Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kanab, UT
May 17, 2024 6:06 PM MDT (00:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 2:11 PM Moonset 2:26 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 172047 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 247 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active, unsettled pattern will continue through at least the first half of next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...Another summer-like day here across the Beehive State as we head into the weekend. A mainly dry cold front has progressed through most of northern Utah, with gusty northwesterly winds in its wake. Near the front, isolated, high-based showers have formed. Given the deep, dry sub-cloud environment, cant rule out out a few microbursts this afternoon and evening...mainly south of Provo.
As the initial shortwave trough shifts east into the Plains, the next shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the Pacific Northwest. In response, the remnant cold front will begin to lift north as a weak quasi-warm front. This boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based convection across portions of northern and central Utah Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. A significant portion of the guidance envelope continues to support high-based convection moving into northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main impact will be the continued potential for dry microbursts, especially during the daylight hours.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...As we pivot to more unsettled weather this weekend, the main hazards for the long-term period include below-normal temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
A longwave trough will push southward from the Interior Northwest and into northern Utah by Sunday. An overall lack of moisture and dynamics on Sunday will produce only isolated showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain during the afternoon and evening across northern areas. By Monday, a surface cold front will be making its way across Utah, with a slight increase in moisture and more showers/thunderstorms likely along that baroclinic zone, especially during the afternoon. Far southern Utah could see some breezy southwesterly winds Monday afternoon ahead of that frontal passage. While the main cold front will have moved eastward by Tuesday, lingering instability will likely also produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon, particularly over higher terrain and northern areas once again.
As for temperatures, highs on Monday are likely to be 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday across many areas, with far southern Utah highs only decreasing by around 5-10 degrees. The main uncertainty here is with the track of the trough, with a more southern track (50% of ensemble members) likely producing cooler temperatures further south. A shallower trough (26% of members)
would likely limit the degree of cooling over southern Utah.
After a shortwave ridge on Wednesday with a warming trend, another trough is possible later in the work week. Currently, 54% of ensemble members favor a stronger trough which could produce even cooler, unsettled weather. The remaining 46% of members favor a far weaker trough and less active weather.
AVIATION
KSLC...Northwest winds are forecast through this evening before shifting out of the southeast overnight. A light northwest wind can be expected once again early tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming
VFR conditions are forecast throughout the period across the region. Isolated rain showers are forecast for tomorrow afternoon, mainly across any central Utah terminals. Areas of gusty winds are noted this afternoon which will decrease during the evening and are forecast to be light overnight. There is, however, a chance for stronger winds after midnight at southern Utah terminals as indicated by the RAP and HRRR model solutions. Gusts around 30 knots are possible if these solutions come to fruition.
FIRE WEATHER
Isolated high based convection continues to develop near and ahead of a cold front this afternoon...roughly near a line from Ibapah to Uinta County WY. Gusty winds are occurring behind this front, highest across areas of northern Utah closest to the Wyoming border. This front will gradually weaken through this evening as the best support lifts away from the area...and then gradually lift north as a pseudo-warm front through Sunday. Chances of high-based convection will increase with this front and continue into Sunday. Additional troughs will bring unsettled conditions into the next week.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 247 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active, unsettled pattern will continue through at least the first half of next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...Another summer-like day here across the Beehive State as we head into the weekend. A mainly dry cold front has progressed through most of northern Utah, with gusty northwesterly winds in its wake. Near the front, isolated, high-based showers have formed. Given the deep, dry sub-cloud environment, cant rule out out a few microbursts this afternoon and evening...mainly south of Provo.
As the initial shortwave trough shifts east into the Plains, the next shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the Pacific Northwest. In response, the remnant cold front will begin to lift north as a weak quasi-warm front. This boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based convection across portions of northern and central Utah Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. A significant portion of the guidance envelope continues to support high-based convection moving into northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main impact will be the continued potential for dry microbursts, especially during the daylight hours.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...As we pivot to more unsettled weather this weekend, the main hazards for the long-term period include below-normal temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
A longwave trough will push southward from the Interior Northwest and into northern Utah by Sunday. An overall lack of moisture and dynamics on Sunday will produce only isolated showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain during the afternoon and evening across northern areas. By Monday, a surface cold front will be making its way across Utah, with a slight increase in moisture and more showers/thunderstorms likely along that baroclinic zone, especially during the afternoon. Far southern Utah could see some breezy southwesterly winds Monday afternoon ahead of that frontal passage. While the main cold front will have moved eastward by Tuesday, lingering instability will likely also produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon, particularly over higher terrain and northern areas once again.
As for temperatures, highs on Monday are likely to be 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday across many areas, with far southern Utah highs only decreasing by around 5-10 degrees. The main uncertainty here is with the track of the trough, with a more southern track (50% of ensemble members) likely producing cooler temperatures further south. A shallower trough (26% of members)
would likely limit the degree of cooling over southern Utah.
After a shortwave ridge on Wednesday with a warming trend, another trough is possible later in the work week. Currently, 54% of ensemble members favor a stronger trough which could produce even cooler, unsettled weather. The remaining 46% of members favor a far weaker trough and less active weather.
AVIATION
KSLC...Northwest winds are forecast through this evening before shifting out of the southeast overnight. A light northwest wind can be expected once again early tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming
VFR conditions are forecast throughout the period across the region. Isolated rain showers are forecast for tomorrow afternoon, mainly across any central Utah terminals. Areas of gusty winds are noted this afternoon which will decrease during the evening and are forecast to be light overnight. There is, however, a chance for stronger winds after midnight at southern Utah terminals as indicated by the RAP and HRRR model solutions. Gusts around 30 knots are possible if these solutions come to fruition.
FIRE WEATHER
Isolated high based convection continues to develop near and ahead of a cold front this afternoon...roughly near a line from Ibapah to Uinta County WY. Gusty winds are occurring behind this front, highest across areas of northern Utah closest to the Wyoming border. This front will gradually weaken through this evening as the best support lifts away from the area...and then gradually lift north as a pseudo-warm front through Sunday. Chances of high-based convection will increase with this front and continue into Sunday. Additional troughs will bring unsettled conditions into the next week.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KKNB KANAB MUNI,UT | 18 sm | 11 min | W 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 21°F | 10% | 29.93 |
Cedar City, UT,
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