressure builds in from the north Tue thru Wed slowly pushing
the coastal low farther out to sea. Look for pt to mstly sunny skies
and cool once again. Highs Tue upr 40s-lwr 50s west of the ches bay,
mid-upr 40s near the water. Cold Tue night with lows upr 20s-
lwr 30s except mid 30 sern beaches. Highs Wed 50-55 west of the
ches bay, 45- 50 near the water.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

high pressure settles over the area then shifts offshore late in the
week. This results in a dry period along with a slow warming trend.

Lows Wed night in the 30s. Highs thurs mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows
thurs night upr 30s-mid 40s. Highs Fri lwr 60s-lwr 70s.

Continued dry and mild Sat as a cold front and assctd moisture
apprch but remain west of the mts. Highs mid 60s-mid 70s. Chc
shwrs Sun as the front crosses the area. Highs mid 60s-lwr 70s.

Aviation 05z Monday through Friday
As of 110 am edt Monday...

high clouds have begun to spread over the area as a low pressure
located over mo moves closer. CIGS will slowly lower from north
to south but will remainVFR tonight into the morning hours.

Cigs will begin to lower after 12z to 10-15k ft as a low
develops east of the mountains in the va piedmont. A frontal
boundary will form from north of kric to south of ksby. North of
the front will remain ovc throughout the day, while south of
the front will be bkn. The cold front will move south in the
late afternoon and winds will switch from the SW to N NE and
remain around 10 kt. Rain chances will increase after 20z and
cigs will become ovc 5-10 k ft. Ifr CIGS will overspread the
region after 26.00z.

Outlook:
the low pressure will move south of the va nc border Monday
night bringing widespread rain to the area along with possible
ifr cigs.VFR conditions will return Tuesday morning. A strong
ne flow will set up along the SE va NE nc coast Monday and
Tuesday with nne winds of 25 kt with gust up to 40 kt at korf
and 20 kt with gust up to 35 kt at kecg.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

high pressure is centered along the nc obx this afternoon, creating
local winds ssw 10-15 kt. Waves seas 1-2 ft. High pressure moves
offshore tonight with SW winds 10-15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft.

Models remain in good agreement that a cold front will drop south
across the waters starting late Monday morning through early
evening, with winds quickly turning to the nne post-frontal. Strong
north and northeast flow will follow the frontal passage with scas
likely Monday night and Tuesday for the northern ches bay, rivers
and coastal waters north of parramore island. Elsewhere, confidence
continues to increase that gales will occur late Monday night
through Tuesday. Sfc low looks to slow linger offshore Tuesday night
and early Wednesday, thus likely lingering SCA into Wednesday, at
least over over the lower bay, currituck sound and southern coastal
waters. Over the ocean, seas build rapidly Monday night into Tuesday
given persistent strong NE winds, reaching 5-8 feet N and 6-10 feet
s on Tuesday. A high surf advisory will likely be needed for at
least va beach south to outer banks currituck. Even after winds
diminish late Wednesday, an extended period of elevated seas appear
likely over the coastal waters for much of the week ahead, given
prolonged onshore flow through midweek.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 7 pm edt
Tuesday for anz630-631-635>637.

Gale watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
anz632-634-654.

Gale watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
anz633.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
Tuesday for anz638.

Gale watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
anz656-658.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 7 am edt
Wednesday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Lkb mpr
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Rhr cp
marine... Jdm mpr mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 1 mi36 min 58°F 53°F1020.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi30 min 58°F 1020.1 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 13 mi36 min 51°F1020 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 15 mi36 min 59°F 1018.8 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 16 mi36 min 57°F 1020.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 19 mi30 min 59°F 1018.5 hPa
44064 20 mi28 min SW 14 G 18 55°F 1020.1 hPa
44087 20 mi48 min 49°F1 ft
CHBV2 22 mi36 min 57°F 1018.8 hPa
44072 30 mi28 min 55°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 32 mi48 min 48°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 32 mi36 min 50°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 34 mi30 min 57°F 1020 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 34 mi30 min 59°F 49°F1019.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 49 mi48 min 48°F1 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 49 mi30 min 57°F 47°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA7 mi23 minS 67.00 miFair54°F36°F51%1020.7 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA11 mi27 minSSW 1310.00 miFair58°F37°F48%1019.6 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA12 mi79 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast59°F34°F39%1020.6 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA15 mi22 minSSW 1210.00 miFair57°F36°F45%1020.3 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA17 mi43 minSSW 1010.00 miFair58°F37°F46%1021 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA23 mi82 minSSW 1210.00 miLight Drizzle59°F36°F42%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from CPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE7S8S7SW6
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1 day agoW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Mon -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:23 PM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:59 PM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.70.2-0.4-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.8-0.10.40.70.70.40.1-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.600.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.