Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:30PM Friday May 24, 2019 4:59 AM EDT (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:03AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 240852
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
452 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front that extended across pennsylvania and ohio this morning
will track south into virginia today before stalling tonight
and retreating back toward the coast as a warm from on Saturday.

Little change in the weather pattern is expected through
Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am edt Friday...

axis of upper ridge will extended across the ohio and tennessee
valleys today and tonight resulting in northwest 500mb flow over the
mid atlantic region.

Nam GFS and to a lesser extent the rap were showing and axis of
deeper moisture from smyth tazewell counties back into western ohio
this afternoon. This would be the most likely location for
thunderstorm development with the axis then gradually shifting east
by this evening.

A surface cold front will move through eastern virginia today then
will push west and stall over the mountains tonight. High pressure
moves from lake michigan to new jersey behind this front by Saturday
morning. Convergence along and west of the front in the unstable air
mass will also be favorable for thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening. The NAM was showing isolated thunderstorms
this evening across southside. This would be after 6pm when
downslope winds become lighter and there is less heating. Will
extended eastern edge of the probability of precipitation farther
east for today and tonight.

Will be staying with the warmer guidance today in all but the
greenbrier valley. Tonight lows will again be mild on the west side
of the backdoor front.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 333 am edt Friday...

a weak surface high will slide off the DELMARVA coast Saturday
morning. The western flank of this ridge will remain wedged across
the foothills through the morning and the piedmont into early
afternoon. As this wedges erodes, a theta-e ridge will engulf the
area helping to increase the chance for pop-up afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms over the mountains. These storms may drift
east over the foothills during the evening hours. Forecast soundings
showing a cap around 6-8 kft, so storms should be non-threatening
and short-lived. The upper level ridge remains over the gulf states
Saturday, but becomes flat over the upper midwest to the ohio
valley. One disturbance tracking on the outer rings of the ridge
will stay well north of the area Saturday afternoon and night.

Therefore, showers and thunderstorms that survive into the evening
will fade with lose of heating by midnight.

Having the wedge around should only affect the rate of temperatures
warming through the morning east of the blue ridge. By days end, the
wedge will be gone and southerly flow increases. Temperatures east
of the blue ridge should peak in the mid to upper 80s. Across the
mountains, spotty showers may affect maximum temperatures, but in
general, low to mid 80s are likely.

Similar synoptic pattern for Sunday with the upper level ridge
perched over the gulf states, remaining flat across the midwest and
the ohio valley. Another disturbance will track on the outer rings
of the ridge and over the ohio valley late Sunday. This system is
expected to track farther south than the one on Saturday, bringing a
chance for strong to severe storms to the area, mainly north of i-64
Sunday night.

Since showers and thunderstorms do not appear across the area until
Sunday evening, abundant sunshine and compressional heating will
produce temperatures around 15f warmer than normal. High
temperatures Sunday will range from the low to mid 80s across the
mountains to low to mid 90s east of the blue ridge.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 259 pm edt Thursday...

the axis of the upper ridge will be to our east by Wednesday, then
flatten considerably as the pattern becomes essentially zonal by the
end of the week. Expect the depth of the warm air under the ridge to
help suppress convection with generally isolated widely scattered
thunderstorms mainly in the mountains on Monday and Tuesday, though
will have to watch the lingering frontal boundary on Monday. Then by
midweek, the progressive zonal pattern will bring an increasing chance
for showers thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that will move through
on Thursday.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for most of next week with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions. Highs will generally be in the low mid
90s east of the blue ridge with 80s to the west. Lows will be quite
balmy with readings generally in the mid upper 60s, a bit cooler in the
valleys west of the ridge.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
As of 150 am edt Friday...

cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms in southeast west
virginia and the alleghany highlands will continue to weaken.

Spc-hrrr has this precipitation dissipated by 10z 6am. A cold
front across pennsylvania and southern ohio will move south
today bringing the surface and low level winds more around to
the northwest.

Expect enough upslope in the mountains this morning for MVFR
clouds on the western slopes of the central appalachians,
including at kblf and possibly klwb. OtherwiseVFR conditions
are expected across southwest virginia and northwest north
carolina today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop along the front in the afternoon and
evening with associated MVFR conditions, but the downslope
northwest wind east of the blue ridge will keep areal coverage
isolated. Too low a probability at this point to include in the
area tafs at this time. Northwest wind will gust to 20-30 kts,
especially in mountain locations this afternoon.

Confidence is above average for ceilings, visibility and wind,
and average for areal coverage of thunderstorms.

Extended aviation discussion...

overallVFR conditions are expected across the region into
early next week as high pressure offshore maintains a hot humid
airmass across the region. Exception is with evening overnight
fog but confidence low on development attm. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms resulting in brief sub-VFR conditions are
also possible mainly later Saturday in the west, and early next
week across most of the mountains, but more isolated coverage
for Monday into Tuesday.

Climate
As of 450 am edt Friday...

high temperatures will be close to records at few climate site
today through Sunday. The * shows records that may be tied or
broken based on the current forecast.

May 24th record highs:
bluefield - 89 in 1939
danville - 97 in 1927
lynchburg - 93 in 1903
roanoke - 92 in 1933
blacksburg - 84 in 1994 *
may 25th record highs:
bluefield - 87 in 1953
danville - 96 in 1933
lynchburg - 93 in 1936
roanoke - 94 in 1953
blacksburg - 89 in 1953
may 26th record highs:
bluefield - 88 in 1955
danville - 98 in 1965
lynchburg - 95 in 1936
roanoke - 95 in 1941
blacksburg - 85 in 2010 *

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Ams
near term... Ams
short term... Rcs
long term... mbs
aviation... AMS jh
climate... Ams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi65 minWNW 710.00 miFair77°F61°F58%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmS4Calm6W10SW12SW10
G15
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G19
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G16
W7W5SW3W3W6W6W9W7W6W7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6E5S8S7SE7SE10SE9
G14
S8SE12S12S8S9S6S6S5S6S5CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3W3NW5NW7NW4NW113NW84W5344NW4SE7SE3E4E3SE4S9S4SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.