Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 4:19 PM

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ANZ656 Coastal Waters From Cape Charles Light To Virginia- North Carolina Border Out To 20 Nm- 1258 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A chance of showers. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1258 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters later today, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 051928 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 328 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 1010 AM EDT Sunday...

Late this morning, a warm front was starting to lift back north across the region. This is evident not only from the winds having turned to the SE, but also the temperature gradient across the area. Latest obs showed lower 70s in the SE with dewpoints also in the 60s, and mid to upper 50s in the NW for both temps and dewpoints. As the front continues northward this aftn, temps will rise into the mid to possibly upper 70s SSE, and should eventually rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s N.

Shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft as well as the front advancing N, will lead to additional rounds of showers and tstms this aftn into this evening. Expect the highest coverage to gradually expand ewrd across the region. Coverage is then expected to decrease late this evening and into the overnight, as the main axis of pcpn progresses E. Chance PoPs then continue E of I-95 through the night. Instability of 600-700 J/KG (mean HRRR SCAPE) means there will be a decent chance for thunder.
Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with higher amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Remaining mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain to start the week

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions

Mon and Tues mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through the week. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in the (fairly weak) SW flow aloft plus a lee trough will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the afternoon through late evening. Temps climb into the low 80s on Monday with dewpoints as high as the upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Highest coverage in precip on Mon looks to be across the south (roughly S of US-460) during the afternoon hours as of latest guidance. Tuesday is less certain, as models are still showing some disagreement regarding coverage and timing of precip. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the south of low 80s in the north. Lows both nights will be in the mid- upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Wednesday through Friday.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week.
A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

A warm front will push N of the area by this evening. However, the warm front combined with shortwave energy/moisture/lift, will produce sctd showers and tstms into tonight. So, expect VFR to MVFR conditions with the pcpn into tonight. Then, expect MVFR or IFR CIGs to return to the TAF sites later tonight into Mon morning, due to lingering low level moisture behind the exiting pcpn. Winds will be SE-S this aftn into Mon morning, then become SW by later Mon morning. through the period and gusty at the coast this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions for Mon aftn, along with the return chance of showers or tstms.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn, with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.

Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24 hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.

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Inside Channel, Rudee Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:47 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots

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