Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Capitola, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 11:22 PM PST (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 11:56PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 857 Pm Pst Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 19 seconds.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt...becoming sw 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 18 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 25 kt...becoming nw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds. Rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 10 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ500 857 Pm Pst Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... An approaching frontal system will approach tonight resulting in increasing southerly winds tonight and Wednesday. Winds will switch to westerly Wednesday night then decrease Thursday. Unstable air behind the front will produce a slight chance for Thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Capitola, CA
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location: 36.97, -121.94     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 240552
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
952 pm pst Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis Increasing clouds overnight. Next front arrives weds
morning in the north bay and then spreads rain southward later
weds afternoon into weds night for the bay area into the central
coast. Steady rain quickly turns to showers for Thursday. A round
of more organized showers is possible Thursday afternoon as the
upper low moves inland. Dry weather forecast Friday through the
weekend and into early next week.

Discussion As of 9:52 pm pst Tuesday... Frontal passage for
weds is main forecast focus with 00z NAM indicating current
forecast is on track. Forecast updates this evening were mainly to
increase rain chances Thursday afternoon as organized shortwave
passes through. At this time thunderstorm chances with small hail
look reasonably good with cold pool aloft. Forecast was also
updated to show t-storms with small hail for the north bay
Thursday afternoon as the main vort-max passes through.

Main rain band with incoming front is currently over crescent city
ca with kbhx radar starting to lite up. Rain should reach northern
sonoma after sunrise and then overspread the greater bay area
for the afternoon commute. Nicely organized textbook frontal
passage is forecast with brief moderate heavy rainfall as the
boundary moves through and some brief wind gusts in the 25-35 mph
range. The commute tomorrow afternoon and evening will be
adversely impacted with wet roads and low vsbys.

Rain will quickly turn to showers by weds evening with a relative
lull break in the wet weather as the main upper low is well behind
the surface front. Model solutions have been consistent in
bringing an organized short wave through Thursday afternoon,
mainly focused over the north bay. Expect numerous showers with
thunderstorms and small hail on Thursday afternoon as this feature
moves through. Snow levels to around 3000 feet in convective
showers with very cold air aloft and 850 mb temps around -2
celsius with -12 celsius at 700 mb suggesting very steep lapse
rates.

Shower chances will continue through Thursday evening even with
the loss of daytime heating. However by sunrise Friday all rain
showers will have ended.

Strong high pressure starts to build Friday and through the
weekend. Current long range trends suggest fairly high confidence
for dry weather starting Friday through at least the first weekend
of feb.

Prev discussion As of 12:00 pm pst Tuesday... After starting the
day 5 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday and with areas of patchy
dense fog-- dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, and increasing
high level clouds are anticipated for the remainder of the day.

These high clouds, generally at about 25000 ft, are arriving at
the leading edge of an air mass boundary which is set to pass
through the san francisco and monterey bay areas in the form of a
cold front through the day tomorrow.

Forecast models are in fair agreement regarding the timing and
strength of this storm system, with some minor discrepancies in
timing and precipitation accumulations. Generally speaking, the
forecast models anticipate the leading edge of precipitation to
move into the northern periphery of the north bay by or just after
sunrise tomorrow. The main rain band will then transition
southeastward and pass the golden gate, moving into the immediate
san francisco bay area, around or just after lunchtime. Next, the
storm system will arrive in the south bay santa cruz area by late
afternoon tomorrow before shifting farther southward into the
greater monterey bay region by tomorrow evening.

