Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 11:58PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 1259 Pm Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1259 Pm Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure north of the area today, will slowly move east to a position off the new england coast Friday. Low pressure moves northeast along the mid atlantic coast Friday night and Saturday, bringing increasing chances for rain. An unsettled pattern is expected through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake, VA
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location: 36.76, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191551
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1151 am edt Thu jul 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure north of the area today, will slowly move east to
a position off the new england coast Friday. Low pressure moves
northeast along the mid atlantic coast Friday night and Saturday,
bringing increasing chances for rain. An unsettled pattern is
expected through the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1130 am edt Thursday...

latest analysis indicates ~1020mb sfc high pressure centered
over eastern pa ny, ridging south into the local area. Noting
a shortwave aloft (albeit weak) pushing ese and off the va coast
late this morning. With the light onshore and somewhat higher
dew pts over SE va (mid-upper 60s), seeing a rather significant
cumulus field across SE va and NE nc about 10 miles inland from
the coast. While its actually mostly cloudy there as of 1130 am,
expect this to evolve into a partly sunny aftn with sct-bkn
cloud cover overall. Skies will avg mostly sunny over the
slightly cooler water and near the immediate coast and partly
sunny elsewhere. Highs mainly in the upper 80s inland and in the
lower to mid 80s at the immediate coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
As of 300 am edt Thursday...

the high begins to shift east tonight resulting in another mstly clr
and comfy night. Light onshore flow along with increasing moisture
to the south allows for high clouds across SRN zones late. Lows in
the 60s to near 70 se.

The high slides farther off the new england coast as low pressure
develops along the SE us coast fri. Models are somewhat slower in
bringing any deep moisture north into the local area until late
aftn, so cut back pops a bit limiting any shower activity to ne
nc zones. Data suggests any thunder would be limited ivof the
albemarle sound on southward. Otw, the day starts off mstly
sunny bcmg pt sunny to mstly cldy se. Highs mid 80s, 80-85
beaches.

Low confidence forecast Fri night and Sat as 00z models offer up
different tracks and deeper moisture fields wrt a deepening non-
tropical coastal low. GFS faster with a track just inland, NAM &
ecmwf slower with a track offshore basically paralleling the coast.

The one thing that is noticeable is that there appears to be a
sharp moisture gradient to where mdt-locally hvy rainfall
occurs versus just regular summer time showers. This line
setting up east of the i95 corridor, generally ivof the ches bay
on east where pw's surge to AOA 2 inches. Despite weak
instability, kept low chc thunder along the coast due to how
quick this system deepens.

Upshot for this forecast package was not to make to may adjustments
to current grids given the uncertainty. Did cut back pops fri
night a bit across the piedmont ramping up to likely along the
coast. Lows Fri night mid 60s-lwr 70s. Likely pops along the
coast Sat with chc pops west of the ches bay. GFS faster in
bringing additional moisture across the mts late in response to
the moisture from the upr level low apprchg from the west. Highs
sat low-mid 80s.

Kept chc pops Sat night due to the abundant moisture progged
across the region. Moisture from the departing low keeps higher
pops along the coast Sat eve while showers crossing mts mts has
higher pops across the west after midnite. Lows upr 60s-mid 70s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 345 pm edt Wednesday...

this period will be characterized by daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms throughout the mid-atlantic. The latest 18 12z
suite of guidance is still forecasting an upper-level low to meander
just west of the area from Sunday through Tuesday. This will set the
stage for diurnally driven showers t-storms (most numerous during
the afternoon hours). While the upper low is expected to weaken by
midweek, moisture will remain in place with S SW flow at the surface
and aloft. Therefore, am expecting t-storm chances to continue
through at least Wednesday. The showers t-storms will likely be
scattered in nature, and it hard to pin down the specifics this far
ahead of time, so kept pops between 30-50% throughout the CWA from
Sunday through Wednesday. While pw values will likely not approach
record territory, there is the potential for some areas to receive
several inches of rain next week.

Not much in the way of temperature changes from Sunday through
Wednesday. Expect highs generally in the mid 80s to around 90
degrees, with overnight lows between 70-75.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
As of 630 am edt Thursday...

vfr conditions through the forecast period as high pressure
dominates. Only sct mid-high level clouds expected. Light ene
become ese at less than 10 kts.

Outlook:
vfr conditions expected Fri (except LCL MVFR for sct convection
fri aftn across southern va NE nc). A more unsettled pattern
begins sat, with an increase in convection coverage over the
weekend into early next week.

Marine
As of 345 am edt Thursday...

early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over NRN pa.

The high will slide to along the new england NRN mid atlc coast
by tonight, then moves farther off the new england coast during
fri. Nne winds 5-10 kt this morning, will become E by this
evening, ese tonight, then become ese 10-15 kt most of the
waters during fri. A surface low is expected to develop and
lift nne along the SE and mid atlc coast late Fri into Sat aftn
bringing ese winds 10-20 kt. Waves will be 1-3 ft, with seas 3-4
ft. Winds will become ssw 5-15 kt late Sat night, then expect
mainly S winds 10-20 kt for Sun aftn thru Mon night.

Equipment
Kdox radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. Return to
service is unknown at this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Mpr
long term... Eri
aviation... Mpr
marine... Tmg
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 1 mi42 min SSE 7 G 8 82°F 83°F1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi42 min ENE 12 G 14 81°F 1018.1 hPa (+0.0)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 13 mi42 min 82°F1018.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 15 mi42 min E 13 G 16 78°F 1017.8 hPa (+0.3)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 16 mi42 min E 6 G 13 80°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.3)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 19 mi42 min E 11 G 12 78°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.5)
44064 20 mi42 min ESE 12 G 14 78°F 2 ft1018.5 hPa (+0.5)
CHBV2 22 mi42 min E 8.9 G 12 79°F 1018.1 hPa (+0.7)
44072 30 mi42 min ESE 9.7 G 12 80°F 81°F1 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 32 mi42 min 79°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 32 mi42 min E 8 G 11 82°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 34 mi42 min E 11 G 13 81°F 81°F1018.3 hPa (+0.4)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 34 mi42 min ESE 11 G 12 80°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.4)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 49 mi42 min 78°F2 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 49 mi42 min ENE 9.9 G 12 77°F 79°F1018.4 hPa (+0.6)
FRFN7 49 mi102 min 2 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA7 mi47 minENE 97.00 miOvercast82°F64°F54%1018.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA11 mi51 minNE 910.00 miFair86°F70°F59%1018.2 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA12 mi1.7 hrsENE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F69°F63%1018.8 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA15 mi46 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F64°F56%1018.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA17 mi67 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast83°F63°F52%1018.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA23 mi1.8 hrsESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F69°F62%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from CPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N5NW6N4N4N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E5E3E5
1 day agoS8
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SW8SW8SW6S6S6S5S6W10
G16
SW3SW4CalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmNW3NW3N5N6N7N5NW6
2 days agoS6S8S9S9
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S8S5S4S5S5S4CalmCalmCalmS3S4S3S4SW3SW6SW4S6SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Deep Creek Entrance
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Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.22.83.132.61.91.10.400.10.51.222.73.23.33.12.51.81.10.50.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 06:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.80.90.70.40-0.5-1-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.600.60.80.80.70.40-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.