Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Benns Church, VA

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Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:38 AM EDT (04:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 1229 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1229 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain offshore through this weekend as a cold front approaches the area. The front stalls near the virginia and north carolina border early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benns Church, VA
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location: 36.83, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180113
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
913 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remain off the southeast u.S. Coast through
tonight. A cold front moves slowly into the region over the
weekend, before stalling near the virginia and north carolina
border early next week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 910 pm edt Friday...

radar trends over the last few hours show diminishing convection
across the mid-atlantic states this evening and across the
wakefield CWA the showers have generally stayed away from the
area since the heating diminished after 23z. So have made only a
few minor tweaks to the forecast, mainly to adjust the skycover
as away from the cirrus and mid deck from left over convection
there are lots of breaks in the clouds. So tried to show a more
optimistic few on the amount of the clouds especially across
southern portions of the cwa. Also trimmed back the chances for
showers overnight as without a forcing mechanism see little
chance of rain overnight. Have left temperatures forecast as it
was a sfc dewpoints have really come up across the cwa,
especially over the DELMARVA where readings are in the upper
70s. This should limit the cooling overnight there.

Prev discussion...

widespread cumulus, a bit more than yesterday, and a few
showers isolated tstms have developed this afternoon across
portions of the area. Coverage should remain similar to what is
being observed now, but did bring slight chance pops further
east to the i-64 i-95 interchange based on radar trends. Cam
guidance has been poor in regards to convective development, so
will have to keep a close eye on radar visible trends through
early evening for any notable changes. Otherwise, expect partly
cloudy skies into the evening and temps falling into the 80s.

Overnight lows will be in the low 70s west to mid-upper 70s
along the water.

A few showers are possible pre-dawn Saturday over the eastern shore
as additional moisture streams in from the south over open waters.

Then, a pre-frontal trough approaches mid-morning early afternoon
from the west, leading to shower TSTM development west-to-
east... With the greatest coverage expected after noontime,
continuing through early Sunday morning. High temps should still
reach into the low 90s areawide, even with sky cover increasing from
partly to mostly cloudy.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 315 pm edt Friday...

first wave of more widespread showers and tstms will move east
of the area Saturday night. Expect at least scattered showers to
linger across central and eastern sections of the area through
Saturday night. Warm and humid again, with lows in the low mid
70s.

Frontal boundary settles across the area on Sunday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms re-developing, especially
during the afternoon evening hours. Amount of cloudiness across
the area will limit MAX temps. In addition, if flow turns from
the NE soon enough across the lower md eastern shore,
temperatures could remain in the upper 70s there. Otherwise,
expect MAX temps to be a bit cooler on Sunday, mainly in the
mid upper 80s.

Monday looks to be a cooler day with high temps in the lower to
mid 80s, as high pressure noses into northern portions of the
area from the ne. Could well remain in the upper 70s delmarva
areas, should E NE flow be strong enough, and skies remain
cloudy. Overall, Monday looks to be a partly to mostly cloudy
day. Showers and tstms will again be possible, especially
southern third of the region, with the greatest coverage during
the afternoon hours. NAM appears too pessimistic at this time,
and have gone somewhat closer to gfs ECMWF for pops.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

an upper level trough will be centered over the upper midwest
Tuesday morning, with a broad upper ridge well offshore of the mid-
atlantic. This will put us in moist SW flow aloft. At the surface,
low pressure will be centered over illinois michigan wisconsin by 12z
Tuesday. As the area of low pressure moves eastward on Tuesday, deep
moisture will surge into the region ahead of a trailing cold front
(gfs forecast pw values are between 2-2.5" by Tuesday afternoon).

Thus, am expecting scattered shower t-storm development throughout
the region during the day on Tuesday, with coverage peaking during
the afternoon evening hours. Have maintained chance pops throughout
the CWA on Tuesday. The latest 17 12z GFS and ECMWF are slightly
quicker with the FROPA than yesterday's runs (cmc still a bit
slower). Therefore, it looks like the best chance for shower t-storm
development Wed afternoon-evening will be along and ahead of the
front over SE va NE nc. Have pops between 20-50% (lowest NW highest
se) on Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF push the front south of the
cwa by Thursday morning, but the cmc stalls it over NE nc. Went with
a gfs ECMWF solution for late next week, with mainly dry (and
slightly cooler) weather on Thursday and Friday as sfc high pressure
remains just north of the region. Cannot rule out a stray shower or
two across the region (most likely south of i-64), but kept pops at
or below 30% on Thu fri.

Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows ranging from around 70
degrees inland to the low-mid 70s in coastal areas. Slightly cooler
(with lower dew points) behind the cold front on Thursday and
Friday, with highs in the low-mid 80s.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 730 pm edt Friday...

much of the sct CU from earlier this afternoon has dissipated
as of 730 pm this evening. A few isolated showers t-storms are
still ongoing over northern va, leaving only sct-bkn mid high
clouds across much of the area. Expect mostly clear skies below
~20k feet and winds to remain out of the S SW at 5-12 kt
throughout the night. Therefore, am not expecting much in the
way of br at the terminals. A cold front will approach from the
north on Saturday. Expect sct-bkn CU between 3-5k feet to
develop during the early afternoon hours. Scattered to numerous
showers t-storms are expected to develop over central southern
va during the mid to late afternoon hours. At this time, it
looks like the best chances for t-storms at the terminals will
be from 3 to 11 pm on Saturday. For now, have introduced vcsh at
all the terminals. Brief ifr lifr visibilities are possible in
any t-storm due to +ra. Winds are expected to remain out of the
sw tomorrow at around 10 kt.

Outlook... The front will remain over the region on Sunday with the
chance of showers t-storms continuing. The front drops south of the
region Monday with a chance of showers t-storms mainly across SRN va
and NE nc. Unsettled conditions potentially continue into Tuesday.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

no headlines necessary with this forecast package. Sfc high
pressure resides offshore tonight into Sat as a trough of low
pressure remains over the mid atlantic. SW winds up to ~15 kt
over the bay and 15-20 kt over coastal wtrs with 2-4 ft seas. A
cold front then drops into the area during the day Sun leading
to unsettled conditions with SW winds shifting to N NE by sun
night mon. Sub-sca conditions expected to continue into early
next week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz bms
near term... Bms ess
short term... Ajz wrs
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri
marine... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 11 mi39 min SSW 15 G 18 82°F 1016.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 12 mi39 min SSW 11 G 16 82°F 1016.2 hPa (+0.0)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 14 mi39 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 81°F 86°F1016.4 hPa (+0.4)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 14 mi39 min 84°F1016.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi45 min SSW 18 G 20 83°F 1015.3 hPa
44087 25 mi69 min 83°F1 ft
44064 27 mi39 min SW 16 G 18 83°F 1 ft1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 28 mi39 min SSW 7 G 11 84°F 85°F1015.4 hPa (+0.0)
CHBV2 28 mi45 min SW 12 G 17 84°F 1015.1 hPa
44072 30 mi39 min SW 16 G 18 84°F 84°F2 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi39 min SSW 7 G 11 82°F 1014.7 hPa (+0.0)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 31 mi45 min SW 15 G 16 85°F 1016.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 38 mi39 min SW 15 G 19 83°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi69 min SW 1 82°F 1016 hPa78°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 44 mi69 min 82°F3 ft

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA11 mi64 minS 510.00 miFair80°F76°F90%1016.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA16 mi1.7 hrsSSW 7 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F73°F74%1016.5 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA17 mi64 minS 67.00 miFair78°F75°F91%1016.9 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA19 mi48 minSSW 15 G 2110.00 miFair83°F75°F79%1016.2 hPa
Franklin / J B Rose, VA21 mi64 minS 510.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1016.9 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA21 mi1.7 hrsSSW 1110.00 miFair84°F75°F76%1016.6 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA22 mi1.7 hrsSSW 610.00 miFair83°F76°F80%1015.2 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA22 mi45 minSSW 1010.00 miFair83°F73°F74%1016 hPa

Wind History from SFQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5SW5CalmSW6SW7S10S7S10SW7SW8SW3CalmS3S4S5S7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W5SW6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W7W8W8W6W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
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Sat -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 04:08 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:21 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:45 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:22 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.62.22.72.92.82.41.81.20.70.40.50.91.52.32.93.33.43.22.72.11.40.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:31 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:54 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.42.233.53.73.42.821.20.60.50.71.42.23.13.84.24.23.83.12.31.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.