Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Benns Church, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:54PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:17 PM EST (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 8:55AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 659 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 659 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides by north of the region tonight, as a frontal boundary stalls over the southeast states through Saturday. The front will lift back north as a warm front Saturday night. A cold front will then cross the region on Sunday and Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benns Church, VA
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location: 36.83, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230200
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
900 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the southeastern
states into Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the
great lakes into new england. The front will lift back north as
a warm front Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front
will cross the region during Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 900 pm est Friday...

latest msas has a stalled frontal boundary across the sern states
with a sfc trof extending north along the mts. Meanwhile, 1032 mb
sfc high was located over michigan. A steady steam of moisture
in the form of mainly light rain (amounts AOB .10 inches) conts
to move east across the area this evening while drier air to the
north keeping the NRN neck lwr md ERN shore dry. Temps 40-45.

High res data basically keeps the same conditions going thru 06z
then begins to shift the main batch of pcpn along and south of
i64. Thus, adjusted grids a bit according to current conditions.

Highest pops across the sw, quickly tapering off to chc north
of i64. Staying dry across the lwr md ERN shore. Just enough dry
air progged to come in from the north to allow dew point temps
to fall a bit from current readings, thus overnight lows should
end up in the upr 30s-lwr 40s, except mid 30s lwr md ERN shore.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 345 pm est Friday...

sat will feature competing influences on local temperatures.

The aforementioned surface high to the north will slide off the
new england coast in response to deepening low pressure across
the central plains moving northeast into the midwest. An in-
situ cad wedge airmass will be entrenched across the piedmont,
as widespread clouds and pcpn help to reinforce the near sfc
stable layer. At the same time, a warm front will lift northward
twd the area fm the south. There will likely be a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the region on sat, with highs
ranging fm the lower 40s across the far northwest to the lower
50s across the extrm southeast. Widespread pcpn (possibly at
least moderate rain) is expected over the area Sat aftn thru
sat night, as the warm front lifts into and acrs the region.

Winds become SE then S in the wake of the front with steady
rain transitioning to showers after the warm front passes. Lows
sat night will range fm the upper 30s extrm nw, to around 50
extrm se.

A cold front will approach the region Sun morning, then push
acrs the area and off the coast Sun aftn into Sun evening.

Southwest winds will become west and gusty Sun aftn into early
sun evening behind the cold front. Rain chances will come to an
end as the front crosses the region, with a clearing sky
expected fm west to east. Storm total precip will average
between 0.75-1 inch with the highest totals expected across the
southwest west quadrant of the area where 1.25-1.50" is
possible. Given the recent wet weather, and what is expected to
fall this weekend, we will certainly see some river flooding
issues into early next week.

Downsloping westerly winds and increasing late-feb Sun angle
will help temps to warm considerably Sun aftn, with upper 60s
to mid 70s expected across most of the region. Decreasing
dewpoints and cooler temps will filter into the area for sun
night and mon, as high pressure builds in fm the nw. Clear and
chilly Sun night with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Sunny on Mon with highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 345 pm est Friday...

generally dry conditions thru thurs as canadian high pressure
tracks across the northern states. Models show a coastal trof
dvlpng wed. GFS wetter than ECMWF so kept slght chc shwrs along
the coast wed. Models differ Fri with the GFS quickly returning
moisture on an incrg ssw flow while the ECMWF holds off pcpn
until Fri night with a low tracking NE along the coast. Will
carry chc rain fri, increasing pops a bit Fri night.

Highs each day mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Lows in the 30s
to near 40 se.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 700 pm est Friday...

sw flow will continue to bring waves of moisture over the
area. Surface high pressure centered over the great lakes and
new england has pushed a frontal system south into sc ga this
evening. MainlyVFR condition are around the area this evening
as rain showers move across the area. There might be brief
periods of MVFR condition due to reduced visibility associated
with heavier showers. The front currently located in sc ga will
move north as a warm front lowering CIGS to MVFR levels by
15-18z Sat across the area. The front will also bring heavier
rain, reducing visibility. As the warm front moves closer to the
area, CIGS may drop to ifr at kphf korf kecg before the end of
the TAF period tomorrow. Wind will go from calm tonight to E at
~10 kt tomorrow as the pressure gradient increase.

