Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkhorn, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:59PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 5:45 AM PDT (12:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:45PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 256 Am Pdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Today..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog this morning.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ500 256 Am Pdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... High pressure over the eastern pacific extends into oregon. Winds will remain light along the coast through the week with the strongest winds north and west of the district. Low pressure will develop off the pacific northwest coast bringing southerly winds on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkhorn, CA
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location: 36.82, -121.75     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 251148
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
448 am pdt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis Warm offshore flow will persist in the hills and for
inland valleys at least through midweek. The coast and coastal
valleys will still be under the influence of cooler onshore flow
with a marine layer in place. A cooling trend for all areas Friday
into the weekend as a mainly dry upper trough approaches the
region. Some indications for rain chances across northern california
by early next week.

Discussion As of 3:52 am pdt Tuesday... Will let red flag
warning ride even though event is marginal. Interior hills still
reporting rh under 30% with some wind gusts to 20 mph. Models
indicate the period of strongest winds in the hills will be from
now through about 16-18z this morning. The red flag warning
remains in effect until 5 pm for the north and east bay hills for
continued low humidity and dry offshore winds. Meanwhile the
marine layer has ramped up along the coast to around 1500 feet
with southerly winds noted at the buoys. The local sfo-sac
gradient is onshore at 1.5 mb with southwest winds out into the
delta. Thats usually not a sign of hot inland temps but believe
the northerly gradient will increase this morning and allow inland
valleys to warm into the 90s. The presence of the morning marine
layer will likely mean those locations within 5-10 miles may not
warm quite as much as previously forecast. Also noting that we are
seeing some fog reports this morning with the moist marine layer
being compressed by the dry offshore flow so will have some fog
impacts for the morning commute.

Forecast of above normal temps is still on target through
Wednesday and likely into Thursday with high pressure over the
region and light surface gradients as a thermal trough straddles
the coast. Will be watching an upper low over the east pac as it
eventually ejects towards CAPE mendocino. We should see onshore
flow return by late Thursday afternoon or for sure by Friday which
will lead to the inland cooling trend. Latest model solution looks
drier with any precip associated with the core of the upper low
and the trajectory taking it north of CAPE mendocino. Will hold
onto some slight chance pops for the north bay later Saturday
afternoon evening.

Forecast confidence diminishes by Sunday and Monday. The latest
euro does bring a soaking rain to much of norcal and the bay area
for Monday while the GFS and gem offer much drier scenarios. There
is big model differences in the handling of tropical moisture
coming up baja california. Given were still 6 days out believe its
prudent to not jump completely on board the euro solution. Will
get through this period of above normal temps and fire weather
concerns and then start to hone in on possible first rain chances
of the year as the calendar turns to october.

Aviation As of 4:50 am pdt Tuesday... While light offshore flow
is over the hills... The marine layer at the coast has deepened to
around 1500 feet and stratus is making headway into the sfo bay
area. A short period of ifr CIGS is expected for the sfo bay area
and the approach with clearing after 17z. Patchy fog in the north
bay valleys and around the mry bay area.

Vicinity of ksfo... Ifr CIGS possible through 16z.

Sfo bridge approach... Ifr CIGS spreading over much of the
approach. Clearing after 17z.

Monterey bay terminals... Stratus is quite extensive over the mry
bay area and down the salinas valley. Ifr with clearing not
expected until 18z.

Fire weather As of 3:52 am pdt Tuesday... As noted above will
hold onto red flag warning through 5 pm Tuesday for the north and
east bay hills for low humidity and dry offshore winds. Event is
marginal at this time. Still expect one last burst of ridge-top
winds this morning focused over napa and the east bay hills. Fuels
remain critically dry. Current 3 am readings show temps in the mid
70s with rh in the teens combined with northeast wind gusts to 15
mph.

Even after 5 pm today warm and dry conditions persist at least
through Thursday for the hills.

Marine As of 04:25 am pdt Tuesday... High pressure over the
eastern pacific extends into oregon. Winds will remain light along
the coast through the week with the strongest winds north and
west of the district. Low pressure will develop off the pacific
northwest coast bringing southerly winds on Saturday.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: rww
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
fire weather: rww
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 1 mi60 min E 1 54°F 1013 hPa52°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi30 min Calm 53°F 56°F1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 16 mi24 min 58°F2 ft
MEYC1 17 mi69 min 53°F 58°F1013 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 33 mi45 min 57°F5 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 34 mi55 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 55°F 58°F5 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.0)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 38 mi15 min 55°F5 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA9 mi52 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist52°F52°F100%1012.8 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA13 mi52 minESE 44.00 miFog/Mist53°F52°F96%1013.6 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA17 mi51 minE 35.00 miFog/Mist54°F52°F93%1014 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA19 mi50 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmS3SW5SW8SW8SW6SW8SW7W7W3CalmW3W3N3N3N3CalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S7S8S8S6S8S8SE7SE5E3NE4N3N3N3W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW7W7SW8SW6SW8SW7W6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.