Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Benns Church, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:55PM Monday November 19, 2018 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 330 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Through 7 pm..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 330 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak area of low pressure moves northeast off the outer banks this evening. A cold front crosses the coast Tuesday. High pressure returns Wednesday, with another cold front crossing the region Wednesday night, as strong high pressure builds across the northeast Thursday into Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benns Church, VA
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location: 36.83, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 192039
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
339 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A dry cold front approaches the area tonight, and passes through
the area by Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds across the area
from the west on Tuesday night into Wednesday before another
strong cold front passes through the area late Wednesday.

Canadian high pressure then builds across the area for
thanksgiving into Friday before a complex area of low pressure
affects the region for the upcoming weekend.&&

Near term through tonight
As of 250 pm est Monday...

area of light rain over the far SE should move out by late this
afternoon as the responsible upper disturbance moves offshore.

Otherwise, tonight will be quiet as the frontal boundary near
the mason dixon line dives southward overnight. A weak signal in
the cams of perhaps a sprinkle or two with the frontal passage
late tonight into early Tuesday (especially across the far se
where there is a hint of a weak low developing). However, given
the drying aloft and the weak downslope flow, will keep a dry
forecast as the front moves through. May be some patchy fog
tonight across the SE where it rained today and have included
that in the forecast. Otherwise, lows will drop into the lower
40s NW to upper 40s se.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
As of 250 pm est Monday...

quiet conditions expected for any travelers across region tue-
thanksgiving day with broad high pressure building across the
area. Skies should clear out by Tuesday afternoon, with clear
skies continuing through Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday top out in
the middle 50s and then slightly cooler on Wednesday with highs
in the lower 50s.

Another strong cold front moves through Wed night with canadian
high pressure building across the middle atlantic on Thursday.

This cold front will be dry, however there will be an
appreciable change in temperatures on thanksgiving. In fact,
based on latest eps and GEFS guidance, have dropped temps
considerably on Thursday with daytime highs only in the mid-
upper 30s north and lower-mid 40s south. In fact, temps will
struggle to rise too much Thursday given the strong cold
advection and blustery north winds. These temperatures are some
20-25 degrees below normal for this time of year, however not
unprecedented for nov 23. See climate section for further
details.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 250 pm est Monday...

very cold Thursday night with the ridge axis over the area
leading to clear calm conditions. At this time, record lows are
not in jeopardy, however temps will still be very cold for this
time of year generally in the upper teens far NW to upper 20s
se. Friday will be sunny and a little warmer than Thursday, but
still highs only in the 40s. Next southern stream system moves
out of the deep south Friday night and impacts the area Sat aftn
into Saturday night as it moves over the middle atlantic. Very
good agreement in timing and area of precip between the GFS and
ecmwf. Expect rain to develop by Saturday afternoon and continue
through Saturday evening as the low passes across the area.

Will therefore go with likely pops across the entire region
during this time. Some differences in model solutions on Sunday
and Monday with the GFS being more progressive with the next
system yielding a chance for showers later Sunday into sun
night, while the gem and the ECMWF are more amplified with the
plains trough and associated frontal system leading to a dry
Sunday with chances for rain on Monday. For now, will go with
the gem ECMWF solution and keep the forecast dry on Sunday with
the better chances for rain next Monday.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be closer to normal with upper
50s lower 60s. Slightly cooler on Monday, but still mid 50s-
around 60.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
As of 1220 pm est Monday...

a weak disturbance aloft will continue to bring considerable
clouds to the area through tonight. MostlyVFR conditions,
however ecg remains MVFR with some light rain. As this
disturbance moves out, expect conditions at ecg to becomeVFR
this afternoon. MVFR conditions again expected tonight at
ecg orf sby. Some guidance suggests ifr at these spots
overnight, but the consensus is MVFR tonight. Clearing skies tue
morning withVFR conditions.

Outlook:VFR conditions returning late Tuesday afternoon
through at least thanksgiving day, as cool high pressure builds
across the region.

Marine
As of 330 pm est Monday...

generally diffuse surface pressure field this afternoon with weak
low pressure lifting northeast near the va nc border and another low
pressure area in southern ohio and northern kentucky. Current obs
across the marine zones shows light winds of 5-10 knots from the
south and southwest with waves around 1 foot and seas offshore
running 2-3 feet.

A cold front associated with the low pressure area near the ohio
river today will cross the area Tuesday with northwesterly
winds in its wake. Cold advection will be rather weak with this
feature but winds will increase with 15-20 knots across the
northern bay zones with 10-15 knots expected elsewhere.

Accordingly, have SCA headlines for the northern bay zones
tomorrow late afternoon and into the overnight hours. Waves
will run 2-4 feet in the bay (highest north) and seas will
generally top out in the 3-4 foot range.

High pressure briefly ridges in from the west on Wednesday before
another front traverses the area late Wednesday into Thursday.

Strong (1038-1040mb) high pressure across the great lakes will send
a nice surge of cold air across the area and another period of sca
conditions is likely for the marine zones. High pressure to our
north moves slowly eastward to end the work week and results in an
extended period of easterly onshore flow. The subtropical jet
remains active this weekend as an area of low pressure takes shape
over the northern gulf coast before moving northeast toward the
area.

Hydrology
As of 335 am est Sunday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for mattoax on the
appomattox, and sebrell on the nottoway. See flsakq for more
site- specific information

Climate
***record low maximum temps for nov 22***
ric... 36 (1929)
orf... 39 (2008)
sby... 36 (1989)
ecg... 41 (1972)
***record low temperatures for nov 23**
ric... 20 (2008)
orf... 23 (2008)
sby... 15 (2008)
ecg... 19 (1937)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm Tuesday to 3 am est Wednesday
for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Mrd
aviation... Ajb mrd
marine... Rhr
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 11 mi45 min S 5.1 G 7 54°F 1016.9 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 12 mi39 min S 7 G 11 53°F 1016.2 hPa (-0.7)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 14 mi45 min SW 4.1 G 7 54°F 56°F1016.2 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 14 mi39 min 55°F1016.5 hPa (-0.4)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi45 min S 9.9 G 11 53°F 1015.7 hPa
44087 25 mi39 min 55°F1 ft
44064 27 mi49 min SSW 9.7 G 12 53°F 1016.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 28 mi39 min S 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 55°F1015.7 hPa (-0.8)
CHBV2 28 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 53°F 1015.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi39 min S 8 G 11 52°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.5)
44072 30 mi49 min S 5.8 G 9.7 53°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 31 mi39 min S 12 G 12 54°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.7)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 38 mi39 min S 7 G 8.9 55°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi69 min Calm 52°F 1017 hPa49°F

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA11 mi64 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast54°F53°F99%1016.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA16 mi1.7 hrsS 47.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F48°F86%1016.9 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA17 mi44 minS 53.00 miFog/Mist52°F50°F97%1016.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA19 mi48 minS 89.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1016.3 hPa
Franklin / J B Rose, VA21 mi64 minS 510.00 miFair50°F49°F98%1016.9 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA21 mi1.7 hrsSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F48°F81%1016.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA22 mi1.7 hrsSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F49°F83%1015.9 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA22 mi45 minS 610.00 miFair53°F48°F83%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from SFQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE9NE7E6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:27 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:38 AM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:02 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.91.52.22.83.23.232.51.81.20.80.60.71.21.92.533.12.92.41.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chuckatuck Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Chuckatuck Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:45 PM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.81.42.12.62.92.92.72.21.610.70.50.71.21.82.42.72.82.62.11.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.