Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 9:51 AM   Moonset 12:12 AM

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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 210 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
This afternoon - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 5 seconds, W 4 ft at 14 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Tonight - W wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds, W 5 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog. Tue - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds, W 5 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed - SW wind around 5 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds, W 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds, W 4 ft at 13 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Thu - S wind around 5 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Fri - S wind around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Fri night - SW wind around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 210 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
moderate to fresh breezes out of the northwest through at least the midweek, then ease to become gentle to moderate, and more southwesterly. The far northwestern outer waters may occasionally gust stronger to gale force late tonight and early Tuesday morning, but afterwards weakens. Fair weather continues, though marine stratus will create overcast skies through much of the week. Significant wave heights will continue to build to 12-15 feet in the northern outer waters by Tuesday. As a result, conditions in the outer waters will be hazardous for small craft during the early portion of the week. Wave heights then gradually diminish into the late week.

FXUS66 KMTR 140000 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 500 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Relatively quiet pattern persists through the forecast period with morning marine stratus and clear skies elsewhere. Inland temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak upper low continues to slowly traverse into the southwest US while gradually deepening our marine layer. The main result of this will be a slightly greater extent of marine stratus inland.
However, the overall pattern continues to be dominated by a stout longwave ridge over the Eastern Pacific, so afternoons will be clear across the area with stratus lingering along coastal areas.
Afternoon highs in the 70s for most and 60s along the coast.
Farther inland locations such as southern Monterey county eastern Contra Costa county, and northern Napa counties will see highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Through midweek, the ridge pattern strengthens slightly as the weak upper low pulls away. Though the ridge influence will be dominant, we remain on the periphery, so there is no strong signal for a pronounced warming trend through the week. Instead, afternoon highs will increase just by a few degrees from midweek into the weekend. Most areas will see the mid-70s with inland locations in the lower 80s. A few of the aforementioned warmest locations have a shot at hitting the 90 degree mark. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards the coast each afternoon.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR to MVFR-LIFR overnight. Similar to yesterday, widespread stratus coverage is starting to move into coastal region and the Fort Ord wind profiler shows the top of the marine layer to be around 1500- 1600 feet. This increases confidence that stratus will again be widespread inland and will likely reach all stations. Guidance is split on if stratus will reach LVK with the GFS showing an increase in RH and weaker winds 10-16Z which may help lower CIGs develop.
Given forecast guidance and persistence, leaning towards stratus reaching LVK for a short period from the early to mid morning hours.
Elsewhere, high end IFR to low end MVFR CIGs will initially develop during the late evening before CIGs lower and VIS drops overnight.
Increased fog potential at STS, MRY, and SNS with guidance indicating significant visibility overnight/during the early morning hours. Across the north bay winds will stay out of the south to southwest, elsewhere winds are largely west to northwest.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR transitioning to MVFR-IFR overnight.
ECMWF ensemble guidance indicates higher gusts close to 25 knots will continue through ~03-04Z with winds expected to drop off after that time. Low to moderate confidence on exact timing of stratus arrival to SFO. Earlier guidance suggested an arrival between 03-05Z but newer guidance has pushed stratus arrival back closer to 08-10Z.
Looking at both persistence and GFS guidance - leaning towards stratus arrival around 08Z but some uncertainty remains. Will continue to monitor stratus progression and revise as needed.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR transitioning to LIFR overnight.
Initial stratus push is expected to have MVFR-IFR CIGs with CIGs lowering moving into the late evening/overnight. Increased fog potential for MRY and SNS heading into the early morning hours.
Guidance indicates visibilities may drop to 1/2SM but confidence was on the lower end. For the next TAF issuance, will continue to assess trends and fog potential. Winds will stay out of the west to northwest wind. Winds will weaken overnight before moderate winds return by late tomorrow morning.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 459 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Moderate to fresh breezes out of the northwest through at least the midweek, then ease to become gentle to moderate, and more southwesterly. The far northwestern outer waters may occasionally gust stronger to gale force late tonight and early Tuesday morning, but afterwards weakens. Fair weather continues, though marine stratus will create overcast skies through much of the week. Significant wave heights will continue to build to 12-15 feet in the northern outer waters by Tuesday. As a result, conditions in the outer waters will be hazardous for small craft during the early portion of the week. Wave heights then gradually diminish into the late week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Santa Cruz
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Mon -- 01:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:02 AM PDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM PDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:51 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:11 PM PDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM PDT     3.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California, Tide feet

Point Pinos
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Mon -- 01:11 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:31 AM PDT     0.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:07 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM PDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:52 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:15 PM PDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:42 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM PDT     -0.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Pinos, California Current, knots

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