Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:59PM Sunday September 24, 2017 10:34 PM EDT (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 944 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 944 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered north of the area tonight as hurricane maria starts to take more of a northward track. Maria will move slowly northward Monday and Tuesday to around 150 miles east of cape hatteras Wednesday. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells and increasing seas from hurricane maria will begin to impact the coastal area tonight and persist through most of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250038
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
838 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic through
Monday. Meanwhile, hurricane maria will gradually track north
well off the southeast coast. Maria is forecast to approach the
outer banks Tuesday into Wednesday, before pushing farther
offshore Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front late in the
week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Not much has changed in 24 hours as high pressure remains
ivof the DELMARVA with cirrus moving northward well ahead of
maria. Generally mostly clr overnight with some patchy fog
possible away from the water after midnight. Lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
Maria continues to trundle nwd Monday with the deep layer high
remaining anchored N of the region. Some outer bands of the
tropical cyclone will result in partly to mostly cloudy
conditions along the coast, with partly to mostly sunny
conditions farther inland (w of i-95). Deep layer moisture
remains limited with only a slight chc pop for coastal NE nc. A
modest tightening of the pressure gradient will result in a ~15
mph NE wind across coastal SE va NE nc with gusts to ~25 mph.

High temperatures will remain above normal ranging from the
upper 70s to around 80f at the coast to the mid upper 80s
farther inland.

There is decent model agreement showing maria reaching about
175-200mi SE of CAPE hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Maria continues
to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of due N as the upper
low drops sewd across fl. Increasing moisture and some outer
banded features will result in 20-40% pops along and E of i-95
Tuesday, with 40-50% for coastal SE va NE nc. QPF will be
minimal for most areas. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s
to low 70s Tuesday night, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the
coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph along the coast
Tuesday, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

The latest 12z ECMWF still brings maria about 50 miles closer
to the nc outer banks on Wednesday compared to the 12z gfs. Will
defer to NHC on the exact forecast track as of 5 pm, but
indications are that a shift a bit farther to the west may be
warranted. This will in turn further increase the potential for
some rainfall across SE va NE nc (and coastal md to a lesser
degree), somewhat stronger wind gusts at the coast, higher
seas, and at least minor to moderate coastal flooding. At this
time, still don't anticipate heavy rain along the coast, generally
less than two inches, given maria's offshore track. Will have
pops of 30-60% east of i-95 wed, with slight chc pops into the
piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph from around
norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc where tropical
headlines may eventually be needed. The biggest impacts will
likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion along near the
coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the low mid 80s
inland.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
First part of the extended, Wednesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of hurricane maria. Have
utilized superblend for tangible weather during this period,
given potential uncertainty in the track. Again, will stress
that the 12z ECMWF is ~50 miles closer to the coast than the gfs
and have weighted the forecast more toward its solution for the
extended. This would linger maria closer to the nc obx through
Thursday before eventually taking maria fairly quickly
northeastward away from the area on Friday in advance of an
upper trof dropping southeastward from canada. This trof and
associated cold front move into the region next Saturday.

Above normal temperatures continue on Thursday, with highs from
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday Saturday in the wake of hurricane maria. Lows Wednesday
night range from the mid 60s to around 70f, then mid 50s NW to
mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the 50s to low 60s
Friday Saturday nights.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions across the region at 00z with increasing high
clouds from maria moving into the carolinas and southern
virginina. NE winds 5 to 10 kts overnight will become gusty
15-20 kt by early to mid morning. High pressure remains anchored
n of the region tonight as maria continues to track nwd.

Increasing clouds late tonight across SE va NE nc will bring
some MVFR CIGS for ecg in the morning and ifr conditions by the
aftn evening. Patchy fog is possible for phf and sby again
overnight.

Outlook: increasing moisture and some distant banding from
maria will result in a 40-50% chc of showers for orf ecg and
20-40% for ric sby phf. Conditions Tuesday
night Wednesday Wednesday night will largely be dictated by how
close maria gets to the outer banks. A closer approach will
result in breezy to windy conditions, especially at orf ecg
along with an increased chc of rain and degraded flight
conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday
and pushes maria farther offshore.

