Thursday, June20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Adak, AK

Version 3.4
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:56 PM HST (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Adak, AK
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location: 36.88, -180     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201216
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
416 am akdt Thu jun 20 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Aloft there is a ridge axis that extends from prince william sound
to the interior of alaska. With this ridge axis aloft thermal
troughs have set up in several valleys and multiple places have
been reaching the 70s. Yesterday afternoon, gulkana hit 74f and
seward peaked at 70f. Lightning strikes were detected over the
copper river basin. Looking at satellite imagery there is a lot of
marine stratus near kodiak, the barren islands and over the gulf
of alaska and the bering. Also on satellite imagery, diffuse smoke
is visible over portions of southcentral. There is a mature
frontal boundary in the north pacific southwest of kodiak.

Looking at synoptic features out west, there is a decaying surface
and upper level low is over southwest alaska and an area of high
pressure is over the central aleutians that extends into the
central bering sea. The nearest jet core is by kamchatka and attu

Model discussion
The models are in good synoptic agreement in the short term.

However, after the weekend the run to run continuity with the
global models is poor. This introduces a considerable amount of
uncertainty for southcentral ak for the later portion of the
forecast package.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Fire weather
A gradual warming trend is expected across southcentral alaska
over the next several days. The warmest temperatures are expected
in low areas (specifically, the copper river basin, mat-su
valleys, and interior kenai peninsula). In these areas,
temperatures will handedly reach the low to mid 70s with a few
locations near 80f in the afternoon. Unstable conditions will
develop as a result of diurnal heating. The models are pinging
into heightened convective parameters (i.E. Negative lifted
indices, enhanced CAPE and favorable totals total) that would be
capable of initiating thunderstorm development along the talkeetna
mountains, alaska range and copper river basin the next several
afternoons. Once the Sun sets and it gets dark, the boundary layer
will become very stable and this will impact ventilation. Where
there are areas of smoke, expect it to settle. Looking at the
weather pattern and the previous trend in rh values, the current
thinking is that minimum relative humidity values should remain
sufficiently above 25 percent for at least the next two days.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)...

this morning's clouds across southcentral scatter this afternoon
allowing temperatures to warm a few degrees higher than yesterday
as a thermal ridge across the interior nudges south. During the
morning hours across the northern kenai and possible the
anchorage bowl, the smell of smoke from the swan lake fire north
of sterling may be evident as a stable air mass traps smoke near
the surface. This should improve late morning as rising surface
temperatures help mix the atmosphere.

Afternoon and evening showers with isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop mainly across the alaska and talkeetna ranges
today and tomorrow. Most of the activity should stay along the
mountains... However, a stray storm may pick up momentum over the
susitna and copper river valleys. Low clouds and patchy fog which
moved across much of the gulf and cook inlet early this morning,
persists through tonight with no improvement expected on Friday as
the next low pressure system pushes a front into the gulf
tonight. This front will mainly impact the central and southern
waters bringing small craft easterly winds and rain. A few
showers may move into the eastern kenai Friday afternoon and
night, but no accumulation is expected.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Fog has developed along the bering coast but will dissipate this
morning as the Sun comes up. Then benign weather will last into
Friday when afternoon showers will develop. The majority of the
shower activity will be over the mountains and there is also a
chance for thunderstorm development around the middle kuskokwim
valley. More showers will develop Saturday with another chance of
thunderstorms that will extend south to areas around bristol bay.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
High pressure remains over the western bering that will start to
shift east this evening. This will make way for a system from the
north pacific to approach the western aleutians Friday and bring
rain and gale force winds to the area by Friday night. The system
will slowly track farther east through Saturday making it to the
central aleutians. However, the system will be weakening and winds
should drop below gale force as the front moves into the central

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Beginning the longer term marine forecast on Saturday, the storm
track will be shifting west over the western bering sea as a gale
force low moves in Saturday, then lifts north and weakens through
Monday. While the strongest winds will remain over the western
bering aleutians, there will be longer fetch southerly winds which
will bring some higher seas as far east as the pribilof islands.

Dutch harbor may see a brief period of gusty southerly winds as
well. Otherwise, the eastern bering sea will remain quiet with sea
stratus fog and generally lighter winds.

A departing low will be replaced by light west winds over the gulf
of alaska Saturday through Monday, with high confidence that no
storms or strong fronts will be anywhere near the gulf of
alaska north gulf coast.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
There is no change in the overall thinking of the extended period
forecasting beginning Saturday evening as an interior ridge builds
as a gulf low departs to the southeast. The yukon interior ridge
will build west as offshore flow across southcentral results in
further warming through the weekend. Uncertainty still exists from
Tuesday through the remainder of the week as the global numerical
guidance continues to struggle with low amplitude disturbances
passing through the upper ridge. However, the signal in the noise
is with warm interior temps inland, this will be enough to promote
the potential for inland thunderstorms, mainly across southcentral
where the greatest instability will reside. The timing of these
low amplitude shortwave troughs is very uncertain at this
juncture, but any of these waves could spark off rather widespread
thunderstorms across parts of southcentral (favoring interior and
the mountains) Sunday-Tuesday.

Farther west, a series of lows will be tracking across the bering
sea and sending clouds more stable air into southwest alaska as
early as Monday. Much uncertainty develops Wednesday as all the
global models (ecmwf GFS canadian and their respective ensembles)
depict an impressive array of highly disparate solutions from high
amplitude ridging warming over the interior with fronts passing
into the southern mainland. These disparities arise from potential
northern stream influences from the arctic to storms moving into
the bering sea from the pacific. For now, expect warm temps (above
climo across the southern mainland) to last through Wednesday
before uncertainty grows. However, with that said, there is still
a strong signal that the warm period will persist through the end
of the week in most of the guidance (ensembles and statistical

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
marine long term... Ja

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