Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday May 25, 2017 4:07 PM EDT (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:10AMMoonset 7:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 251855
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
255 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
A broad area of low pressure extended from ohio to the delmarva
peninsula. High pressure will make a brief visit to our region on
Friday. Wet weather returns to the area over the weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls overhead, and a series of disturbances moves
along it.

Near term through Friday
As of 230 pm edt Thursday...

an upper low was positioned near the mason-dixon line. Flow on the
backside of this low is progged to increase to around 40kts this
evening, and continue as such through the overnight hours. A wind
advisory will remain in effect for areas near and west of the crest
of blue ridge. While official wind advisory wind level speeds
and gusts are not anticipated, the impact of increasing gusty
winds and saturated soils will allow for trees to be blown down
more easily.

Central and eastern sections of the region have had a decent amount
of sunshine this afternoon. We expect showers and storms to develop
this afternoon and continue into the evening hours, supported by
steep lapse rates aloft associated with the cold pool of the upper
low. The relatively low freezing level will allow for just about
any thunderstorm to have the potential for small hail, as well
as, the stronger rain showers.

By late this evening, flow across the entire region will be from the
northwest, and subsidence will begin to win across eastern parts of
the area. Look for precipitation to end, and for there to be a trend
in clearing skies after midnight. In the west, the northwest flow
will help maintain upslope clouds and scattered rain showers. These
showers will continue through the night and into the morning hours
on Friday. Coverage will decrease during the day Friday as low level
winds start to slow and back. Clouds will also be on the decrease.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side overnight. Expect
low temperatures tonight across the mountains to range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Across the piedmont, low to mid 50s are
forecast.

On Friday, sunshine in the east, and sunshine in the west by the
afternoon, will help yield high temperatures close to ten degrees
warmer than those realized today. Expect the low to mid 70s across
the mountains with upper 70s to around 80 across the piedmont.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
As of 1100 am edt Thursday...

Friday night through the weekend, an upper level shortwave ridge
will be positioned across the tennessee valley. A closed upper low
will slowly progress from south central canada towards the great
lakes region. During this period, anticipate central u.S. Shortwave
troughs to be funneled eastward between the flow of these two
features into the ohio valley, all the while the tennessee ridge
slowly erodes. This will allow for increasing coverage of shower
activity by the end of the weekend, especially by Sunday into Sunday
night with the approach of a cold front.

Temperatures Friday into Sunday will be near normal, with
temperatures about five degrees above normal by Sunday.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 1030 am edt Thursday...

during the period of Monday through Wednesday, an upper level low
will gradually progress eastward through the great lakes region and
into southeast canada. A couple of associated cold fronts are
expected to spiral ahead of this system and progress into the
eastern part of the u.S. Model timing of these front places one
moving through on Monday, and then the second on Wednesday, with the
first of the two the most potent for our region. This scenario
offers scattered showers in the forecast both of these days, with
some isolated thunderstorms more probable on Monday as compared to
Wednesday. Tuesday may not be completely precipitation free,
but very limited on cover and due more to differential heating.

On Thursday, guidance differs on the extent precipitation will be
possible for the area, and much will be determined based upon how
far the front on Wednesday exits the region, and to what extent a
southern stream shortwave trough rides northeast along this front
into, or near the area. Our forecast will reflect a model blend
consensus of solutions, with better chances of showers on Thursday
than not.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be a little
over five degrees above normal on Monday, but trend to near normal
conditions on Thursday.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 140 pm edt Thursday...

upper low was making progress eastward across northern virginia.

Associated cold pool lapse rates and daytime heating will lead
to convection this afternoon, mainly in areas along and east of
the crest of the blue ridge. Broad area of ifr MVFR cloud cover
over ky WV will advance into the region from the west, and
impact areas in the west late this afternoon through the
overnight hours. Visibilities will mainly beVFR, but pockets of
MVFR visibilities are possible across the mountains.

Low level winds will become northwest by this evening and allow
for subsidence clearing in areas east of the blue ridge. Wind
gusts across the higher elevations will be in the neighborhood
of 25 to 35 kts. These prevailing winds allow for a continuation
of upslope rain showers in the west, and these will continue
into the day Friday. However, coverage during the day Friday
will be on the decline.

Extended aviation discussion...

vfr conditions are expected on Friday as a shortwave ridge
builds into the region.

We will transition back into a wet pattern over the weekend as a
frontal boundary enters and stalls over the area. A series of
disturbances will bring showers and storms to the area.

Anticipate at least some pockets of sub-vfr conditions.

The coverage of showers and storms decrease early next week, but
remain at least scattered in coverage.

Hydrology
As of 100 pm edt Thursday...

small streams and creeks have been receding and most are below flood
stage. We are in a river flooding scenario for portions of the
roanoke and dan river basins. The new river and greenbrier river are
expect to stay below flood stage.

The upper level system moving in from the west will bring scattered
to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Overall rainfall
amounts on average will be under a quarter to half inch, in this
scenario. Will have to watch for any training or heavier downpours,
as it will not take much to cause flooding again given the saturated
grounds and swollen creeks and rivers.

Currently, we are not expecting enough for a flood flash flood watch
and activity should diminish weaken after sunset.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to noon edt Friday for
vaz007-010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035.

Wind advisory until noon edt Friday for vaz009-015.

Nc... Wind advisory until noon edt Friday for ncz001-002-018.

Wv... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to noon edt Friday for
wvz042>044-507-508.

Synopsis... Ds
near term... Ds
short term... Ds
long term... Ds
aviation... Ds
hydrology... Wp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi73 minW 1010.00 miOvercast67°F51°F57%1000 hPa

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3Calm43E6SE9W11E3NW4NE6CalmW6CalmCalmS5W12
G18
W12W9SW8W10W11W10W10
1 day agoNE6N5NE7NE7CalmNE6NE7NE7NE3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmSE5E7E6SE9SE7SE6SE11E9SE43
2 days agoNW10W7W4NW3N7N6N6CalmE5NE4W3NW3Calm3NE7NE7N5N7CalmN5NE4CalmSE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.