Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:46 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 114 Pm Pdt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - W wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 3 ft at 17 seconds. Tonight - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 11 seconds and sw 3 ft at 17 seconds. Mon - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 3 ft at 16 seconds. Mon night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds, W 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 3 ft at 16 seconds. Tue - N wind around 5 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds, W 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Wed - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wed night - NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Thu - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Thu night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 114 Pm Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
buoy observations over the outer waters are beginning to show wind gusts reaching gale force this afternoon. Strong northerly winds and gale force gusts will be present over much of the waters today and Monday, with only slight reductions in wind speed during the overnight hours. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.

FXUS66 KMTR 200102 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 602 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Clouds continue to rapidly erode as of early this afternoon and will continue to do so into the evening. Low clouds are more than likely to return to the Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula overnight but will clear by early-to-mid morning. Also, cannot rule out patchy drizzle in and around the Monterey Bay early Monday morning.

Afternoon temperatures for Monday will be similar to today, yet coastal areas will warm by a few degrees thanks to northerly flow across the region. Thus, expecting highs to range from the lower 60's to near 70 degrees at the coast with mid 70's to lower 80's across the interior.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water.

By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther south into California with an associated surface low passing through the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

A weak and dry surface low pressure center over the northern Central Valley is juxtaposed to an increasing pressure gradient over the coastal and offshore waters. The ACV-SFO pressure gradient is 6.7 mb and the SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 3.2 mb.
It's VFR, however regionally it's a complex surface pressure pattern (winds) coupled to an evolving dynamic pattern involving upper level troughing. The marine layer depth to the base of the low level temperature inversion varies along the coast and will vary greatly tonight and Monday morning with offshore winds (downsloping, warming) over the North Bay to SF Peninsula while locally onshore winds (upsloping, cooling - sufficient cooling to erode the marine layer temperature inversion) over the South Bay to the north Central Coast.

In the near term the HRRR output appears to have a better handle (vs the NAM) on near surface humidity, it helps determine cigs vs no cigs forecast. Monitoring the aforementioned surface low in the Central Valley and its southward motion tonight and Monday, the low will influence surface winds. For example surface winds at KSJC are likely to shift over to southeasterly 5 knots increasing to 8 to 10 knots 09z-17z Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...Peak wind gust to 37 knots 2355z prompted an airport weather warning for gusty west winds until 04z (9 pm PDT)
this evening, more recent 5 min obs show the wind has subsided a little bit. Strong NW winds over the northern coastal waters are sweeping evaporated sea salt to the air resulting in hazy/haze conditions, limiting surface visibilities to 5 miles /MVFR/ along the coast. West wind at KSFO is periodically transporting haze from the coast to the terminal. Otherwise VFR/MVFR tonight and Monday, west wind easing overnight to less than 10 knots. West wind increasing Monday afternoon and evening to 18 gusts 25 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore winds 10 to 20 knots early, easing overnight to 5 to 10 knots. It's a complex forecast regarding cigs tonight and Monday as described above this area will begin losing its marine layer temperature inversion allowing for good vertical mixing with drier air aloft, however upsloping, cooling may still produce a sct-bkn cloud cover /MVFR/ best chances late tonight and Monday morning. Cyclonic circulation/eddy circulation over the Monterey Bay Monday morning may temporarily improve ceiling development around sunrise, unless downsloping, warming, drying across the Monterey Bay (from the Santa Cruz Mountains) is enough to offset cloud development. Otherwise VFR Monday.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 450 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Buoy observations over the outer waters are beginning to show wind gusts reaching gale force this afternoon. Strong northerly winds and gale force gusts will be present over much of the waters today and Monday, with only slight reductions in wind speed during the overnight hours. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM.

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Pacific Mariculture Dock
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Sun -- 03:17 AM PDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:47 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM PDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pacific Mariculture Dock, Elkhorn Slough, California, Tide feet

Point Pinos
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Sun -- 01:17 AM PDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:48 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:04 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM PDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:54 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:30 PM PDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:57 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:52 PM PDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:42 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Pinos, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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