Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Creek, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday September 20, 2018 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 110 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 110 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds over the mid atlantic coast tonight into Thursday, and then slides offshore Friday. A cold front will cross the waters late in the weekend, before stalling over the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Creek, VA
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location: 36.98, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200624
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
224 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds over the mid atlantic region tonight
into Thursday, and then slides offshore Friday. A cold front will
approach front the north Saturday, and then settle over the region
Sunday.

Near term until 7 am this morning
As of 800 pm edt Wednesday...

* NWS surveys have determined that there have been 8 confirmed
tornadoes from yesterday. See pnsakq for details.

The current surface analysis shows low pressure well
offshore, and 1022mb high pressure centered N of the great lakes.

Still some showers over the piedmont but these are slowly
diminishing now W loss of daytime heating. A weak cold front
will push in from the N overnight as high pressure builds into
new england. Any showers associated with this front are expected
to remain N of the local area, but some low clouds are expected
to move over the md ERN shore toward morning. Some patchy fog is
expected in the piedmont, especially where the rain occurred.

Temperatures currently in the 70s are expected to drop into the
mid-upper 60s for most areas overnight, the exception being the
immediate coast in SE va NE nc where lows will be in the lower
70s.

Short term 7 am this morning through Saturday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure slides across new england Thursday and
the slides off the coast Thursday night. Mainly onshore flow behind
the front Thursday, partly to mostly sunny, and cooler over the ern
shore. Highs over the ERN shore are expected to be in the 70s, while
highs are still expected to be in the low mid 80s well inland. There
is some semblance of a warm front and weak shortwave trough passing
over the mountains Thursday night. Mostly clear E with lows in the
low 60s, partly cloudy W with lows in the mid 60s with a minimal chc
of a light shower.

The ridge of sfc high pressure moves to the south and east of the
area by Friday as a strong area of sfc low pressure moves into sern
canada. This will allow the wind to turn back to s. Forecast highs
Friday are in the mid 80s in most areas (with lower 80s on the
eastern shore) under a mostly sunny sky.

High pressure slides offshore Friday night, with a cold front
approaching from the N Saturday. Opting for a slower frontal passage
Saturday, which will result in warmer temperatures, and pops for
showers tstms 30-40% across the N during the aftn, and 20-30% across
the s. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the mid upper 60s,
followed by highs Saturday in the low mid 80s across the N and
mid upper 80s s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

an unsettled period next week as the models continue to show a
frontal system stalling across the mid atlantic region with several
impulses of energy progged to move along it. What is different today
than yesterday is that the data suggests the boundary sags south of
the local area Sunday through Tuesday resulting in a moist NE flow
and insitu-wedge scenario. Thus, thunder has been taken out of the
forecast for those periods. The boundary returns north as a warm
front tues and Wed allowing thunder chcs to return. Upshot will be
to keep chc pops each period under pt to mstly cldy skies for now.

Highs Sun Mon in the mid 70s NW to lwr 80s se. Highs tues Wed upr
70s to mid 80s. Lows in the 60s to near 70 se.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 200 am edt Wednesday...

low pressure is centered well off the mid-atlantic coast with high
pressure over eastern canada. Under mainly clear skies and light
winds due to the area of high pressure trying to ridge into the
region, patchy fog has developed from the piedmont to south-central
va. In addition, phf sby have reported some ifr lifr fog mist
during the past hour. Periods of ifr lifr visibility restrictions
due to fog will likely persist through 12z at phf, with the fog
persisting through at least 09z at sby. Elsewhere, fog should
largely stay away from the terminals for the remainder of the
night. Any remaining fog should burn off around or shortly
after 12z this morning. GOES ir satellite is showing a low cloud
deck just north and east of the lower eastern shore. This cloud
deck could possibly affect sby after after 08z tonight with
mainly bkn MVFR ceilings as it slowly moves to the sw. CIGS at
sby should then lift toVFR from by late morning or early aftn.

The onshore flow will bring enough low level moisture to allow
for bkn cloud cover at the other TAF sites from mid morning into
the mid aftn with a period of MVFR CIGS possible through
midday, generally lifting toVFR in the aftn. Winds will be ne
5-10 kt (up to 10-15 kt near the coast), shifting to the E by
the afternoon.

Outlook... High pressure slides offshore Thursday night into Friday,
skies will be mostly clear. A cold front approaches from the n
Saturday, with low pressure tracking along the boundary Saturday
night into Sunday bringing a chance of showers. High pressure builds
n of the region Sunday into Monday. Unsettled conditions are
expected Sun Mon with occasional flight restrictions possible.

Marine
As of 220 am edt Thursday...

sfc hi pres tracking slowly across new england through today
will result in NE to E winds generally 10-15 kt. Scas over the
ocean waters are for (marginal) seas of 4-5 ft. High pressure
moves offshore Thu night into Fri W the wind becoming SE then
s AOB 15kt... W seas subsiding to 3-4 ft by fri. Generally sw
winds 10-20kt Fri night into sat. A cold front crosses the
coast later Sat aftn into Sat night W the wind shifting to n
then ne. Onshore flow is expected to continue Sun into early
next week as the front stalls and sfc hi pres builds N of the
local waters.

Hydrology
As of 945 pm edt Wednesday...

cancelled the river flood warning for city locks. River flood
warnings continue for james river at richmond westham, the
appomattox river at mattoax, and the meherrin river at lawrenceville.

Water levels have crested and are now falling. At mattoax, the
level has dropped slightly below flood stage but is expected to
go back above flood stage Thu night Fri so will keep the warning
going. See flsakq for more site-specific details.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 220 am edt Thursday...

onshore flow will slowly push departures back up over the bay
and there is some potential for minor coastal flooding into the
eastern shore and the northern neck along the bay by the high
tide tonight early Fri morning.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652-654.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajz eri
long term... Mpr
aviation... Eri lkb
marine... Ajz alb
hydrology... Akq
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi60 min WSW 1 70°F 1018 hPa70°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi30 min Calm G 1.9 74°F 81°F1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi36 min NNE 1 G 1.9 75°F 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi51 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F94%1017.9 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA19 mi36 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1017.1 hPa
Emporia, Emporia-Greensville Regional Airport, VA21 mi73 minN 0 mi70°F69°F100%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3--NW5NW7N5N8N8N7N9--N9N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6S4S6SW5SW6S4SW5SW10SW5
G14
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SW6--NW8NW10NW8--W4W3W4W3NW4CalmNW4NW4
2 days agoSE3E5SE4SE4SE5SE7SE4SE6SE4S4SE5SE6S5S8SE5S5S4S5S5S5S5S4S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.