Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portsmouth, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 20, 2019 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:08PMMoonset 6:21AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 647 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 647 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight, then becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Portsmouth, VA
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location: 36.929, -76.345     debug


7 Day Forecast for Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.834, -75.409     


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201528
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1128 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west this afternoon and crosses
the area this evening. High pressure returns Tuesday and
Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1100 am edt Monday...

latest analysis indicates a strong low pressure system over
quebec, with a trailing cold front extending SW and now moving
into the west slope of appalachians. A wsw flow prevails aloft,
with the center of the upper ridge over the gulf of mexico
extending NE into the gulf stream off the carolina coast. This
setup is providing one final hot summerlike day for the local
area. Temperatures as of 15z have already risen above 80 f for
just about everyone (even ocean city), with dew pts mostly in
the mid to upper 60s.

For the remainder of today, strong shortwave energy currently
located over lake huron is progged to shift east to the st
lawrence valley by late this aftn and evening. At the sfc, the
pressure gradient will remain fairly strong as the sfc cold
front moves E of the mtns by about 21z. The best dynamics and
higher shear values for strong tstms will stay N of the CWA (as
will the higher coverage of showers and storms due to the front
becoming moisture starved over the local area. Given strong
daytime heating an isolated strong to marginally severe storm
still can't be ruled out during the late aftn and early evening
hrs (mainly over the n) while brief gusty winds and heavy
downpours will as always be possible in any tstm. Not much of a
chance for any precip before 19z 3pm, with pops ramping up to
~30% across the NW 1 3 of the CWA from 19-22z, shifting se
towards the ches bay between 21z- 00z, and then becoming mostly
confined to SE va NE nc and the eastern shore after 00z with
pops up to 30-40%. High temperatures today will be similar to
yesterday, ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s, though a
glance at soundings and some deeper mixing suggests that sfc
dew pts drop a few degrees lower compared to yesterday so that
during peak aftn heating the dew pts will mostly range in the
lower to mid 60s.

The front and associated pcpn pushes offshore from 03-06z with
clearing behind it. Winds shift to the nnw and CAA allows temps
to drop into the mid-upr 50s NW to the mid 60s SE by 12z tue. It
will remain fairly breezy in the wake of the front along the bay
and coast.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 315 am edt Monday...

seasons (briefly) switch back to spring tues Wed as canadian high
pressure brings cooler temps and lwr humidity levels, but
actually not far off the normals for mid-late may. Dry with
mstly sunny skies both Tue Wed and mstly clr Tue night. Highs
tues mostly in the 70s except near 80 SW most zones. Lows tue
night in the 50s except some upr 40s psbl in those normally
cooler locations over the piedmont. Highs Wed upper 70s to lower
80s inland, and lower to mid 70s near the bay and ocean.

The high shifts east Wed night and thurs allowing the start of
the next warmup. Models now show a NW flow upr level flow
pattern setting up allowing for another round of upstream
convective complexes to dive se. One such system is progged to
do just that late Wed night across the NRN half of the local
area with another one progged late thurs. Timing can be a
problem this far out so kept slight chc pops in for now with
plenty of time to update as necessary. Lows Wed night upr 50s-
lwr 60s. Highs thurs mid-upr 80s, upper 70s-lwr 80s near the
water.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 315 am edt Monday...

Friday through Sunday will be the warmest days of the week. The
upper-level high will build northeast over the mid-atlantic and the
sfc flow will be out of nw. With the ridge and downsloping, highs
may reach the mid 90s, especially in the richmond metro. Highs
will get to near 90 at the va and nc beaches and inland eastern
shore. Temperatures at night will not cool off much, lows will
be around 70.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 630 am edt Monday...

vfr conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure
remains off the carolina coast. A cold front crosses the area late
this aftn and eve. Models show a narrow band of moisture with
this feature, but no more than a 2-3 hr pcpn window at any one
taf site. Although confidence is low for adding thunder attm,
went ahead and indicated a several hr period of bkn CU starting
at ric sby into the erly eve, shifting toward the coast at
phf orf ecg arnd 00z. Expect gusty SW wind 15-20 kts today ahead
of the apprchg cold front. Winds shift to the NW tonight behind
the fropa.

