Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:54PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:41 PM EST (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 119 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
This afternoon..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves building to 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..SE winds 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening.
ANZ600 119 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the coast later today. High pressure returns Wednesday, with another cold front crossing the region Wednesday night. Strong high pressure builds into the northeast and mid atlantic states Thursday into Thursday night. The high moves farther off to the northeast on Friday as the next system approaches from the southwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201933
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
233 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure builds across the area from the west
tonight into Wednesday, before another strong cold front passes
through the area later Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure
builds across the area for thanksgiving day into Friday. A low
pressure system then impacts the region Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 230 pm est Tuesday...

latest surface analysis shows that the cold front is currently
across the SE part of the forecast area. Radar imagery
indicates a few sprinkles across the middle peninsula and moving
into the chesapeake bay. These should quickly move offshore by
late this afternoon as the front moves offshore. Otherwise,
expect the clouds to clear out this evening as downslope flow
continues. Cold dry advection across the area as the high builds
in will allow temps to drop into the lower 30s west of i-95 and
the md eastern shore, and mid-upper 40s se.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
As of 230 pm est Tuesday...

quiet day on Wednesday with the high pressure in control. Actually
see some weak warm advection aloft ahead of the clipper system
currently over the northern plains. However, with the weak wedge in
place am still expecting temps to only be in the low to mid 50s. The
cold front associated with the clipper system and leading edge of
canadian air will pass across the area Wed night. Still looking at a
very cold thanksgiving and thanksgiving night with highs on Thursday
only in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south, which is below mos
guidance. No record temperatures are expected, but temperatures
are forecast to be up to 25 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Friday morning temps will be in the around 20 NW to
upper 20s SE as the high pres ridge is centered over the area.

Certainly could not rule out mid- upper teens NW of ric with the
expected very dry airmass. Even the beaches will likely see
temps at freezing by Friday morning. Slightly warmer on Friday,
under another day of sunshine, but still temps only in the 40s
with the cold ridge still in place across the region.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm est Tuesday...

no major changes to the extended forecast. Models still in good
agreement in widespread rain moving into the area ahead of the
system moving out of the SE states Saturday. Will continue with a
mixture of rain possible sleet far NW late Friday night as the
column may be cold enough initially for a brief period of frozen
precip at the onset well NW of ric. Otherwise, just moderate rain on
the day Saturday with up to an inch of rain possible. Doubtful this
could cause any new flooding issues though. The area quickly dries
out Saturday night then remains dry through Sunday night before a
complex low pres system over the great lakes impacts the region for
sun night into Monday bringing another chance for rain. We will
be on the warmer side of this system, but thunder is not
forecast right now due to the strong wedge remaining in place at
least at the onset.

Temps through the weekend into early next week will be warmer than
thu Friday, and closer to normal especially by Sunday Monday
with highs in the upper 50s lower 60s and upper 30s to 40s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 130 pm est Tuesday...

vfr conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will see
some cumulus this afternoon at around 4000 ft, but these should
quickly dissipate after sunset. Gusty NW winds this afternoon
may gust to 20 to 25kt especially at ric and sby.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through Fri with high pressure in
control. Next system may bring ifr conditions to all sites on
Saturday.

Marine
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

w SW winds of 10-15 kt prevail early this morning out ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. The front will move through
the area early this aftn, shifting winds to the nw. Cold advection
and pressure rises in the wake of the front are not overly
impressive, but should see winds increase to 15-20 kt over northern
sections later this aftn and probably another few kt by early
evening. Will continue with SCA headlines for the bay north of new
pt comfort and also added the coastal waters north of parramore
island for expected gusts to ~25 kt and seas building to around
5 ft at the outer edges of the 20 nm zone by this evening.

The winds and waves seas should subside diminish below sca
thresholds by early Wed morning as weak high pressure briefly builds
over the waters. A strong cold front is expected to cross the area
wed night, with strong sfc high pressure building south into the
region for thanksgiving day. The pressure gradient is not excessive,
but cold advection is impressive for this time of year with deep
mixing over the relatively warm waters likely. Thus, went a few kt
stronger than guidance and anticipate strong SCA conditions for much
of the area (probably enough that all zones may need headlines).

Seas build to 5-7 ft and bay waves to ~ 4 ft. Conditions briefly
improve for fri, then winds ramp up again with the next system
sat.

Hydrology
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

a river flood warning remains in effect for sebrell on the
nottoway, and an areal flood warning is in effect for the
mattaponi at beulahville. See flsakq or flwakq for more site-
specific information.

Climate
***record low maximum temps for nov 22***
ric... 36 (1929)
orf... 39 (2008)
sby... 36 (1989)
ecg... 41 (1972)
***record low temperatures for nov 23***
ric... 20 (2008)
orf... 23 (2008)
sby... 15 (2008)
ecg... 19 (1937)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Mrd
aviation... Mrd
marine... Lkb
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi41 min E 7 G 9.9 1014.8 hPa (+0.8)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi41 min NE 12 G 13 1014.1 hPa (+1.0)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi41 min 55°F1014.5 hPa (+1.0)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi41 min ENE 8.9 G 13 55°F 1014.1 hPa (+0.6)
44087 15 mi41 min 54°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi47 min NE 4.1 G 7 58°F 57°F1014.1 hPa
44072 18 mi41 min NE 12 G 14 53°F 55°F1 ft
44064 18 mi41 min NE 12 G 14 54°F 55°F1 ft1014.5 hPa (+0.7)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi41 min E 9.9 G 13 54°F 55°F1014.4 hPa (+0.9)
CHBV2 19 mi47 min NNE 12 G 13 54°F 1013.4 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi41 min ENE 13 G 15 53°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.9)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi41 min N 8 G 9.9 55°F 1012.8 hPa (+0.6)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi41 min N 6 G 8 55°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi71 min N 4.1 57°F 1015 hPa50°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi41 min 57°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi41 min N 12 G 16 54°F 53°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.8)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi41 min N 14 G 16 1015.5 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi1.7 hrsNE 89.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F46°F72%1014.4 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi1.8 hrsNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F48°F70%1014.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi47 minE 1010.00 miFair57°F46°F69%1014.4 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi50 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1014.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi1.8 hrsWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F44°F56%1012.9 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi71 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F45°F55%1014.2 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi46 minN 310.00 miOvercast59°F43°F57%1014.2 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi45 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F45°F67%1014.5 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi66 minN 610.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F46°F52%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S45S6S6SW6W6SW7S7SW7SW7SW8SW10SW8SW6SW5SW8W7W7W6NW8NE9NE8NE10
1 day agoNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S4S5S63S4
2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE10NE86NE6NE7NE7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
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Tue -- 12:36 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:16 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:12 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.61.11.82.42.832.82.31.71.10.60.30.40.81.422.52.72.62.21.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:45 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:37 AM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:21 PM EST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:59 PM EST     0.74 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-0.9-0.500.50.80.90.70.4-0-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.40.20.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.6-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.