Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Shore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:05PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:19 PM EST (17:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:30PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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location: 37.06, -79.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 201215
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
715 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A weather disturbance was moving northeast across the region
this morning bringing snow, sleet, and freezing rain drizzle to
the region. This system will move north of the area by
afternoon. High pressure across the northeast will gradually
weaken allowing the cold air mass across the region today to
modify and rise above freezing by tonight. Meanwhile, a series
of upper-level disturbances will track eastward across the u.S.

Over the next several days bringing several bouts of rain to the
area into the weekend. Temperatures will rise to above normal
levels and persist at above normal levels into the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 445 am est Wednesday...

a mid-level warm front was lifting north through the area this
morning. With a cold wedge and initial dry air mass in place,
several inches of snow fell along and north of u.S. 460 in the
hours around midnight, then transitioned to sleet and freezing
rain as warm air aloft worked its way northeast into the region.

Snowfall amounts so far have been mostly in the 2-4 inch range
along and north of u.S. 460, with amounts considerably less
further south where precipitation quickly changed to sleet and
freezing rain at the onset, limiting amounts of snow sleet to 1
inch or less. We have not yet been able to obtain in significant
icing reports, but going forward nearly all precipitation will
be in the form of freezing rain or freezing drizzle as the warm
nose aloft continues to expand.

Have made some minor changes to the previous configuration of
the winter storm warning and winter weather advisory to reflect
the current pattern better and expected warming of southern
areas through the day. With temperatures already at or just
above freezing in some southern locations (e.G., kdan) cannot
see them cooling substantially below or remaining below freezing
much longer throughout the day. As a result, have opted to end
that portion of the advisory at noon in agreement with rah gsp.

The warning for watauga and ashe has been moved back to end at
noon as well since temperatures are expected to be above
freezing there as well by late morning early afternoon. Moved
wilkes and surry into the adjacent advisory, which will end at
noon as previously noted.

Temperatures will slowly rise in all areas above freezing by
00z, with the southern shenandoah valley being the lone hold out
on the cold air. It may be evening before the temperatures rise
above 32 in places like lexington and up toward the augusta
county line.

Confidence in forecast parameters
temperatures - moderate,
precipitation probabilities - moderate
winds - moderate,
additional winter precipitation threat - moderate.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
As of 421 am est Wednesday...

a cold front in the mountains Thursday morning will move southeast
into Thursday evening. The highest pops will be across southern
portions of the forecast area Thursday morning. High temperatures
Thursday will range from the lower 40s in the northwest mountains of
greenbrier county in west virginia to the mid 50s in the piedmont.

High pressure will build in Thursday night as the front slides
farther south into south carolina. However, the dry weather will be
brief as a disturbance over the southern mississippi valley advects
moisture over the high pressure surface wedge. Low temperatures
Thursday night will vary from around 30 degrees in the mountain to
the lower 40s in the piedmont.

Isentropic lift increases over the area Friday into Friday night
producing periods of rain. This is supported by model sounding
profiles, but some cold air is just to our north. If models trend
colder, the greenbrier valley to the southern shenandoah valley
could see a light winter mix as temperatures wet-bulb down below
freezing through the event. High temperatures Friday will generally
range from around 40 degrees in the upper 40s in the east. Low
temperatures Friday night will be from the mid 30s in the north to
the lower 40s in the south.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
As of 421 am est Wednesday...

an upper level trough will swing out of the rockies and over the
central plains on Saturday. A surface low will move quickly into the
ohio valley by Saturday evening. Pressure falls over the ohio valley
will mark the beginning of end for this weekend's wedge. Until the
wedge and moisture are pushed out of the region by a cold front
Sunday morning, rain will continue to fall over the area Saturday
into Saturday night. Storm total rainfall could be on the order of 1
to 2 inches for this weekend's event. With very little drying
between Wednesday's and this weekend's event, flooding of creeks,
streams and rivers are again possible. We will know more once we get
this first system out of the way.

Cold high pressure will allow the area to dry out Sunday through
Tuesday. Our next chance for precipitation is expected next Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal Saturday, then
near normal for the first part of next week.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 715 am est Wednesday...

latest observations indicate widespread ifr conditions due to
low ceilings, as well as pockets of freezing rain and sleet
passing across the region, in some cases reducing visibilities
to the 1sm to 3sm range.

Heaviest precipitation has exited the area, and expect only
light, on-and-off precipitation to pass across the region
through the remainder of the day. As such, do not expect much
additional accumulation of snow or icing. Cool air riding on
east to northeast winds will strictly limit heating today, and
despite surface temperature currently at or just below
freezing, it may not be until late afternoon or evening where
temperatures rise above freezing, allowing precipitation to fall
as liquid. Regardless, ifr to low-end MVFR ceilings visibilities
will remain locked in through nearly the entire TAF period.

After midnight Thursday, winds will gradually shift
southwesterly as a warm from lifts northward from the carolinas,
allowing warm air aloft to finally reach down to the surface.

As such, expect a warming trend from midnight through dawn. The
warm front will be followed closely by a trailing cold front
that will enter from the west toward daybreak Thursday, shifting
winds from the west-northwest. It is this downslope flow that
will result in rapidly improving ceilings visibilities beginning
just after 12z Thursday.

Confidence in the aviation forecast is above average.

Extended aviation discussion...

a frontal boundary will meander around the region into the start
of the weekend, along with several areas of low pressure moving
along this boundary. This will keep the potential for
rain and sub-vfr conditions across the area through Sunday.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for vaz014-
017-018-022-032-033.

Winter storm warning until midnight est tonight for vaz019-020-
023-024-034-035-045>047.

Winter storm warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz010>013-016.

Winter storm warning until noon est today for vaz015.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for vaz043-044-
058-059.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
vaz007-009.

Nc... Winter storm warning until noon est today for ncz001-002-018.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for ncz003>006-
019-020.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for wvz044.

Winter storm warning until midnight est tonight for wvz507-508.

Winter storm warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for wvz042-
043.

Synopsis... Rab
near term... Rab
short term... Kk
long term... Kk rcs
aviation... Jh nf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA27 mi25 minN 01.50 miLight Freezing Drizzle Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1029.5 hPa

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Last 24hr334SE5SE7SE6SE3SE6E6S7S11CalmSE6E5E4SE8SE11SE9SE6SE8SE8S6SE6Calm
1 day agoNW19
G29
NW18
G27
NW22
G30
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NW12
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NW17NW13NW14NW14NW9NW4N6N6N3N5NW3NW4NW4N3NE4Calm4
2 days agoSE8SE7SE8SE8SE7E7SE7SE5SE4E4SE4SW3CalmSE3S4CalmCalmCalmE3W10
G19
NW9W16
G21
NW15
G21
W15
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.