Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rushmere, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:53PM Thursday November 22, 2018 6:30 AM EST (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 348 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Through 7 am..N winds 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..N winds 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 348 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong cold front crosses the region this morning. Canadian high pressure builds in from the north thanksgiving day into Friday. A low pressure system then impacts the region on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rushmere, VA
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location: 37.06, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220854
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
354 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
A strong cold front will push across the area after midnight.

Cold canadian high pressure builds in from the north thanksgiving
day into Friday, bringing well below normal temperatures but dry
conditions to the area. Low pressure impacts the region Saturday
bringing the next chance for rain.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am est Thursday...

latest surface analysis reveals strong low pressure pulling
across the canadian maritimes this morning. The associated
surface low has pushed across labrador newfoundland, with the
attendant trailing arctic front dropping across the delmarva
toward the local area early this morning, as strong 1038+mb sfc
high pressure builds from ontario and the upper great lakes into
new england northeast CONUS today. Resultant strong cold dry
air advection behind the front will make for a blustery and cold
thanksgiving day across the region. Look for highs only in the
30s today over much of the area (some low 40s possible far
southern tier of counties from us-58 south into nc. Wind chills
will remain in the 20s and 30s through the day.

Record lows and record low maximum temperatures are included in
the climate section below. Temperatures at midnight to 1 am will
prevent any low maxs from being realized today, but expect temps
to remain quite chilly today in strong caa. Mainly clear today,
except for along coastal tidewater, where strong CAA advection
running south across the still- relatively warm bay waters will
result in a few bay streamer clouds per nam-dng and past few
successive runs of the hrrr.

A cold night ahead tonight. Winds should diminish this evening
as high builds to the north and gradient slackens. Expect
temperatures to then plummet into the 20s to low 30s after
sunset into the late evening hours. Have issued a freeze
warning for the small handful of counties that are still active
in the frost freeze program this late in the season, mainly for
coastal tidewater (incl. Orf va beach and NE nc along and east
of edenton), with only the coastal NRN obx not in the freeze
warning. Early morning lows in the upper teens to low 20s
inland... Upper 20s to mid 30s coastal NE nc.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 345 am est Thursday...

dry and a bit milder on Friday. Upper ridge will build over the
region Friday, but will quickly pivot offshore ahead of next
upper trough coming ashore across the ca coast this morning.

This should translate to a clear mostly sunny day Friday (some
increase in low mid clouds possible over the SE from the ocean
and the SW as warm advection aloft ensues). Still, despite
modest moderation, temps will remain chilly with highs only in
the 40s with the cold ridge still in place across the region and
limited mixing.

Previously referenced upper trough across the west coast slides
across the plains and mid-south Friday and Friday night, before
taking on a neg tilt and ejecting northeast across the northern
mid-atlantic into the northeast Saturday into Sat night.

Meanwhile, cool air wedge looks to develop as high pressure over
new england slides offshore, with cool dry air becoming pinned
against the eastern slopes of the central appalachians.

Gradually increasing isentropic lift will allow for light
precipitation to break out toward dawn Saturday morning in the
west, and shortly thereafter toward the coast. For the most
part, quick warming will prevent any significant p-type issues
for most even west of i-95, with temperatures mild enough for
no issues at all along the coast. However, as is typical with
these in- situ wedges, a brief period of sleet or even freezing
rain is possible well inland as the vertical column saturates.

Top-down powt tools indicate usual areas along west of highway
15 are most likely to experience this brief mixed pcpn, and as
with the previous event, minimal (if any) impacts are anticipated,
but will bear further watching. Rain will become moderate to
briefly heavy (especially inland) Saturday aftn, tapering to
light rain drizzle ending from west to east late Sat aftn night,
with the trailing cold front ending all pcpn late Sat night.

Highs Sat in the upper 40s to low 50s NW to mid to upper 60s se.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 345 am est Thursday...

local area will be in between systems Sunday, with brief
clearing expected across the area. Temps Sun Mon will be
slightly warmer than Thu Friday, and closer to normal with highs
in the upper 50s lower 60s and upper 30s to 40s. Next system
crosses the area on Monday, with another shot of cold air with
a cold front crossing the region later Mon Tuesday. This will
bring temperature back down below normal for the middle of next
week, but condition look to remain mostly dry with best
moisture forcing looking to remain off to our nw.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 1245 am est Thursday...

vfr conditions across area terminals this morning will prevail
through the 06z TAF period and beyond. Some scattered mid level
clouds possible briefly later this morning W bay streamers
(mainly orf, but a chance at sby phf as well), as a strong
cold frontal passage drops across the terminals early this
morning. Winds shift to the N NW overnight then become gusty
at times (15-25 kts) with onset of diurnal mixing after 14-15z
through early evening.

