Monday, May21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:28PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:04 AM EDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 211413
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
1013 am edt Mon may 21 2018

A southerly flow will continue to push warm and humid air into our
region early this week. The nearly stationary front to our north
will finally push south across our area mid to late week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Monday...

instabilities are increasing this morning and as the inversion
breaks, showers and a few thunderstorms will pop up over the
area by noon. Some showers have already started to form over the
northwest north carolina foothills. This afternoon numerous
showers are expected south of hwy 460, then will spread
northward late this afternoon into this evening. Pwats values
from this morning's soundings range from 1.00 to 1.40 inches.

Steering currents are also weak. Slow moving showers and
thunderstorms are expected and will have the capability to
produce heavy downpours. Due to the sporadic natures of where
the heavy rain will occur, no flash flood watches are expected
at this time. This may change this afternoon as we get a better
handle on where storms form, especially over areas that have
seen rain in the past 24-36 hours.

As of 245 am edt Monday...

high ground moisture from the rain the past 5 to 7 days allowing for
fog formation along valleys this morning, with only some cirrus at
times overhead. Will see patchy dense fog as well, but not expecting
enough coverage for an advisory.

Forecast centers around the next piece of upper energy that is over
southwest ga and florida panhandle this morning, and its northward
progress into our forecast area this afternoon, interacting with a
frontal boundary that will be stretching from illinois to the
shenandoah valley. The morning looks mainly dry with sunshine giving
way to increasing clouds in the south.

High-resolution convective allowing models start to initiate storms
over the higher terrain of the nc mountains and far southwest
virginia around noon, then show some concentration of activity
spreading northward into southeast WV and the new river valley by
mid afternoon, with a secondary area stretching east-west from the
nc triangle area to the triad foothills.

Storm motion will be weak around 10 kts or less, and with low level
winds from the northeast and winds around 850-700 from the west
southwest, we may see some anchoring training at times, with slow
propagation to the northeast. Given the nature of the pattern, with
not a widespread coverage of storms, will not issue any flash flood
watches at this time, but will have mention of flash flood threat in
the hwo. Appears best location of heavier downpours will across
southeast WV to the mountain empire of SW va, the another from the
southern blue ridge of va into the nc foothills east into southside
va NW nc piedmont where average amounts will be around one half
inch, but storms with downpours as pwats surge back toward 1.5
inches could put down 2 inches in an hour.

As far as severe threat, model soundings suggest very moist layer
with sbcapes around 1000 j kg this afternoon. Cannot rule out some
isolated wet microbursts but main threat is localized flash

Muggy with highs in the mid to upper 70s mountains, to lower 80s in
the piedmont foothills.

Tonight, the boundary of moisture convergence will shift northeast
from the greenbrier valley to southside va and weaken after
midnight, while warm front lifts northward toward pa to the
delmarva. Will keep some lingering showers late from the alleghanys
to the lynchburg appomattox area and points north. July like
temperatures continue for overnight lows, ranging from the lower 60s
west, to mid to upper 60s east.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 320 am edt Monday...

with plenty of low level moisture and light winds added patchy fog
to isc grids Tuesday morning. An upper ridge over bermuda will
continue to stretch westward into the southeast Tuesday. A southwest
flow will push warm unstable air into our region ahead of the cold
front to our west. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with locally heavy rains. High temperatures on
Tuesday will range from around 70 degrees in the mountains to the
lower 80s in the piedmont. Convection will diminish Tuesday evening
into Tuesday night with the loss of solar heating. Under mostly
cloudy conditions, low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper ridge will sink south into Wednesday, losing its influence
on the region. A weak front should move across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A weak upper level trough will draw gulf and
atlantic moisture northward into the area Wednesday. This tropical
moisture interacting with a frontal boundary will once again bring
numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours Wednesday.

Since the ground will remain wet and creeks, streams and rivers are
elevated, there is a chance for renewed flooding by the middle of
the week. High temperatures on Wednesday will feature readings from
the lower 70s in the west to the mid 80 in the east.

The cold front will move south into south carolinas Wednesday night.

High pressure will build southeast out of the ohio valley into our
region. Low temperatures Wednesday night will generally range from
the lower 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 320 am edt Monday...

high pressure will continue to wedge south on Thursday. This may be
a good day for some of us to get some yard work completed. With a
cool easterly wind, almost uniform temperatures are expected
Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

This wedge of high pressure should keep most of the area dry
Thursday night through Friday night. An upper level ridge over the
southeast states will expand northward on Friday. This ridge will
bring warmer temperatures into the region for the weekend. The
chances for thunderstorms return to our area on Saturday as a cold
front approaches the region. The better chance for widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday as the
front slowly crosses the area. Kept the good to likely pops created
by the forecast builder. It looks like for Tuesday, the better
opportunity for convection will be in the west. In general, the
unsettled weather will continue.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
As of 713 am edt Monday...

fog will lift at lwb bcb in the 12-14z time frame withVFR
through most of the daytime. Still looks like convection will
fire south of blf around 16z, then shift northeast thru
southeast WV into the new river valley by 20-21z, while another
area unzips between hlx mwk and rdu in the afternoon. Think all
sites will see a better than 50 percent chance of rain, but will
keep vcts in instead of tsra. Rain will be heavy at times and if
core of cell passes over the airport, vsbys CIGS are likely to
drop to ifr.

Winds will stay light east-southeast outside thunderstorms.

Storms will wind down this evening but showers could linger in
the lwb-lyh corridor through 05-7z.

Fog will form once again where it rains where higher confidence
in ifr or lower residing at lwb after 08z.

Extended aviation discussion
Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
with another round likely Wednesday. Conditions are expected to
improve later in the week.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Wp
near term... Rcs wp
short term... Kk
long term... Kk
aviation... AMS wp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi70 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F64°F71%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW66W6W6NW10W7NW6NW4CalmCalmN5W3N4N5N5CalmN3N33SW3CalmCalm4
1 day agoSE3CalmSE5E10SE12SE15SE9SE7SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW6NW4NW6W5W6W5W7W6
2 days agoE3N5E4SE5NE3CalmE9E5NE5E6S4E5E6E3SE4SE4SE5SE5CalmCalmE6SE3CalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.