Forecast models generally agree that this system will be stronger
than the last storm system to move through the area Sunday night,
but that this system will still be on the weaker side of mid-
winter storm systems. Overall, sustained winds will be breezy with
brief stronger gusts ahead of and with the frontal passage. Winds
will peak at around 35mph over the highest peaks and some coastal
areas, while most areas will generally experience breezy winds in
the 10 to 20 mph range. Precipitation amounts range from
1.25-1.75", 0.66-1.00" in the north bay valleys, 0.33-0.66" for
the san francisco bay area, except lesser amounts in the south bay
due to rain shadowing (ie around .25-.33"), with .20-.40" in the
monterey bay area, and less than .20" in the southern salinas
valley pinnacles np area. Post frontal instability will bring some
light lingering rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm (mainly
offshore of the sonoma coast) on Thursday. We will continue to be
running below normal seasonal precipitation with the forecast
precipitation amounts. Here is where we stand as of midnight this
morning:
site since oct01 (seasonal) since jan01 (calendar)
obsrv normal %norm obsrv normal %norm
santa rosa 12.49 19.25 65 6.18 5.50 112
napa 6.04 10.69 57 3.01 3.37 89
concord 5.68 8.09 70 2.99 2.54 118
dt san francisco 7.99 12.02 66 4.70 3.18 148
sfo airport 7.51 10.36 72 4.46 3.00 149
oakland 7.52 10.60 71 4.30 3.29 131
hayward 4.77 8.82 54 2.76 2.53 109
livermore 4.80 7.92 61 2.81 2.34 120
san jose 4.27 7.27 59 2.70 2.18 124
moffett field 4.44 6.85 65 2.49 2.01 124
watsonville 5.57 10.42 53 3.32 3.20 104
monterey 6.11 7.80 78 4.13 2.65 156
santa cruz 8.33 15.08 55 5.33 4.20 127
weak ridging builds in behind tomorrow's storm system for Friday
through the weekend and into early next week, bringing dry
conditions, mild afternoons, and cold nights. Forecast models
bring a different low pressure into the area around Tuesday of
next week, however, the trajectory of this system means it will
most likely be dry and more of a wind producer, if anything, for
our area.

Aviation As of 4:30 pm pst Tuesday... A few stratocumulus
clouds this afternoon from residual low-level moisture. Next
system will bring increasing moisture Wednesday morning with lower
cigs into the sfo bay area after 15z. Timing of precip appears to
be after 20z for the sfo bay area. Southerly winds increase as
the front approaches after 20z with gusts to 25 kt.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR through tonight becoming MVFR after 15z and
light rain after 19-20z. Light south to southeast wind overnight
increasing to 15-18 kt gusting to 25 kt after 20z.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR through Wednesday morning becoming
MVFR after 20z.

Marine As of 09:33 pm pst Tuesday... An approaching frontal
system will approach tonight resulting in increasing southerly
winds tonight and Wednesday. Winds will switch to westerly
Wednesday night then decrease Thursday. Unstable air behind the
front will produce a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt Sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm from 4 am
public forecast: rww
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 15 mi98 min E 1.9 46°F 1022 hPa45°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi68 min NNW 7.8 55°F 56°F1021.7 hPa (+0.0)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 24 mi62 min 57°F4 ft
MEYC1 25 mi53 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 47°F 57°F1022.2 hPa
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 27 mi93 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 54°F 56°F7 ft1021.9 hPa (+0.0)
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 28 mi53 min 56°F7 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 40 mi53 min S 1 G 1.9 49°F 55°F1022.3 hPa
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 44 mi53 min 56°F6 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA8 mi30 minWNW 49.00 miFair44°F43°F96%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N3NW5NW3N5N3NW4NW3NW3N3E3E4NE5SE73CalmW5SW4CalmNW3NW3NW3NW4NW4
1 day agoCalmCalmNW4NW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmN3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmE3N3NW3NW4NW3NW3
2 days agoNW3NW3NW3NW3NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmS4SW6W3SW3CalmCalmNW3NW6NW4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, California
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Santa Cruz
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:24 AM PST     5.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:59 AM PST     1.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:40 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:20 PM PST     First Quarter
Wed -- 03:38 PM PST     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM PST     1.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.244.654.94.53.832.31.91.81.92.22.633.33.33.12.72.321.922.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM PST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:33 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:29 AM PST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:40 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:25 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:20 PM PST     First Quarter
Wed -- 03:06 PM PST     0.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:25 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:13 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:49 PM PST     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.50.50.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.