Outlook...

dry WVFR conditions tonight through Friday night. Next
system brings rain and flight restrictions Sat morning through
sat evening. Clearing out withVFR conditions returning for
sun.

Marine
As of 330 am est Thursday...

strong CAA expected today as a cold front pushes south of the local
area this morning. N winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30
kt most waters thru the day. As such, will leave SCA headlines in
place for all waters save the upper james, york and rappahannock
rivers where winds will remain 15kt or less. Waves 2-4 ft; seas 3-6
ft. N to NE winds diminish this evening and overnight so that scas
for the lower james river, the bay and currituck sound can come down
by or before 10 pm. Seas will gradually subside as well this evening
and overnight, but will be slowest to do so south of CAPE charles.

Therefore, have extended scas for the southern coastal waters thru
Friday morning as seas remain around 5 ft.

Winds veer to easterly at 10-15 knots on Friday as weakening high
pressure to our north moves eastward into the atlantic. Seas around
5 ft may linger along the northern obx. For Saturday, the next storm
system is expected to impact the waters by later in the day.

Southeasterly winds will increase through the day to 15-25 knots by
late afternoon evening with building seas waves. Another round of
scas appear likely for a large portion of the local waters, with
seas being slow to subside into Sunday.

More unsettled marine conditions appear possible early next week.

Climate
* record low maximum temps for nov 22:
* ric... 36 (1929) (temp of 38 at 06z)
* orf... 39 (2008) (temp of 44 at 06z)
* sby... 36 (1989) (temp of 38 at 06z)
* ecg... 41 (1972) (temp of 44 at 06z)
* record low temperatures for nov 23:
* ric... 20 (2008)
* orf... 23 (2008)
* sby... 15 (2008)
* ecg... 19 (1937)

Equipment
Kakq radar is down due to a pedestal error. Return to service is
unknown at this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
ncz015>017-031-032.

Va... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am est Friday for
vaz095-098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz632-
634-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz630-
631-633-638.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Lkb jao
aviation... Mam
marine... Jdm
hydrology...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi31 min N 8.9 G 13 39°F 53°F1027.2 hPa (+1.7)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 15 mi31 min ENE 1 G 2.9 40°F 1027.6 hPa (+1.6)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi31 min N 14 G 16 42°F 1026.7 hPa (+1.5)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 20 mi31 min 55°F1027.2 hPa (+1.5)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 21 mi31 min N 13 G 16 43°F 1026.9 hPa (+1.5)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi31 min N 17 G 19 42°F 1027.6 hPa (+1.8)
44072 24 mi31 min N 18 G 21 43°F 53°F4 ft
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi61 min NNW 2.9 39°F 1028 hPa30°F
44087 28 mi31 min 54°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi31 min N 8 G 11 42°F 55°F1026.9 hPa (+1.5)
CHBV2 31 mi31 min NNE 18 G 21 44°F 1025.9 hPa (+1.6)
44064 31 mi31 min NNE 18 G 23 44°F 54°F3 ft1026.6 hPa (+1.2)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi31 min N 20 G 23 44°F 1025 hPa (+1.5)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 37 mi31 min NNE 7 G 9.9 53°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi31 min NE 18 G 21 42°F 52°F2 ft1028.2 hPa (+2.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi31 min N 19 G 24 1028.1 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi95 minN 710.00 miFair39°F25°F57%1026.4 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA11 mi37 minN 310.00 miFair36°F26°F67%1027.5 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA13 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair36°F28°F75%1027.8 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA17 mi95 minN 910.00 miFair39°F26°F62%1027.1 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA18 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair31°F28°F89%1027.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA22 mi92 minN 13 G 2110.00 miFair42°F26°F53%1026.9 hPa

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3S6SW6W8W6W5W7W4W3CalmW3CalmCalmN6N5N8N9N6NE4N7N7N5
1 day agoS3SW6W4W3NW6NW7W8W4N3N5N6CalmN3N7N6CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3S3CalmS3S3S5--SW7S7SW5SW4SW6SW4SW4SW3S4S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Burwell Bay, James River, Virginia
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Burwell Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:17 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:40 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.2-00.10.51.322.7332.621.40.70.200.20.71.422.52.52.3

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:01 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:49 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.80.2-00.20.71.52.43.13.53.53.12.41.50.70.200.30.91.62.42.932.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.