Marine
Hurricane maria is located about 470 miles SE of the sc nc
border as of 400 pm. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered
north of the area tonight as maria starts to take more of a
northward track. NE winds average 10-15kt overnight with long
period onshore swell allowing seas to average 4-5ft north 5-8ft
south. Gradient winds between high pressure to the north and
maria to the south will steadily increase Mon into Mon night...

reaching SCA conditions (ne 15-30kt)during this time for srn
coastal waters, currituck sound, SRN ches bay, and the lower
james river. Seas build ahead of maria: NRN waters 5-6ft mon
aftn... Building to 6-8ft late Mon night. SRN waters 6-8ft mon
aftn... Building to 8-10ft late Mon night. SCA headlines have
been issued for bay sound lower james for Mon mon night with
ongoing SCA for hazardous seas for all coastal waters during
this time.

Latest 12z model guidance (as well as the official NHC forecast)
still keeps maria offshore of the carolinas Tue tue night and
off the mid atlantic coast Wed into thu. NE winds continue to
increase during this timeframe with the strongest winds
expected to occur Tue night into Wed morning. Tropical storm
conditions will be possible for SRN bay, sound, and coastal
waters from chincoteague to currituck light with wind gusts
ranging from 35-45kt (up to 50kt possible far SRN coastal
waters). A tropical storm watch has been issued for currituck
sound and SRN waters from the va nc border to currituck light
until 12z 800 am Thu morning. Aforementioned areas above may
be added to the watch as late as Mon aftn since impacts farther
north of the watch area are not anticipated to begin until tue
evening. Elsewhere, strong solid SCA conditions (20-30kt) will
occur. Seas build as high as 15-17ft south and 11-16ft north
during peak wave heights on Wed as maria is currently expected
to be centered about 175 miles E of duck, nc. Maria should
start to drift eastward Wed aftn early evening and move away
from the coast Wed night... Getting pushed out to sea on thu.

Adverse N winds to diminish west to east late Wed night with
wind speeds remaining SCA 20-30kt bay sound ocean lower james
into thu. Nnw swell behind departing maria will keep seas
elevated while being very slow to drop to 6-10ft north and
7-11ft south by late Thu aftn.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures had decreased some this afternoon averaging
1.0 ft above normal tide. Water levels remain elevated with some
nuisance flooding still occuring in the bay and rivers,
however, water levels remain below minor flood thresholds. Will
need to watch for additional flooding by mid week, especially
later Tue and Wed (and perhaps thu). This will depend on the
exact track of maria, but the potential for significant tidal
flooding reaching moderate to even major levels exists
(especially over locations adjacent to the lower bay and
southern va NE nc waters). High surf advisories likely will be
needed by Tue lasting into Wednesday and Thursday. The
combination of storm surge and large waves could result in
significant coastal erosion and damage to dune structures mid
week.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through today, as 4-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Tropical storm watch for ncz015>017-102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz632-634-638.

Tropical storm watch for anz633-658.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz650-652-654-656.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm mpr
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajz jdm
aviation... Jdm jef
marine... Bmd
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi47 min ENE 7 G 8 77°F 1017.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi47 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1016.5 hPa
44072 7 mi35 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 77°F1 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi47 min NE 8 G 8.9
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi47 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 75°F 1016.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi47 min 77°F
44064 20 mi35 min 9.7 G 12 75°F 76°F2 ft1016.5 hPa (+0.5)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi47 min NE 6 G 8 75°F 1016.4 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 21 mi47 min ENE 11 G 12 75°F 77°F1016.4 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 21 mi35 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 79°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi47 min NE 2.9 G 5.1
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi65 min Calm 69°F 1018 hPa66°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi47 min ENE 9.9 G 12 74°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi35 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 77°F1017.2 hPa (+0.0)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi47 min E 1 G 2.9 73°F 78°F1016.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi47 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 1017.4 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi35 min 75°F4 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi47 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 79°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi97 minNE 310.00 miFair72°F67°F84%1017.2 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F93%1016.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi97 minN 010.00 miFair70°F60°F72%1016.2 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi96 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F64°F71%1017 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1017.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi44 minNE 610.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE6NE8NE7NE7E11E10E9E9NE4E3N3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN43NE6NE6NE5E4E5E8E7E7NE6NE3E3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW6W3W6W6W6W6NW6NW7N7N9NE5NE3NW3NW3W5W4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.52.21.71.10.60.40.40.81.322.52.92.92.62.21.61.10.70.50.611.52

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:43 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.52.11.61.10.70.40.50.71.21.72.32.72.82.52.11.51.10.70.60.70.91.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.