Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

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Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:50PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 646 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 foot. Scattered showers this morning. Isolated tstms late this morning, then showers and tstms likely this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late in the evening, then becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 646 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary stalled near the virginia and north carolina border will lift back north as a warm front today. A cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build into and across the region from the west Thursday through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211129
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
729 am edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front across southern virginia will slowly lift north
across the remainder of the area later today. A cold front will
cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Dry and
pleasant weather is expected Thursday through Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 715 am edt Tuesday...

latest analysis indicates a weak warm front over southern va,
slowly lifting n. The flow aloft is currently light from the
west, but will become more SW later today as an upper trough
centered over the ms valley advances to the east. For today, the
cams high- res guidance suggests a wave of increasing moisture
and lift will focus along the advancing warm front and over the
far SE this morning, before becoming more of a broad- brushed
likely pop for most if not all of the CWA after 18z. Not a lot
of confidence to stray far from this solution even though rain
is not expected to be continuous. SPC day 1 outlook places the
nw into a slight risk with a marginal risk elsewhere in the cwa,
but the slight risk area across the NW is more likely to occur
late into the evening as the upper trough axis and a significant
shortwave swings through the region along with increasing mid
level lapse rates increasing winds aloft from 00z to 06z wed.

Low level instability will not be optimal during this period
however, so the slight risk is still rather uncertain. For the
rest of the CWA in the marginal risk, will need to monitor low
level shear late this morning into the aftn as the front slowly
lifts through the area. If some breaks of sunshine develop,
isolated strong damaging wind gusts will be possible. While
unlikely, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out across the
northern zones this aftn given decent low level directional
shear (boundary layer SE flow veering to the SW with height).

However, lapse rates are generally poor and the more likely
scenario is just for some heavy downpours localized minor
flooding. Highs today will avg in the low to mid 80s (upper 80s
if the Sun comes out for a longer period than is currently
anticipated).

Have ramped pops in the piedmont up to likely this evening with
the progged shortwave providing increasing lift, then pops are
expected to wane significantly after 06z. Warm humid with lows
in the low-mid 70s.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
As of 350 am edt Tuesday...

latest models continue to support that there is a (significant)
wx change on the way... But not until thu. A secondary... Stronger
cold front to follow on Wed as trough aloft sharpens into the
ern conus. Primary deep moisture plume to be pushed off the
coast by late Tue night. After a period of only about 20% pops
wed morning... Will have pops back to 30-50% Wed afternoon evening
with that second cold front crossing the local area. Partly-
mostly sunny Wed morning, then becoming partly mostly cloudy in
the aftn. Highs mid 80s W to upper 80s e.

Substantial drying wx expected by Thu on N winds. Dew points to
drop into the 50s N and central areas... L-m60s SE on thu. Will
hang onto slight chc pops early Thu right near the coast then
just near the albemarle sound Thu afternoon. Mostly sunny... Except
partly sunny SE va-ne nc Thu W highs in the l80s. Pleasant and
dry cool Thu night with lows 55-60 f inland to the mid 60s se
va NE nc coast. Mostly sunny Fri with highs 80-85 f.

Long term Friday night through Monday
As of 220 pm edt Monday...

drier pleasant wx expected to continue Fri night through
sat... Then becoming warmer Sun and mon. A trough aloft crossing
the area Sun (as the warmer air spreads into the region) may
kick off isold sct shras tstms.

Lows Fri night in the u50s in the far W to around 70f along the
coast in SE va-ne nc. Highs Sat in the l80s at the coast to the
m80s inland. Lows Sat night in the m-u60s... Except the l70s
along the coast in SE va- NE nc. Highs Sun in the m80s E to the
u80s w. Lows Sun night in the u60s-l70s. Highs Mon in the u80s
at the coast to around 90f inland.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 715 am edt Tuesday...

warm front is situated over southern va, slowly lifting n.

Isolated scattered shra this morning to become more numerous
this aftn though timing of tstms will be problematic. Some ifr
cigs early on will generally become MVFR toVFR after 14z,
though brief periods of ifr vsbys will be possible in any
shower TSTM late this morning through this aftn. Some storms
may briefly develop strong winds this aftn, though heavy
downpours are more likely in any storm. Outside of convection,
winds will shift from the E SE to the S SW later in the day at
around 10 kt. Continued chance for showers tstms into this
evening before coverage wanes overnight.

Variably cloudy Wed ahead of a cold front that will approach
from the nw, with some scattered mainly aftn early evening tstms
expected. The front exits the coast early Thu with a surge of
n to NE winds gusting to 20 kt near the coast. High pressure
builds in Thu through sat, providing mostly clear skies, dry wx
andVFR conditions.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Tuesday...

the weak front over southern va will lift north as a warm front
today. S to SW winds will increase with mixing this afternoon.

Expect marginal SCA conditions across the bay mid to late
afternoon with gusts to 20 kt expected. Winds will also increase
over the coastal waters this afternoon especially close to the
coast as daytime heating mixes stronger winds aloft to the
surface. Winds may not increase and become gusty until 2 to 3
pm. Models remain consistent that SCA will persist tonight and
into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the next cold front the S to
sw flow increases overnight and due to the warm warm waters and
increasing winds just off the surface winds should actually
increase some overnight with SCA conditions over the
bay... Rivers and coastal waters. Winds will decrease some by wed
afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west and moves
off the coast late afternoon into evening. Expect N to NW winds
to increase again Wed night into Thu morning as cold air
advection behind the front pushed down the bay and coast. Still
think a second period of SCA winds can be expected on the bay in
the Wednesday night Thursday time frame. More tranquil
conditions expected Friday into the weekend as high pressure
settles in and slides slowly east.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Wednesday for anz630>636-638-650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Lkb
marine... Jao wrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi31 min SSE 16 G 19
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi37 min S 8 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
44072 7 mi29 min SSE 14 G 16 80°F
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi37 min S 6 G 8 78°F 1015.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi37 min SSE 6 G 8 77°F 1016.6 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi31 min 80°F
44087 17 mi109 min 81°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi37 min SSE 8 G 9.9
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi31 min S 6 G 8 78°F 1016.2 hPa
44064 20 mi29 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1016.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi37 min SE 9.9 G 12 78°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi49 min SSE 1.9 78°F 1017 hPa78°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi31 min SSE 6 G 8
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi29 min SSE 14 G 18 80°F 1018.4 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi31 min S 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 83°F1016 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi31 min ESE 13 G 14
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi109 min 78°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi31 min ESE 6 G 8.9

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi23 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F76°F93%1017.2 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi25 minS 510.00 miOvercast78°F75°F90%1016.4 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi83 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1015.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi80 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F73°F94%1016.8 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi24 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1016.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi28 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F90%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E9NE75N9N3E5E5NE7E7E7E5E7E7E3NE4E5--NE3E5SE3SE4SE3S5
1 day agoW6W6W5W7W3W33NW7NE5N4E5E5E5E3CalmS3NE4E8E6NE4NE3SW5NE6E8
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Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
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Tue -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.91.31.722.12.11.81.410.70.50.60.91.41.92.32.62.62.42.11.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:11 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.81.11.51.9221.81.410.70.60.60.91.31.82.22.52.52.421.51.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.