Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
La Selva Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:26PM Monday July 16, 2018 10:19 PM PDT (05:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:10AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 850 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves around 3 ft this evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell around 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell around 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog.
Tue night..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog.
Wed night..SW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell around 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ500 850 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A 1029 mb high centered 900 miles off the oregon coast will strengthen and shift slightly eastward Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in increasing winds over the northern outer waters. Winds over the remainder of the coastal waters will remain light. A long-period southerly swell is forecast to arrive this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Selva Beach, CA
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location: 36.93, -121.85     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 170455
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
955 pm pdt Mon jul 16 2018

Synopsis A modest warming trend is forecast to continue through
midweek as upper level high pressure continues to build.

Monsoonal moisture is then projected to begin moving into our
area from the south starting around Wednesday night. Model
solutions vary in the details, but there is some possibility of
high-based showers or thunderstorms for our area beginning around
Wednesday evening in the far south and across the entire forecast
area by Thursday.

Discussion As of 9:45 pm pdt Monday... Latest fog product
satellite imagery shows stratus now blanketing the coast, moving
in through the golden gate to the berkeley hills, and already
beginning to extend down the salinas valley. Highs this afternoon
warmed up several degrees from yesterday inland but generally
similar nearer the waters. Issuing a quick update for MAX temps
Tuesday to bring in line with those today and latest model
projections. Temps will continue to warm inland, but much less so
coastal areas where the marine layer looks to remain entrenched.

Also adding in mention of possible local late night early morning
coastal drizzle consistent with similar occurrence the past two
nights.

Otherwise present forecasts appear basically on track.

Prev discussion As of 01:30 pm pdt Monday... Typical july
afternoon around the bay area as morning clouds slowly eroded back
to the immediate coast. As of 1 pm, sunny skies prevail across
much of the interior allowing for a decent warmup over 24 hours
ago. Temperatures will likely top out in the 90s to near 100 deg.

Definitely a different story at the coast as lingering clouds keep
temperatures in check.

For tonight, low clouds and patchy fog will once again roll back
inland. Cool and wet conditions across the lower elevations, but a
thermal belt will keep ridges much milder and drier.

The warming trend noticed today will continue through Wednesday as
high pressure builds over the region. High pressure currently over
socal will slowly drift northward and build over the bay area with
warming 850mb temps and rising 500mb heights. The rising h5 will
help to further compress the marine layer, but given lack of
offshore flow it does not appear to completely mix out. The
warmest temperatures will be across the interior with highs in the
90s to lower 100s. Did bump a few far interior locations as 850mb
temps approach 27 c. The mild overnight lows combined with triple
digit heat will increase heat risk potential. At this point, it
appears to be more pockets of moderate heat risk potential than
widespread. Therefore, will not issue any heat advisories at this
time. Despite no heat products people in sensitive groups
should still take precautions. Temperatures will finally cool a
few late in the week and over the weekend.

The next noteworthy item will be the chance for thunderstorms
across portions of ca. As of now, models show an increase in
monsoonal moisture Wednesday into Thursday. Models vary greatly
on the specifics with the NAM leaning toward possible
thunderstorms and the GFS ec much less. The GFS has moisture, but
lacks instability. The ec keeps most of the focus south and east
of the forecast area. The NAM however, shows some promise with
increased moisture, decent mu CAPE from 700-500mb, decent
700-500mb lapse rates and high modified total totals. The last
time the bay area had a push of monsoon moisture the NAM verified
well. That being said, would like to have one more run of models
before committing to adding thunderstorms to the forecast. A good
way to put it now is it's a non-zero event. If it were to happen
the NAM timing puts thunderstorms possible Wednesday night
through Thursday.

Aviation As of 4:30 pm pdt Monday... Visible satellite imagery
showing a typical stratus pattern along the coast. A northwest
onshore flow will bring stratus into southern mry bay early this
evening and into the sfo bay area after 06z... Little change from
yesterday.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR through the airport evening rush. Ifr cigs
after 09z. Northwest winds gusting 25-27 kt through 04z.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Stratus over the southern half of mry bay
due to northwest onshore flow. Ifr CIGS into mry after 03z and sns
after 05z.

Marine As of 08:50 pm pdt Monday... A 1029 mb high centered
900 miles off the oregon coast will strengthen and shift slightly
eastward Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in increasing
winds over the northern outer waters. Winds over the remainder of
the coastal waters will remain light. A long-period southerly
swell is forecast to arrive this weekend.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt None
public forecast: blier mm
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 10 mi94 min WNW 4.1 58°F 1015 hPa56°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi75 min WNW 7.8 58°F 58°F1015.2 hPa (-0.0)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 21 mi28 min 60°F1 ft
MEYC1 23 mi43 min WNW 4.1 G 7 58°F 62°F1016 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 30 mi19 min 60°F4 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 31 mi29 min NW 9.7 G 12 59°F 60°F3 ft1015.2 hPa (+0.4)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 43 mi19 min 57°F3 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 44 mi31 min N 6 G 7 62°F 74°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA3 mi26 minE 410.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1015.8 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA23 mi24 minSW 510.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1015.2 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA23 mi26 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1016.5 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA23 mi25 minW 410.00 miOvercast60°F55°F84%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE3E3SE4E4CalmCalmNE3S3CalmCalmCalmSW6SW7SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9SW8SW7SW6S3E4
1 day agoNE5NE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE5NE3E4SW4CalmS5S86S10SW10
G16
SW10S9S10S7S6S3SE5
2 days agoSE3S3CalmNE3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm6SE6SE5SW8S9S8SE6E7E8E7E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge, Monterery Bay, California
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Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge
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Tue -- 02:30 AM PDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM PDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:16 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:03 PM PDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:22 PM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.355.55.54.93.82.41-0-0.3-0.10.71.72.93.94.754.84.23.32.422.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:06 AM PDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:00 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM PDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:52 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM PDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:13 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:46 PM PDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:27 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.50.30-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.300.40.70.80.70.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.