Thursday, January18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:31PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:37 AM EST (05:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 7:06PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 180441
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
1141 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

A complex low pressure system just east of the region will
continue to move slowly northeast and away from the area
overnight. High pressure over the central and southern plains
will move into the gulf coast region by late Thursday bringing a
milder westerly flow across the region. Temperatures will
moderate over the weekend ahead of the next cold front
approaching the eastern united states on Monday.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 854 pm est Wednesday...

light snow persists over the far southeast this evening associated
with complex surface low pressure offshore and the residual upper
low that remains about overhead. However starting to see the snow fade
as drier air works in from the north so will let the winter storm
warning expire at 9 pm with deeper moisture exiting per the latest
hrrr. This to be replaced by an advisory for black ice across the
remainder of our north carolina counties and a sps elsewhere for the
overnight. Expect subsidence to finally win out across the east with
skies clearing after midnight while lingering low clouds over the
northwest likely persist under northwest flow but should gradually fade
as well late as the column dries. Moisture appears too shallow
for much added snow other than flurries far northwest so
basically going dry with clearing overnight. However the
clearing over expansive snow cover will allow temperatures to
fall more than expected with some spots likely at or below zero
espcly valleys despite continued mixing. Appears winds will stay
up enough to even support expanding the wind chill advisory east
to include roanoke and points along the eastern slopes where
thresholds are higher than the western zones. May be close to
wind chill warning criteria as well over the western higher
elevations but not enough coverage to upgrade at this point.

Otherwise bumped down lows a good category or two since already
near forecast lows in spots attm.

Previous discussion as of 318 pm est Wednesday...

winter weather advisories were posted for black ice in western
north carolina until noon on Thursday.

Winter weather warnings remain in effect for eastern portions
of forecast area until 9 pm.

Wind chills advisories are in effect for the western mountains
into Thursday morning.

The upper trough will drift east across the region this evening and
off the coast later tonight into Thursday morning. The associated
surface front will track east into the atlantic ocean. Good low
level moisture convergence and lift will continue bands of snow in
the east this afternoon into tonight. Snow will taper off this
evening into tonight from west to east. Used a blend of the hrrr,
conshort and NAM for pops and weather this afternoon into tonight.

Low temperatures will range from the single digits in the mountains
to the mid teens in the piedmont. Minimum temperatures tonight may
need to be lowered to account for the fresh snow cover. The
combination of winds and temperatures will produce low wind chills
values overnight into Thursday morning in the mountains. The melting
and freezing of snow will result in black ice across potion of
western north carolina. The rest of the state of north carolina may
need a black ice advisories also tonight into Thursday morning where
such advisories are issued.

The upper low will continue to travel east Thursday into
Thursday night. Very cold arctic high pressure across the
southern plains will build east Thursday into Thursday night.

Winds will diminish fairly quickly during the day Thursday as
high pressure builds in from the southwest. With the warming at
850mb and near full sunshine, high temperatures will vary from
the mid 20s in northwest greenbrier county to the lower 40s
along the southern blue ridge.

Under mostly clear skies with a snow pack, low temperatures Thursday
night will be cold with readings from the single digits in the
mountains to the lower 20s in the piedmont.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 318 pm est Wednesday...

high pressure will travel east across the southeast states Friday
into Friday night. This will result in a warming trend as flow
become southwest. 850mb temperatures will be in the 0c to +5c range.

With bright sunshine and west winds, high temperatures will
warm into the lower 409s in the west to the lower 50s in the
east. Low temperatures Friday night will generally be in the
lower 20s to near 30 degrees.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 235 pm est Wednesday...

little change this period with high pressure heading east late in
the weekend. An upper trough over the gulf coast states and return
flow may bring a few showers Sunday morning to the mountains of
wv far SW va.

We stay warmer than normal ahead of a deep trough closed low moving
across the central u.S. Monday which then sends a front across us
Tuesday with a threat of showers. Colder air behind it may bring a
few snow showers to the mountains of wv, but temps behind this
system are not as cold as the pattern we are in now.

Aviation 04z Thursday through Monday
As of 1140 pm est Wednesday...

flying conditions will slowly improve across eastern sections
overnight as the final band of light snow heads southeast over
the next couple of hours before exiting. In the wake of this
band, will see conditions quickly transition toVFR with only
scattered to broken strato- CU including areas of mid clouds.

Only exception will be across the far western ridges where sub-
vfr may linger around kblf and perhaps redevelop at klwb
overnight. However expect CIGS at both locations to gradually
mix out to scatteredVFR clouds toward daybreak Thursday as very
dry air advects in.

There may also be a brief period of upslope snow showers or
flurries across the southeast west virginia sites over the next
few hours before shallow moisture fades. Winds will also be
gusty in the mountains from the northwest with gusts of 20 to 30
knots. High pressure finally builds in late tonight.

High pressure will result inVFR conditions for all TAF sites on
Thursday. However west winds will remain rather strong across
the ridges with gusts to 20-25 knots possible.

Extended discussion...

dry air will and high pressure will cover the region Thursday
night through Sunday.VFR conditions are expected as well as
warming temperatures. Moisture will return to west Sunday night
into Monday with sub-vfr conditions possible ahead of another
cold front.VFR conditions should return on Tuesday.

As of 245 pm est Wednesday...

noaa weather radio, wxl60 (roanoke transmitter) which broadcasts at
162.475 mhz remains off the air. Telephone company will be working
on this and hope to have it back up by Thursday afternoon.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Thursday for vaz007-

Nc... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Thursday for ncz001-002-

Winter weather advisory until noon est Thursday for ncz001>006-

Wv... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Thursday for wvz042>044-

Synopsis... AMS jh kk
near term... Jh kk
short term... Kk wp
long term... Wp
aviation... AMS jh kk
equipment... Pm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi44 minNW 910.00 miFair15°F1°F53%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW33E6E7SE7E5E7E6E4CalmN4W8
2 days agoSE8S5S3CalmCalmNE3NE4CalmW4CalmCalm4E333SE6SE6SE5E7E3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.