Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Cruz, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:20PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 12:39 AM PDT (07:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 905 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Tonight..W winds up to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 6 ft at 19 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft at 18 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 17 seconds. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 8 ft at 16 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 16 seconds. Showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds and sw 1 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 19 seconds and S 1 to 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft and S 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 11 ft and S around 1 ft.
PZZ500 905 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Southerly winds will develop prior to an approaching low pressure system and cold front moving in from the west on Tuesday. Winds will shift to west to northwest Wednesday. A long period westerly swell arrives tomorrow, increasing shoaling on bars and harbor entrances is anticipated.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Cruz, CA
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location: 36.97, -122.02     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 190555
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1055 pm pdt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis A marine layer has developed and stratus now covers
much of the coast. Low cloudiness will extend locally inland
around the bays overnight and then on Tuesday mid and high
cloudiness will spread in ahead of an approaching pacific weather
system. A cooling trend will begin, with showers expected by
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The pattern will then remain
progressive through the forecast period with intervals of
unsettled weather conditions.

Discussion As of 9:06 pm pdt Monday... No forecast updates
planned this evening. A summer like stratus layer has returned to
the immediate coast as onshore winds ahead of the approaching
trough have kicked in. Profiler data shows the inversion layer
around 1000 feet with airports from half moon bay down to monterey
bay reporting cloud heights from 500 to 700 feet. Elsewhere its a
pleasant spring evening with just some high clouds and temps
still in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday just expect continued increase in cloud cover ahead of
incoming upper trough and surface front. Outside of some local
coastal drizzle not expecting any precip until Tuesday evening.

Looking over the 00z NAM expect the best chance of showers from
03-06z Tuesday evening over the central coast and santa cruz
region. That band of showers should then rotate northward later
Tuesday night into weds as the main upper low wobbles off the
coast. Precip will be more showery intermittent vs any steady
rains. Models still paint the best chance for moderate rainfall
over the santa cruz mountains and santa lucia range on weds. As
the upper low finally pushes inland later weds night into Thursday
some residual showers will continue across the region along with
notably cooler temperatures. Rain total by Thursday in the
0.25-0.50 range for the valleys with 0.75-1.50 possible for the
santa cruz mtns and santa lucia ranges. As noted below with the
cold upper low and mid march Sun angle some isolated t-storms
cant be ruled out, especially on weds afternoon.

Friday looks dry at this time with next front due to arrive later
Friday night into early Saturday. Right now the ECMWF shows a
wetter solution while the GFS is drier. Higher confidence for
drier weather Sunday vs Saturday for those making weekend plans.

Long range still suggests another cold trough with possible rain
chances and below normal temps for Tuesday weds of next week.

Prev discussion As of 3:15 pm pdt Monday... Clear and
unseasonably mild temperatures prevail inland, but stratus has now
returned to just about all of our coast. Although far from a
classic case, there were embedded hints of a southerly stratus
surge, remarkable for this early in the season. And, as in the
more prototypical late spring and summer stratus surge events, its
arrival heralds the end of a period of offshore flow and warm
weather even near the beaches, and the return of the marine layer
and cooler onshore flow. Temperatures this afternoon are generally
running 3 to 5 degs warmer than on Sunday, aside from coastal
locations, especially those more exposed to the southwesterly
flow. The ASOS at watsonville airport, for example, reported a
temperature of 75 deg at 2 pm yesterday while just 65 deg 2 pm
today.

Forecast models remain in good agreement that a negatively tilted
upper level trough and associated showers will move in to the
district from the southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Timing of
the precip onset varies somewhat between the models, but a
consensus view has it spreading northward through the central sf
bay area Wednesday morning. Although not a particularly cold
system, the center of the upper low will pass inland in the
vicinity of our CWA with 500 mb temps down to around -25 deg c. In
conjunction with some Sun breaks and mid-march diurnal heating,
can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon. Chances presently appear largest in the far
southeastern portion of our district, and so have introduced in
the grids and forecast there. This might however need to be
expanded as the time frame approaches.