Outlook... A cold front will push acrs the area and offshore
during sun, with conditions improving toVFR fm west to east
behind the front. Southwest winds will become west and gusty sun
aftn.

Marine
As of 300 pm est Friday...

current thinking remains pretty similar to the previous shift as
high pressure building into the area this afternoon through mid
afternoon on Saturday should allow for benign conditions on the
waters. The models do have some subtle timing difference on how
quickly the warm front moves through the area on Saturday
evening with the NAM a touch faster than the GFS with the 12z
runs. This results in the NAM tightening the gradient some
across the lower bay on Saturday evening so did tick winds up a
just touch there, but overall kept conditions below SCA levels
through Saturday night.

Behind the warm front, the winds pick up out of the south and
could be gusty especially in some of the showers that move
through the area. The strongest winds aloft at 925 are well
ahead of the front where the mixing is not as favorable to have
kept gust in the SCA range at this point. But will have to watch
is as the front GOES through there is a period where the mixing
improves and the wind gust could briefly get to the gale range,
but for now have kept conditions in the SCA range. Behind the
front, the cold advection is really good through the day on
Monday so expect to see a prolonged period of 20 - 25 kt winds
across the waters. The gust will not be a good Sunday night, but
expect good mixing on Monday so have higher gust up to near gale
force.

By Monday night, high pressure is building into the area and
with the cold advection weakening, should see conditions
relaxing below SCA levels. This area of high pressure will
slowly track across the region through the mid week time period
with generally benign conditions expected until a cold front
crosses the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

Hydrology
As of 900 pm est Friday...

flood warnings cont portions of the james, nottoway and meherrin
rivers thru the weekend. See flsakq for details.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches could see some locations
climb at least into action stage if not reaching minor flood at
locations like farmville. The amount of rain will be key as the
soil across the region remains saturated lead to much of the
rain running off not soaking in.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Mpr
short term... Tmg rhr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Tmg cp
marine... Ess
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 11 mi47 min ENE 6 G 7 42°F 1030.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 12 mi47 min ENE 6 G 8 43°F 1030 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 14 mi47 min NE 1 G 2.9 44°F 48°F1029.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 14 mi47 min 46°F1030.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi47 min ENE 8 G 8.9 43°F 1029.6 hPa
44087 25 mi77 min 43°F1 ft
44064 27 mi27 min E 5.8 G 5.8 42°F 1030 hPa
CHBV2 28 mi47 min E 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 1029.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 28 mi47 min E 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 45°F1029.8 hPa
44072 30 mi27 min 42°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi47 min NNE 7 G 8 43°F 1028.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 31 mi47 min ESE 5.1 G 6 42°F 1030.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 38 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi47 min Calm 42°F 1031 hPa41°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 44 mi47 min 44°F2 ft

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA11 mi42 minN 07.00 miLight Rain43°F41°F93%1030.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA16 mi78 minNE 37.00 miLight Rain43°F37°F82%1031 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA17 mi22 minNE 310.00 miLight Rain41°F38°F91%1030.5 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA19 mi26 minENE 510.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F89%1029.9 hPa
Franklin / J B Rose, VA21 mi42 minN 010.00 miLight Drizzle42°F41°F97%1030.1 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA21 mi81 minE 610.00 miLight Rain42°F40°F92%1031.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA22 mi23 minE 38.00 miLight Rain42°F37°F85%1030.1 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA22 mi81 minN 010.00 miLight Rain43°F38°F84%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from SFQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW9CalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE11
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E3E6CalmCalmNE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
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Fri -- 06:02 AM EST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:27 PM EST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.12.31.20.2-0.5-0.8-0.50.21.32.43.23.53.32.61.70.6-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.10.91.92.9

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:27 AM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:51 PM EST     4.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:59 PM EST     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.34.33.62.41.1-0.1-0.8-0.9-0.30.82.13.34.14.43.92.91.60.4-0.6-0.9-0.60.31.62.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.