Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rushmere, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:24 AM EST (07:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:51AMMoonset 5:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 102 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy freezing fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less late.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt...becoming sw late in the evening, then becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely in the late morning and afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow early in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 102 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Arctic high pressure becomes centered over eastern canada and ridges southwest into the local area through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low pressure strengthening off the coast. Cold high pressure returns by Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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location: 37.06, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 160624
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
124 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will extend south into the region tonight.

A cold front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low
pressure moving northeast along the coast Wednesday afternoon
and night. A second surge of arctic air pushes across the area
Wednesday night and Thursday before temperatures moderate into
next weekend.

Near term through today
Latest wx analysis features strong sfc high pressure lifting ne
across atlantic canada, with the surface ridge still down into
interior portions of va nc. A sfc trough is still situated just
off the nc va coast and continues to keep low clouds in place
over eastern sections of the CWA this evening. Earlier snow
showers across the eastern shore have ended, with the main
challenge for the overnight forecast being with clouds and
potential for fog. In general, the model output showing
widespread vsbys less than 1sm over eastern and SE va appears
way overdone given all of the cloud cover that will be slow to
diminish (if at all). Have added some 3 to 5 sm vsbys E of i-95
later tonight but unless all of the low clouds scatter out,
dense fog looks unlikely even though winds will be rather light.

As for overnight lows, it will be much colder west of i-95 where
dew pts are significantly lower and skies stay mostly clear for
much of the night, expect lows 15-20 f over much of the
piedmont. Lows will avg 20-25 f across the i-95 corridor and a
few counties on east, with 25-30 f more likely near the coast
in clouds and a light NE flow.

Another weak low progged to lift north just off the coast tue
with a cold front approaching from the west. The local area
will be in btwn these features as weak high drifts toward the
carolina coast. Although weak, the return flow results in a
short lived warm-up across the region as temps rise into the
low- mid 40s.

Short term tonight through Thursday
Closed upper low over western great lakes will be the main
weather maker in the short term period. Emerging model agreement
with the 12z suite of models that the system will slide east, as
a progressive, positively tilted trough by Wednesday. This
system will eventually shunt a stalled frontal boundary east,
ramping up snow chances late Tue night and Wed as better
lift dynamics arrive into later Tue night.

Have trended toward blended 12z ECMWF nam solution with the fcst
package. This is a slightly slower solution, but maintains the
open wave aloft. In turn, this allows the development of the
sfc low slightly closer to the coast, albeit still offshore. It
also allows a stronger piece of the shortwave to push across
the local area into Wednesday aftn. Forecast confidence has
improved enough to nudge much of the CWA up into likely pop,
with the exception for the far NE zones. Overall, timing has
slowed slightly, but still on track for late Tue night across
the piedmont, towards sunrise Wed metro ric, and Wed morning
tidewater. Likely pops then continue Wed across the piedmont as
the upr lvl moisture tracks se. Will need to watch for
sharpening axis of f-gen oprh depicted by the high-res nam... As
it may portend to a period of moderate snow even into hampton
roads Wed aftn. Have accordingly bumped snow accums up there
slightly. Highs 30-35.

Pcpn exits off the coast Wed evening with decreasing clouds after
midnite. Cold as yet another shot of arctic air overspreads the
area so would think any snow or water from the storm freezes
solid. Lows 15-20 except lwr 20s sern coastal zones.

Qpf has nudged up slightly ~.10 east of the i95 corridor, .10
to .25 i-95 corridor and west. Expect varying slr's across the
fa as well ranging from arnd 10:1 across the SE to as much as
15:1 over the piedmont. This translates mainly to an advsry
level event with amts ranging from inch or less east of i95, 1-2
inches along the i95 corridor, 2 to 4 inches across the
piedmont (given the higher slrs). Will hold off on headlines for
one more cycle, as it appears models are starting to click into
agreement. Advisories will likely be needed for a good part of
the CWA given timing.

Behind the system, departing upper trough will usher in another
quick burst of arctic air for Wed night into Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night back down into the teens to around 20. Could see
some high single digits possible inland Wed night.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Pattern change looks to occur during the medium range period with a
significant warmup expected through the upcoming weekend early next
week. It will still be on the cold side Thu night with sfc high
pressure centered across the deep south, and one last upper trough
moving SE through the great lakes and off the new england coast fri
morning. Mostly clear skies will prevail over the local area with
lows mainly in the 20s though depending on remaining snow cover,
some upper teens will be possible across interior southern va.

