Thursday, March30, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:42PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:31 PM EDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:01AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 302343
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
743 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

High pressure wedging south along the eastern slopes of the
appalachians will move offshore tonight. Low pressure will pass
to the northwest of the area tonight into Friday with a
trailing cold front crossing the region by Friday night. High
pressure follows this system with mainly dry weather expected
over the weekend.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
As of 640 pm edt Thursday...

the early evening forecast will reflect only minor adjustments
to the ongoing forecast. Based upon the latest radar trends and
surface observations, have adjusted the arrival of measurable
rainfall into the southern sections of the region by two to
three hours this evening, with corresponding adjustments into
the overnight hours as the coverage expands and becomes more
widespread across the region after midnight.

Have also tweaked the hourly temperature, dew point, and cloud
cover grids based upon the latest observations and expected
trends through the evening hours.

As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

a cool air wedge has brought low clouds to the region which based on
current metsat will likely be sticking around for awhile. Current
radar shows some very light returns along the lee side of the
blue ridge where drizzle has been reported over the course of
the day. Further, some more pronounced showers can be seen
moving into the region, associated with a warm front, primarily
along and just east of the mountains in western north carolina.

These showers are expected to continue to infiltrate the region
along the ridge line as the front moves in, eventually becoming
more widespread once the CWA is completely within the warm
sector. Temperature forecasts for little to no diurnal change
after sunset thus many locations may experience their low
temperatures for Friday at around midnight.

The low will begin moving northwest of the region during the
overnight hours. Widespread showers, some possibly moderate to
heavy, will be seen through at least the western half of the region
by 3-4 am this morning. QPF was not modified very drastically,
however did adjust time of heaviest rains to coordinate with
the uptick in the speed of the system. Highest amounts still
look to be along and just to the east of the blue ridge where
amounts in excess of an inch are possible. During the initial
phase of precipitation, an isolated rumble of thunder can not be
ruled out, but best chances look to be during the morning to
early afternoon hours when the highest instabilities are
present. Any chances for severe will be limited to the eastern
counties where the highest instabilities can look to ramp up
prior to the cold front moving through. After cold frontal
passage, conditions should look to improve as high pressure
takes over. Along the western slopes, some lingering low clouds
and light precip can continue to be expected under northwest
flow. An increasing pressure gradient ahead of the front should
stir up some faster southerly winds which will swing around to
the northwest post- frontal passage.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/
As of 245 pm edt Thursday...

an upper level low across WV at 00z Saturday (8 pm edt Friday)
quickly shifts off the coast before sunrise Saturday placing our
area in a deep northwest flow and pushing pushing shower and storms
along a cold front east of us, as suggested by most high-res models.

Forecast soundings suggest a prolonged period of upslope
clouds/showers with the low level saturated below 700-750 mb well
into Saturday. Strong pressure rises Friday night/early Saturday
along with 35-45 kt 850mb winds will help bring gusty winds across
the region, but forecast gusts keep values below advisory levels.

These winds will provide good mixing Friday night, keeping low temps
near the warmer guidance values.

Winds subside and upslope clouds decrease Saturday night and early
Sunday as a surface high builds into from the north. With these
conditions and drier air advecting into the region, bumped low
temperatures down a few degrees.

Axis of shortwave upper level ridge covers our region Sunday,
keeping dry weather in place, but high clouds and limited mixing
will keep high temps only a few degrees above average.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/
As of 230 pm edt Thursday...

an active period of weather is expected during the long term period
with two systems forecast to impact our area. The first is a fast
moving southern stream system that the medium range models show good
agreement with timing and strength. This system will likely bring
multiple waves of showers and even some storms with a leading
shortwave ejecting out late Sunday night/early Monday. In addition,
a broad area of upper diffluence covers the region late Sunday night
through Monday night. Meanwhile, in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, a strengthening south/southeast flow pushes pwat values
1-2 standard deviations above normal during this period per the
gefs. Several of the naefs and GEFS ensemble members forecast minor
flooding on some rivers with the additional qpf. Feel there are
enough signals to include limited potential for flooding Monday
night/Tuesday in the hazardous weather outlook.

Model difference expand with the second system late in the long term
period (Wednesday night/Thursday)with 12z GFS continuing a faster
trend with the approach of a high amplitude upper trof. The 00z
ecmwf is much slower with the 12z canadian starting to trend toward
the faster GFS solution. With individual GEFS ensemble member
showing a large range of solutions, confidence is low on the timing
with this system and leaned toward the canadian timing which keeps
temps slightly cooler Wednesday and keeps Wednesday dry.

Much colder temperatures are expected behind the system very late
and just beyond (Friday) this period.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
As of 730 pm edt Thursday...

ceilings are gradually lowering across the region from southwest
to northeast, with levels ranging from lifr to low endVFR. By
midnight, most areas will be in the ifr/MVFR range as widespread
rain, then rain showers overspread the region as a warm front
lifts across then north of the area. Visibilities will trend to
MVFR levels after midnight, and into much of the morning hours
on Friday. Lee side cold air damming will persist until the
early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Winds will
remain southeast through the night, then veer as the day
progresses in advance, and then more sharply in the wake of the
cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in the
west and far south very late tonight, but become more probable
during the day Friday with the approach and passage of the cold

Extended aviation discussion...

high pressure should bring improving conditions during Saturday
although appears sub-vfr CIGS along with a few residual showers
may linger at kblf/klwb into Saturday afternoon. Otherwise will
seeVFR return later Saturday through Sunday under diminishing
winds as high pressure slides across. Next similar low pressure
system to that seen at the end of this week will approach by
Monday with sub-vfr conditions likely returning Sunday night
into Monday as rain again transitions to showers and storms to
start the week.

Rnk watches/warnings/advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Ph
near term... Ds/jr
short term... Ph
long term... Ph
aviation... Ds/jh/jr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi38 minESE 410.00 miOvercast54°F44°F69%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6E8E10E12SE8SE12
1 day agoW4W8W5CalmNW4NW6NW8NW8NW5N5N6N5E5E7E5N34SE4NE43SE5SE7SE7SE8
2 days agoS4W4SE4E3SE3E4CalmCalmSW8N3CalmCalmSE3CalmW5SW3W9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.