Outlook...

vfr conditions continue through Wed as high pressure is slow to move
east. A NW flow pattern sets up by the end of the week. This may lead
to sct convection moving nw-se across the area starting late
wed night and thurs.

Marine
As of 315 am edt Monday...

high pressure off the mid atlantic coast and low pressure over the
great lakes is resulting in ssw winds ~15 knots across the marine
area early this morning. A few gusts to 20 knots were noted
overnight at the elevated sites of the eastern ches bay but gusts
have largely dropped below 20 knots. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft
with 2-4 ft seas offshore.

South and southwesterly flow will continue today with 10-15 knots in
the bay and 15-20 knots offshore by mid to late afternoon as a
trough cold front approaches from the nw. This front will drop south
and east tonight with the chance for a few thunderstorms ahead of
the boundary. Fairly modest pressure rises of 4-6mb in 6 hours are
shown on both the NAM and the GFS behind the frontal passage but
high res guidance continues to show a surge of northwesterly winds
in the wake of the front late tonight and early Tuesday. Winds in
the bay will generally run 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots from
roughly midnight tonight through mid morning Tuesday. Accordingly,
have issued a small craft advisory for ches bay and lower james
river from late tonight through 10am Tuesday. Waves will briefly
build to ~3 ft overnight and then subside to 1-2 ft by Tuesday
afternoon. Winds offshore will also run 15-20 knots with gusts to 25
knots with seas 3-4 ft in offshore flow. Winds decrease to 5-15
knots later Tuesday into Wednesday before swinging around to the
northeast and then south by Thursday as high pressure moves
offshore and ridging aloft builds over the southeast.

Climate
* records for today Mon 5 20:
* salisbury so far has a new record high min today if this
value stands through midnight lst (1am edt).

* site record high record high min
* richmond: 96 (1934) 71 (2018) (actual low 69)
* norfolk: 98 (1996) 73 (1996) (actual low 71)
* salisbury: 98 (1911) 70 (2018) *(actual low 71)
* eliz city: 98 (1996) 73 (2018) (actual low 71)
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 am edt Tuesday for
anz630>632-634-638.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 1 mi43 min 72°F1014.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 3 mi43 min SW 8 G 12 80°F 1014.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 4 mi43 min SW 13 G 14 76°F 1013.9 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 5 mi43 min SW 12 G 17 76°F 1014.9 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 11 mi43 min W 8 G 12 80°F 73°F1014.8 hPa
44087 12 mi37 min 70°F1 ft
44064 14 mi47 min WSW 7.8 G 12 74°F 1014.6 hPa
CHBV2 16 mi43 min SW 8.9 G 12 76°F 1014 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 18 mi43 min SW 8.9 G 16 80°F 1014.8 hPa
44072 19 mi47 min 76°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi43 min WSW 16 G 17 78°F 1014.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 22 mi43 min SSW 12 G 16 80°F 72°F1013.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 25 mi43 min SSW 7 G 8.9 70°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 33 mi37 min 67°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 59 mi43 min WSW 8.9 G 15 81°F 73°F1013.5 hPa
44014 - VIRGINIA BEACH 64 NM East of Virginia Beach, VA 83 mi47 min SSW 9.7 G 12 65°F 62°F2 ft1016.6 hPa (-0.4)65°F

Wind History for South Craney Island, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA3 mi98 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F66°F67%1015.7 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA8 mi46 minSW 16 G 2210.00 miFair83°F66°F57%1014.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA11 mi1.7 hrsSW 169.00 miA Few Clouds79°F68°F69%1015.8 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA17 mi43 minSSW 1210.00 miFair83°F70°F65%1014.4 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA18 mi41 minSW 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F66°F62%1014.9 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA19 mi42 minSW 8 G 1410.00 miFair80°F66°F62%1015.6 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA21 mi1.7 hrsWSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F69°F72%1014.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi62 minSW 10 G 1610.00 miFair81°F67°F64%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6S8SW96
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1 day agoNW5NE8E15E12E11E7E10SE8SE6SE5SE6S6SE5SE6S4S5SE4S5S6S35S6S75
2 days agoSW10SW13
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NW10NW6CalmCalmSW3CalmSW7
G16
W5S3SW6SW4SW3CalmNW3N5N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sewells Point, Hampton Roads, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:33 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.1-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.60.10.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.30.411.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.