Latest gfs ECMWF cmc depict the upper trough moving well off the new
england coast Fri with a broad upper level ridge building over the
eastern CONUS Fri aftn through the weekend. Expect continued dry
conditions with warming temperatures, highs in the upper 40s lower
50s fri, rising well into the 50s (possibly near 60f) sat, and into
the 60s (except at the immediate coast eastern shore) for sun. Lows
fri night Sat am in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and Sat night Sun am in
the 30s to around 40f. Some timing differences arise by sun
night mon, but overall expect increasing clouds ahead of the next
front Sun night and will carry a chc for showers Mon mon night. Mild
with lows in the 40s and highs Mon mainly in the 60s.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Wide variety of conditions tonight with primarily ifr to lifr
ceilings for the eastern half of the CWA and mainly clear
skiesVFR west of i-95. Fog has also formed mainly east of i-95
across the area of low ceilings, fog may be locally dense at
times. Conditions slowly improve during the day today with lower
ceilings expected to linger near the coast through the early
afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate once again Tuesday night
as a potent upper level trough brings thickening and lowering
clouds. Light winds will average 5 knots or less for the most
part which will tend to keep an onshore flow at the immediate
coast, but shifting to the S well inland.

Outlook: expect flight restrictions on Wed with snow showers as
clipper and associated cold front crosses the region. Clearing
wed night with breezy N winds near the coast. PredominateVFR
then likely Thu Fri as the trough ejects NE offshore.

Marine
Late this aftn, ~1048mb high pressure is centered over ern
canada, and was ridging to the ssw along the piedmont. Also,
weak low pressure was well off the mid atlc coast. This
combination was still resulting in a nne wind of 10-20 kt
acrs the waters, with a few gusts near 25 kt just off the NE nc
coastal waters. Seas were ranging fm near 4 ft nearshore, to as
high as 8 ft out around 20 nm. Scas are in effect until 7 pm
this evening for the mouth of the ches bay and currituck snd,
and until 15z Tue for seas for the coastal waters. The wind
should diminish by tue, as a weak surface ridge settles near
the coast. A surface cold front crosses the coast Tue night,
with strong CAA lagging behind until the upper trough arrives
wed evening into early thu. The wind is expected to become n
10-20 kt wed, and then NW 15-25 kt Wed night into early thu.

Sca conditions are likely for wind and seas. High pressure
settles over the area by Thu aftn and Thu night, and then
slides off the southeast coast fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz632>634-
636>638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Lkb mam
short term... Mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb lkb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi54 min N 2.9 G 2.9 31°F 35°F1030.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi54 min ENE 1 G 2.9 32°F 1031 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi54 min 37°F1030.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi54 min N 5.1 G 6 1030.6 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi54 min N 6 G 8 33°F 1030.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 6 31°F 1031.4 hPa
44072 24 mi44 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 32°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi54 min N 1 31°F 1032 hPa29°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 8 34°F 37°F1030.7 hPa
44064 31 mi44 min N 12 G 14 32°F 1030.7 hPa
CHBV2 31 mi54 min N 9.9 G 12 32°F 1029.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi54 min NW 11 G 13
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi54 min N 8.9 G 12 35°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi44 min N 5.8 G 5.8 31°F 1033.2 hPa
44096 46 mi63 min 39°F4 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi54 min NNW 12 G 13 1031.1 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi28 minN 02.25 miFog/Mist31°F29°F94%1030.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA11 mi30 minNNW 41.00 miFog/Mist31°F30°F96%1031.1 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA13 mi29 minN 05.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1031.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA17 mi28 minN 40.88 miFog/Mist32°F31°F99%1031.2 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA18 mi30 minN 32.00 miFog/Mist30°F28°F96%1031.4 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA22 mi85 minN 60.75 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%1031.1 hPa

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N9N9N7N8N6N5N4NW6NW7NW9NW9NW8N4NW6CalmN4N4N5CalmCalmCalmN4Calm
1 day agoN8
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N8N12
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N9N9N5N4NE5NE4N6NE3N3NE5N5N4N5N4N7N7
2 days agoSW8SW8SW7SW9SW5W7N8N13
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
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Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:54 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:12 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.3-0-0.200.51.21.82.32.42.31.91.40.80.3-0-0.10.20.71.31.821.9

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:37 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:09 AM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:24 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.90.3-0.1-0.10.20.71.52.22.72.92.82.31.70.90.3-0-00.30.91.522.32.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.