Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Auberry, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 3:35 AM PDT (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 2:38AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auberry, CA
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location: 36.98, -119.52     debug


Area Discussion for - San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA
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Fxus66 khnx 222235
afdhnx
area forecast discussion
national weather service san joaquin valley - hanford ca
335 pm pdt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the region will move east today with a brief
ridge of high pressure over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This
weekend, another pacific low pressure system will move into the
region bringing additional cooling.

Discussion
Another day of unsettled conditions over the sierra nevada and
mojave desert as the associated upper low drifts pass las vegas.

While orographic lift is supporting widespread showers over the
mountains, a more northerly orientation of the flow aloft is
keeping much of the valley clear as the blow-off from today's
convection heads southeastward. In addition, with the marine layer
(as observed on the fort ord profiler) was reaching up around
3000 feet msl and spilling into the san joaquin valley – as
observed on visible satellite imagery. Furthermore, surface
observation from the higher elevations of the western side the
district were blowing in the 15 to 25 mph range as cool air
filters in the region. Therefore, the air-mass over the valley may
be too stable for significant afternoon convection. Yet, while
thunderstorms are not very likely over the san joaquin valley,
some clouds could still drift into the area with a possible
sprinkle over the east side of the valley before sunset tonight.

Afterward, upper low lifts toward the northern rockies and allows
a weak short-wave ridge to push in ahead of the next disturbance.

Models continue to show higher uncertainty levels with the next
disturbance, even at the 48 hour time frame, while still
indicating that a disturbance will form over the eastern pacific
at that time. Ensemble model uncertainty is more with the
amplitude of the disturbance than the phase(timing). Therefore,
with models showing good consensus of having the axis of the
disturbance about 525 miles west of the bay area by Wednesday
evening, the problem is more with how deep the disturbance will be
before shifting onshore by the end of the week. Models come into
better agreement by Thursday afternoon as the position of the low
may be about 300 miles due west of the bay area. At that point,
weak difluent flow aloft may support the sierra nevada's
orographic lift as showers continue over the higher terrain. By
Friday, enough lift may exist for possible valley convection north
of fresno county as the low moves closer to shore and vort max
energy moves into the region. With the gfs ECMWF canadian and
nogaps showing reduced uncertainty in their solution of the upper
lows position toward Friday night, will have higher confidence
levels have precipitation may occur over the region until the vort
max energy exits the region toward Saturday.

The bulk of the energy from disturbance passing through around the
end of the week will be east of the district by Saturday night. By
that time, will expect lingering showers over the sierra nevada as
wrap around moves vort lobes through the area until Monday
morning. While models show no significant surges of moisture into
the area, enough moisture should exist over the region to pop-up a
few light to moderate showers during each event. Afterward,
ridging returns to the region near the middle of next week. Again,
just like the first short-wave ridge in the short term, the second
will be short-lived as models continue to show a very uncertain
long term prognosis. With the amount of error in the long term,
will introduce the ridge and hold off on allowing the ridge to
exit the region until after day seven. In the meanwhile, will keep
temperatures and winds on a roller-coaster ride of warm or cool
and strong or light during the forecast period.

Aviation
A slight chance of possible thunderstorms with local MVFR ifr
conditions may occur over the higher elevations of the southern
sierra nevada until 03z Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions
will prevail across the central ca interior during the next 24
hours.

Air quality issues
None.

Certainty
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.

The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low... Medium... And high. Please visit


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fresno, Fresno Air Terminal, CA17 mi42 minNW 910.00 miFair61°F51°F70%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from FAT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N3CalmW3N33SE6Calm6W5W8SE4NW7W3N9NW7NW9NW7W8NW10NW9NW10NW11NW9
1 day agoNW8NW9NW7NW7NW8W9NW6W3W3NW4NW5W433NW5NW7NW6NW4W3W7NW5NW4CalmW4
2 days agoNW11NW9NW6NW8NW12NW126NW9W4W6W5W5NW10
G17
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G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Joaquin Valley, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.