Shower chances look to diminish Wednesday night and Thursday, with
dry conditions returning districtwide Thursday night. But then the
next weather system is projected to rapidly approach, this time
from the northwest, with rain spreading southward through most
of our area Friday afternoon and evening.

Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble output continue unsettled weather
conditions through the remainder of the forecast period, and
actually potentially through much of the rest of the month, with
interspersed periods of wet and dry conditions and temperatures
near or a bit below seasonal norms.

Aviation As of 10:55 pm pdt Monday... It'sVFR except areas of
ifr-lifr in stratus fog along the coastline locally moving inland
on onshore breezes. A surface ridge is located along the coastline;
the smx-sfo pressure gradient is 1.5 mb and the sfo-sac pressure
gradient is 0.9 mb. Model forecast lower level cool air advection
near the 925 mb level has helped deepen the marine layer to 1,000
feet and up to 2,000 feet in spots, and an increase in water vapor
with higher dewpoint temperatures over chilly sea surface temps has
caused more stratus and fog to develop. Spotty drizzle may form
along the coast overnight, not presently in 06z tafs. Rapid
weather transitions (in this case stratus and fog) are difficult
to pin point, the inland extent of stratus and fog intrusion is a
lower confidence forecast for late tonight and Tuesday morning.

Ongoing cool air advection and drier air AOA 925 mb Tuesday should
mix out the stratus and fog fairly quickly in the morning. As an
upper level trough approaches the coast from the west later Tuesday
and Tuesday night conditions will beVFR-MVFR and light rain is
forecast to develop.

Vicinity of ksfo... Low confidenceVFR forecast holding through
Tuesday morning. Nw-w wind near 10 knots shifting to e-se early
to mid Tuesday morning. Cloud ceilings with the incoming upper
level trough gradually lower through the day with MVFR and light
rain arriving by early Tuesday evening.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Stratus and fog is a bit more extensive
and developed more rapidly than thought, made adjustments to tafs
to go ifr tonight into Tuesday morning. Ceilings lifting Tuesday
morning,VFR returns. MVFR with light rain developing Tuesday
evening.

Marine As of 9:55 pm pdt Monday... Southerly winds will develop
prior to an approaching low pressure system and cold front moving
in from the west on Tuesday. Winds will shift to west to northwest
Wednesday. A long period westerly swell arrives tomorrow, increasing
shoaling on bars and harbor entrances is anticipated.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt None.

Public forecast: rww
aviation marine: canepa
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46092 - MBM1 15 mi85 min SSW 5.8 52°F 56°F1015.6 hPa (+0.6)
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 18 mi114 min WNW 2.9 52°F 1016 hPa49°F
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 24 mi49 min E 5.8 G 7.8 52°F 56°F5 ft1014.2 hPa (-0.9)
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 24 mi39 min 56°F5 ft
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 25 mi39 min 58°F2 ft
MEYC1 26 mi63 min 59°F1015.3 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 38 mi39 min NNW 6 G 7 54°F 61°F1014.8 hPa (+0.3)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 44 mi39 min 55°F5 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA12 mi46 minN 08.00 miOvercast51°F50°F96%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW5NW5N5N4N3NW3CalmCalmCalmSW6SW7W8W12SW8W5S6SW5W3W5SW4CalmCalm
1 day agoNW4NW3N3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4Calm3CalmS5SW4SW4W5W4W3SE5CalmCalmCalmNW4
2 days agoNW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N4CalmSE7E54S3SW5W7W8W7W7W3CalmS3CalmNW3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, California
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Santa Cruz
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Tue -- 03:34 AM PDT     1.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:39 AM PDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:08 PM PDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:00 PM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.932.11.61.522.93.94.85.55.653.82.20.7-0.4-0.9-0.70.11.22.53.64.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
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Tue -- 02:31 AM PDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:37 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM PDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:41 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:47 PM PDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:29 PM PDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.30.10.40.70.80.60.3-0.2-0.6-1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.70.90.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.