Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:46PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 4:21 AM EDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:21AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 410 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am edt this morning...
Through 7 am..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Today..SW winds 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt late in the morning, then becoming N early in the afternoon... Becoming ne late. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the late evening and early morning, then becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft late. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 4 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 410 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest this morning, then cross the waters late this afternoon through tonight. High pressure will gradually build down into the region from the northwest Thursday afternoon into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake, VA
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location: 36.76, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230756
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
356 am edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast
through tonight as a cold front begins to approach from the
west. The front crosses the area late Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night, with strong high pressure building
north of the area from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No major changes necessary to the previous forecast. Still
expecting a dry night aside from a stray shower late over
northern areas.

Previous discussion...

warm humid tonight with little chance for any rain under a sw
wind of 10 mph. Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Clouds
increase across the north ahead of the approaching cold front
and lead shortwave. Have introduced a slight chance pop for the
maryland eastern shore late tonight, but best chances for
measurable precipitation remain north and west of the local
area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
Models in good agreement with dropping the cold front into the
local area Wednesday morning, then pushing the front across the
area through Wednesday afternoon. Shearing vort lobe progged to
ride along the front as winds increase aloft. The added forcing
along the boundary along a narrow ribbon of high precipitable
waters will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Downslope flow from 1-3km
will limit the coverage over the piedmont, but hi-res and course
resolution guidance indicates that the activity should become
more organized central virginia eastward as it interacts a
moderately unstable air mass (mixed-layer CAPE values 500-1500
j kg) and marginal shear (25-30 knots). Dry mid levels and an
inverted v sounding indicate the main threat will be damaging
winds and frequent lightning. SPC maintains a marginal risk for
severe weather across the southeast half of the local area.

Heavy rainfall is also possible as the cold front slows as it
reaches southeast virginia and northeast north carolina
Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values progged around 2
to 2.25 inches. Westerly flow in the mid levels indicates that
the motion should prevent widespread heavy rainfall, but some
areas could see periods of heavy rainfall. No headlines planned
at this time. Flow becomes north to northeast behind the front,
as dry air spreads into the area from the northwest. The front
and upper wave push offshore Wednesday evening. Guidance
indicates a wave of low pressure develops along the front over
the carolinas, keeping rain chances in northeast north carolina
and far southeast virginia through Wednesday night. Highs
Wednesday range from the mid 80's northwest to around 90
southeast. Lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 60's inland to
the low 70's near the coast.

High pressure builds in from the northwest Thursday as the front
stalls along the southeast coast. Will keep low chance pops
across northeast north carolina Thursday nearest the front and
deepest moisture. Otherwise, dry, cooler and less humid
conditions expected. Highs Thursday forecast in the low to mid
80's under a partly cloudy sky.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Cooler and drier for the late week period courtesy of building
longwave upper level trough over the eastern united states.

Meanwhile, broad 1024+ mb surface high pressure builds south over
the interior northeast from great lakes Thursday and Friday,
eventually setting up over new england and ridging down the east
coast over the weekend into early next week. Forecast remains mostly
dry, although a few showers possible along the coast in persistent
onshore flow.

Medium range guidance in relatively good agreement with developing a
tropical system along and offshore of the southeast coast along the
old frontal boundary early next week. Kept weekend dry, with low
rain chances along the SE coast by Monday. Looking ahead, rain
chances look to improve into the middle of next week, with moisture
from the remnants of harvey looming to the sw. For temperatures,
high temperatures fri-mon will be at or just slightly below normal
through the period, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Early
morning lows in the 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Early this morning, a cold front was moving into NRN nw
portions of the cwa. That front will slowly push SE acrs the
region and off the coast today into Thu morning. Flight
restrictions will be possible along and behind the front this
aftn into Thu morning fm showers and tstms. The front should
push SE of NE nc during thu, with lingering showers possible
over extrm SE va NE nc. Conditions are expected to improve
thu aftn thru fri, as the front shifts farther SE and high
pressure builds north of the region. Breezy NE winds expected
near the coast Thu and fri.

Marine
A cold front will approach the waters from the northwest and
cross the area late this aftn through tonight. SW flow still
avearges 15-20 kt over the bay and coastal waters, have the sca
headlines through 7 am for the entire bay and for the NRN coatl
waters. Waves avg 2 to 3 feet in the bay and seas acrs the N are
4-5 ft. Winds shift to the N NE 10 to 15 knots behind the front
by late this morning N and by aftn farther S (and with
convection this aftn winds will be locally much stronger but
this will be handled W mws smw's as needed).

Strong high pressure builds north of the region Thursday and
into the weekend. Given the warm waters and some cold advection
late tonight Thu morning, expect a marginal SCA event over at
least some of the bay and probably the lower james Thu morning.

Did not raise any SCA headlines as this will be mainly a 3rd
period event (and still fairly marginal). Otherwise expect
diminishing winds later Thu aftn through Fri as sfc high
pressure builds a little farther south and the pressure gradient
weakens. Waves in the lower bay may briefly build to 3-4 ft thu
morning, then will subside to 1-2 ft with coastal seas 3-4 ft.

Onshore (e-ne) flow for the weekend as high pressure builds nnw
of the local area and then shifts east to new england. Winds
remain elevated 10 to 15, occasional gusts to ~20 kt sat, and
then increase more significantly Sunday into next week as
stalled front to the south lifts back N with low pressure
developing along the boundary. Seas remain choppy sat, and then
will build to 5-7 ft or greater late Sun into next week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for
anz630>632-634-650-652.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Lkb sam tmg
long term... Mam
aviation... Tmg
marine... Lkb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 1 mi52 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 78°F 84°F1011.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi52 min SW 7 G 13 79°F 1010.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 13 mi52 min 84°F1011 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 15 mi52 min SW 14 G 16 79°F 1010.8 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 16 mi52 min SW 15 G 18 80°F 1010.9 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 17 mi52 min WSW 19 G 21 80°F 81°F1010.6 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 19 mi52 min SW 9.9 G 17 79°F
44064 20 mi42 min 80°F 1010.7 hPa
44072 30 mi42 min WSW 18 G 21 81°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 32 mi52 min 78°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 32 mi52 min SW 17 G 21 81°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 34 mi52 min SW 12 G 17 79°F 83°F1010.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 34 mi52 min WSW 18 G 21 80°F 1010.6 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 41 mi42 min SW 14 G 18
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 49 mi52 min SW 14 G 22 80°F 68°F1011.8 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 49 mi52 min 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA7 mi47 minSSW 57.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1011.5 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA11 mi31 minSSW 910.00 miFair78°F75°F90%1011 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA12 mi83 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F82%1011.7 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA15 mi26 minSW 910.00 miFair77°F73°F88%1011.1 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA17 mi47 minSW 810.00 miFair78°F74°F89%1011.8 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA23 mi84 minSW 1310.00 miFair80°F74°F86%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from CPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S3CalmCalmSW4SW5S6S8SW4SW7S6S7S7S4S6S5S6S7S7S7S5S6S5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE6E4S4E6SE6SE6S3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmNE5E3E6E7E9
G14
E6E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Deep Creek Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:11 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:23 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:45 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.9210.2-0.100.61.52.53.23.63.63.12.31.30.5000.51.32.233.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:24 AM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:33 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0-0.6-1.2-1.5-1.5-1-0.30.40.91.10.90.50-0.6-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.50.30.91.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.