Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:48 AM   Moonset 11:22 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS66 KHNX 300749 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1249 AM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KEY MESSAGES

1. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes valid from 4 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Wednesday morning.

2. High temperatures will change little through Wednesday, remaining around climatological averages for this time of year.

3. Warming conditions are expected late in the week with highs around 8 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday. Probabilities of exceedance for 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley and portions of the Kern County desert are around 10 to 20%.

4. Ensemble guidance is trending towards a weekend system bringing snowfall to the central Sierra Nevada and periods of rainfall to the San Joaquin Valley.

DISCUSSION
Seasonal temperatures will continue today into Wednesday, along with dry conditions. Highs in the warmest spots will be mainly in the lower 80's. The upper-level trough persists in the Pacific Northwest with a ridge of high pressure off the coast of California. This pattern will continue to provide a sufficient gradient for gusty winds along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County once again for later this afternoon until Wednesday morning. During this period, the chances of gusts exceeding 50 mph is about 60 to 75 percent for this area and about 25 to 40 percent for gusts of at least 55 mph. We will keep the Wind Advisory running for now, as areal coverage for any stronger gusts is limited, based on the latest high resolution ensemble guidance.

For Thursday through Saturday, a noticeable warming trend is in store as the ridge builds over the Golden State. However, the ridge will weaken a bit as it moves inland. High temperatures by Friday are projected to rise to around ten degrees above seasonal averages. A few locations in the Central Valley could possibly reach near 90 degrees on Friday. However, based on the latest probabilistic data, the exceedance values for temperatures reaching at least 90 degrees have lowered to around 10 to 20 percent for the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County desert, particularly the Indian Wells Valley.

For Saturday night into Sunday, there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding precipitation chances. Although, chances for precipitation have expanded to much of our forecast area, including into Kern County. In any case, cooler than normal temperatures and increased winds return to our area by Sunday.

During early next week, our region could remain a bit cooler than average, based on the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, as well as ensemble guidance. There is a good chance we return to a zonal flow or remain in a weak trough pattern, based on latest cluster analyses of ensemble models provided by the Weather Prediction Center. Otherwise, a minor warming trend occurs with seasonal temperatures on next Tuesday.


AVIATION
Strong wind gusts 40 kts to near 50 kts are possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes from 23Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across central California for at least the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

San Joaquin Valley, CA,