Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA
May 8, 2024 7:30 AM EDT (11:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 5:20 AM Moonset 8:20 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 081025 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 625 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Thursday. Some storms could be severe. Drier and slightly cooler weather arrives for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight.
2) Heavy rainfall from storms could result in localized flooding.
Upstream convection over the Ohio Valley this morning formed along a warm front and is now primarily outflow driven as it advances southward. Will continue to see this line of storms move south into southeast West Virginia by daybreak, but in a much more weakened state than what is occuring now. Still may have some rumbles of thunder associated with it, along with a few gusts as it moves through. Not likely that it makes it past the southeast West Virginia mountains.
There is some uncertainty among CAMs with the progression of the upstream convection and where it lays down a residual outflow boundary. Wherever this boundary ends up, it will likely be the focus for renewed convection this afternoon/evening. At the moment, looks to get to around the VA/NC border by early afternoon. The other caveat in the forecast today will be residual cloud cover from the decaying storms to the northwest.
Depending on how long cloud cover remains in place will determine the degree of destabilization that occurs. If skies are mostly sunny through most of the day, can definitely increase confidence on severe storm potential this afternoon/evening.
A potentially second round of storms may impact the area late evening/overnight from convection that develops over Kentucky late this evening, which will be more associated with a surface low moving through the Ohio Valley tonight. Any storms that develop today/tonight will especially have the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a low risk potential for tornadoes as well.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1. Showers and storms in the afternoons.
2. Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday.
A surface wave and low pressure system will move through the OH Valley on Thursday, draping a front through the Mid-Atlantic.
Breaks in cloud cover will assist in destabilization of the atmosphere towards Thursday afternoon. There is potential for severe thunderstorms to create damaging winds and large hail Thursday, especially in the NC Piedmont where the higher instability is expected.
An upper level shortwave on Friday will have its potential limited by reduced moisture availability in the wake of Thursday's frontal passage. There will still be scattered showers and storms, though the severe risk is much lower.
Temperatures will be a in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday, cooling to the 60s and low 70s Friday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Daily chances for showers - Cooler at the end of the week
At upper levels flow becomes more west to northwest as a long wave through develops over the northeast United States on Saturday. A short wave coming through the northwest flow will bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains.
Maximum temperatures through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The coldest overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the typically favored locations may cool into the 30s.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday...
A line of storms over West Virginia this morning will continue to progress south. Will see some increased cloud cover from these, along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm and some gusty winds from through perhaps 13z for LWB/BLF.
Gradually clearing through the day and thunderstorms may redevelop again late this evening and overnight. Periods of IFR/LIFR. Winds generally SSW today.
Some fog development is possible again across the region tonight.
Forecast confidence is average.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 625 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Thursday. Some storms could be severe. Drier and slightly cooler weather arrives for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight.
2) Heavy rainfall from storms could result in localized flooding.
Upstream convection over the Ohio Valley this morning formed along a warm front and is now primarily outflow driven as it advances southward. Will continue to see this line of storms move south into southeast West Virginia by daybreak, but in a much more weakened state than what is occuring now. Still may have some rumbles of thunder associated with it, along with a few gusts as it moves through. Not likely that it makes it past the southeast West Virginia mountains.
There is some uncertainty among CAMs with the progression of the upstream convection and where it lays down a residual outflow boundary. Wherever this boundary ends up, it will likely be the focus for renewed convection this afternoon/evening. At the moment, looks to get to around the VA/NC border by early afternoon. The other caveat in the forecast today will be residual cloud cover from the decaying storms to the northwest.
Depending on how long cloud cover remains in place will determine the degree of destabilization that occurs. If skies are mostly sunny through most of the day, can definitely increase confidence on severe storm potential this afternoon/evening.
A potentially second round of storms may impact the area late evening/overnight from convection that develops over Kentucky late this evening, which will be more associated with a surface low moving through the Ohio Valley tonight. Any storms that develop today/tonight will especially have the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a low risk potential for tornadoes as well.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1. Showers and storms in the afternoons.
2. Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday.
A surface wave and low pressure system will move through the OH Valley on Thursday, draping a front through the Mid-Atlantic.
Breaks in cloud cover will assist in destabilization of the atmosphere towards Thursday afternoon. There is potential for severe thunderstorms to create damaging winds and large hail Thursday, especially in the NC Piedmont where the higher instability is expected.
An upper level shortwave on Friday will have its potential limited by reduced moisture availability in the wake of Thursday's frontal passage. There will still be scattered showers and storms, though the severe risk is much lower.
Temperatures will be a in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday, cooling to the 60s and low 70s Friday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Daily chances for showers - Cooler at the end of the week
At upper levels flow becomes more west to northwest as a long wave through develops over the northeast United States on Saturday. A short wave coming through the northwest flow will bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains.
Maximum temperatures through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The coldest overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the typically favored locations may cool into the 30s.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday...
A line of storms over West Virginia this morning will continue to progress south. Will see some increased cloud cover from these, along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm and some gusty winds from through perhaps 13z for LWB/BLF.
Gradually clearing through the day and thunderstorms may redevelop again late this evening and overnight. Periods of IFR/LIFR. Winds generally SSW today.
Some fog development is possible again across the region tonight.
Forecast confidence is average.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Blacksburg, VA,
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