Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:31PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 1000 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms early in the evening. Showers until early morning. A chance of showers late.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1000 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will push farther offshore today as high pressure builds in from the north. The high pushes offshore late Thursday into Thursday night. Low pressure and another cold front will approach from the west on Friday...then move across the area Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Creek, VA
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location: 36.98, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 291440
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1040 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
A cold front pushes farther offshore this morning. High
pressure builds across the northeast today, before it retreats
to the northeast on Thursday. A strong system is expected to
impact the region Friday and Friday night. Dry weather returns
for the weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
Sct to bkn sc/ac should thin out as the days progresses due to
drier air filtering in from the north. Expect a pt to mstly
aftn as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs 60-65f
near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland.

Previous discussion:
upper ridging pulls overhead tonight as upper trough lifts
across ks/ok late tonight. At the surface, high pressure nudges
south from eastern canada/new england tonight, with low level
flow becoming e-ne and increasing. Lows in the mid 30s to near
40 across far northern zones, low to mid 40s farther south... Mid
to upper 40s along far SE coastal zones. Sky begins mainly
clear, but expect some increasing mid to high clouds toward
morning.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/
Dry Thursday, with upper ridge in place overhead. However, waa
aloft atop the stable onshore flow will likely result in partly
to mostly cloudy sky Thursday and model bufr soundings continue
to suggest mostly cloudy to overcast conditions inland by 18z
thu (partly sunny eastern sections). Given weak/low mixing and
the increase in clouds, expect a much cooler day with highs
mainly ranging from the lower to mid 50s near the coast to the
upper 50s over interior eastern va/northeast nc.

Models coming into increasing agreement with handling of
previously mentioned upper low currently pushing slowly across
the southern high plains. 00z NAM has come into better agreement
with the gfs/ecmwf solutions, which all feature a strong closed
low lifting across the missouri valley, and taking on a
negative tilt as it lifts across in/oh by Friday morning. Good
model agreement exists with respect to onset of showers and
embedded t-storms late Thursday night/Friday morning from west
to east. Similarly good agreement with respect to potential for
widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy rain during
fri, which makes sense given the negative tilt, pw values in the
1.25-1.5" range (>150% of normal) and flow aloft parallel to
the encroaching frontal boundary. Quickly expand pops just
before sunrise west of i-95 before increasing to 80% to 90% all
areas during Fri morning.

Categorical pops continue Friday aftn as the upper low tracks
east across the mountains Friday afternoon and night. There
remains every indication that we'll have the chance for some
strong to locally severe storms once again during this time
frame. Given the trend towards the quicker solution, storms will
move out quicker and there will be less time for diurnal
destabilization, so it is certainly a conditional threat.

That said, strong 0-6km shear values, lifted indices of
<-4 deg c coincident with timing of best forcing onset Friday
aftn would at least argue favorably for continued mention of
thunder in grids, especially across the southern 2/3 of the
area. Lowered pops Friday night given quicker timing, with
clearing into Sat morning. As front crosses the area late
Friday. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Lows Sat morning in the low
to mid 50s, with some upper 40s across our far northern tier of
counties.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
Low pressure and associated surface cold front cross the area
Friday night then moves off the coast. Dry wx and high pressure
returns for Sat thru at least Mon morning. Yet another system
will bring the chc for showers back to the area late Mon thru
tue.

Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s sat, in the 60s to near 70
sun and mon, and in the 60s to lower 70s tue. Lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night and Sun night,
and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Mon night.

Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/
PredominateVFR conditions across area terminals, with only
localized visibility/ceiling restrictions in light n-ne flow.

This will result in some ceilings localized lifr/ifr CIGS for a
brief time early this morning in low stratus, with some
patchy fog in areas that picked up ~1" of rain late Tuesday.

Skies will scatter out and lift from north to south this morning
as high pressure slowly nudges into the region from the north.

Outlook: dry w/VFR conditions tonight through Thursday.

However, clouds will increase on Thursday as another front
approaches the region. Clouds then thicken and lower Thursday
night as the next low pressure system approaches the area w/some
patchy drizzle and ifr as early as Thursday evening. This
system should bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
area Friday/Friday night as it crosses the mid-atlantic region.

Marine
Winds have not increased as much as expected and are generally
10 kt across the bay and lower va coast. Have lowered wind
speeds for today some and may need to lower them even more with
the early afternoon to update. Generally expect N to NE winds
around 10 kt with slightly higher winds gusting to 15 kt from
wallops island north to ocean city.

Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front sliding off the carolina
coast with high pres over the great lakes region. The front
will push farther offshore today as the high builds north of the
region. Resulting north winds will increase this morning in
association with weak caa/pres rises. Conditions just sub-sca
tonight with NE flow of 10-15 ft over the bay/rivers/sound and
15-20 kt over coastal waters. Similar conditions into thu
morning with seas near 5 ft out 20 nm over the coastal waters.

Next cold front then approaches from the west fri, with marginal
sca s/se flow expected ahead of the front. This front crosses
the waters late Fri night/sat morning.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Mpr/mam
short term... Lkb/mam
long term... Tmg
aviation... Bmd/mam/jef
marine... Tmg/jao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 34 mi37 min N 5.8 G 9.7 60°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi97 min NNE 2.9 60°F 1020 hPa51°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi49 min ENE 4.1 G 8 58°F 1019.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi49 min ENE 9.9 G 12 55°F 52°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi32 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast64°F48°F58%1019.3 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi13 minN 510.00 miOvercast64°F52°F65%1018.9 hPa
Emporia, Emporia-Greensville Regional Airport, VA21 mi32 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast63°F51°F68%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW6S3CalmSW8W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4N5N5N4CalmNE5NE8NE8NE8N7
1 day agoSW12
G18
SW10SW9SW7S7S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS3SW6SW7
2 days agoCalmSW5S6S5SE5SE5E7E9E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S3S3S4S4S7SW10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Wed -- 12:28 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 PM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.723.13.63.63.22.51.81.10.60.1-0.10.21.12.33.13.43.22.61.91.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:56 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.41.52.53.23.63.63.22.51.60.80.2-0.2-0.10.81.92.633.232.41.50.80.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.