Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:56PM Friday November 16, 2018 4:21 AM EST (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 415 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early in the afternoon, then becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 415 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong low pressure will push well off to the northeast of the region on Friday. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday night into Saturday leading to calmer conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 160401
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
issued by national weather service newport morehead city nc
1101 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue to work across eastern portions of
the area late tonight before moving off to the northeast Friday
morning. High pressure resumes control as the low departs an
and remains over the region through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 1030 pm est Thursday...

rain-free conditions have filled in across the area as the
primary zone of moisture associated with the low has moved
north and east of the area. Primary updates to the forecast were
to account for the abrupt end to the precip and to refine the
wind shifts as the low moves overhead. Breaks in the clouds
will gradually work over the area from southwest to northeast
through the early morning hours, with patchy drizzle continuing
as low level moisture remains elevated.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
As of 325 pm est Thursday...

upper level low will eject NE across the northeast toward new
england through the day Friday. Resultant w-sw downslope flow will
help to quickly scour out clouds Friday morning. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure rebuilds from the west late Friday into Saturday,
bringing a mostly clear sunny sky late Friday into the weekend. Weak
caa at the surface will maintain temperatures near or just below
seasonal averages. Highs Friday generally in the 50s Friday Saturday
and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s for coastal SE va NE nc
Saturday morning.

High pressure at the surface builds overhead into the upcoming
weekend, with a quieter, quasi-zonal flow aloft bringing a dry,
quiet wx weekend across the local area. Maxima do moderate slowly
from Friday through Sunday, but temperatures look to remain at or
just below climo norms. Expect highs generally in the 50s to near 60
with early morning lows generally into the low to mid 30s inland to
around 40 at the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

much quieter weather still on track for much of next week. A weak
upper-level shortwave approaches the area late Sunday-Monday
(coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way of rain
expected with the fropa, but have slight chc pops for coastal NE nc
from 06-18z mon. Looks like the bulk of the rain will fall well
offshore after the front crosses the CWA by Mon aftn. Behind the
front, sfc high pressure settles just west of the region Mon night-
tue. However, am only expecting temperatures to drop to slightly
below average. A weak shortwave caught in NW flow aloft is progged
to swing through the mid-atlantic on Wed (coupled with another cold
front). However, moisture will be lacking across the area, so this
will be another (mainly) dry fropa. Canadian high pressure then
settles over the region on Wed night-thu am before moving offshore
by the end of the day on thu.

The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs on Mon will
still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with highs in the
upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Warming back up into the
50s area-wide on thu. Lows Monday night in the low-mid 30s
inland around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Cooler on both Tuesday and
Wednesday night with lows ranging from near 30 NW to the mid-upper
30s se.

Aviation 04z Friday through Tuesday
As of 110 pm est Thursday...

deepening sfc low continues to lift n-ne along the carolina
coast this late this evening, bringing widespread ifr ceilings
and patchy reduced visibility in fog drizzle. Breezy to gusty
wind will occur through the night. Conditions will improve from
southwest to northeast across the terminals Friday morning,
withVFR conditions ensuing within a couple of hours after
sunrise at the latest.VFR conditions prevail through the rest
of the TAF period.

Outlook: high pressure prevails Friday night through Monday
with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 1045 pm est Thursday...

low pressure moving over the area currently has resulted in a
bit of a lull in winds for some locations, but it will be short
lived. Winds will shift westward in the wake of the low, with a
tightening gradient brining winds back to gale over most of the
chesapeake bay and coastal waters through early Friday morning.

Winds and seas will remain elevated with SCA headlines needed
after the gales expire at various times tonight or on fri.

Calmer conditions return for the weekend as high pressure
settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 11 pm est Thursday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Additional rises are
possible given the rainfall that fell today.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for mdz025.

Nc... High surf advisory until 1 am est Friday for ncz102.

Va... High surf advisory until 1 am est Friday for vaz098.

High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for vaz099-100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Friday for anz633-635-636-
638.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-656-658.

Gale warning until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis...

near term... Ceb@mhx
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ceb@akq
marine... Ceb@akq
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi34 min W 27 G 31 44°F 1007.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi34 min WSW 18 G 26 42°F 54°F1007.8 hPa
44072 7 mi32 min W 21 G 27 44°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi40 min W 29 G 33 43°F 1007.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi40 min W 23 G 29 43°F 1008.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi40 min 55°F1008.7 hPa
44087 17 mi52 min 56°F4 ft
CHBV2 19 mi40 min W 30 G 37 44°F 1006.6 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi34 min WSW 11 G 18 42°F 1009.2 hPa
44064 20 mi32 min W 27 G 35 44°F 1008.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi40 min W 31 G 36 54°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi52 min SW 5.1 41°F 1009 hPa39°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi34 min WSW 19 G 29 42°F 1007.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi32 min WNW 16 G 21 42°F 1008.7 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi40 min W 11 G 16 43°F 58°F1009.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi34 min W 28 G 32 1008 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi52 min 61°F7 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi34 min WSW 13 G 23 41°F 50°F1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi86 minW 13 G 2410.00 miOvercast41°F38°F93%1007.4 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi28 minW 12 G 2210.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1009 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi86 minW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast40°F37°F90%1008.4 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi40 minW 15 G 2510.00 miOvercast43°F37°F81%1009.8 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi47 minW 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast43°F39°F87%1009.1 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi31 minW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast43°F37°F82%1009 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE12NE13NE13
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N9NE9N3W12W13W17
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1 day agoN96N8N11
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N5NE6N9N7NE6N4N5N3N3NE9NE9NE12NE7NE8NE11
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2 days agoSW7SW7W15
G24
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G18
W9W8NW12W5NW5NW5NW9NW9NW5N5CalmN4CalmN7N4N4N5N6N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:02 AM EST     2.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:14 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 PM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:56 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.822.12.11.81.51.20.90.70.811.41.82.22.32.32.11.71.30.90.70.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Messick Point, Back River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Messick Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:43 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:57 PM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:50 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.822.11.91.71.410.80.70.811.41.92.22.32.21.91.61.20.80.60.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.