Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Manor, VA
May 12, 2024 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:36 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 310 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Today - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night - S winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night - E winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 310 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
prevailing sub-advisory conditions are then expected from tonight through Monday. A low pressure system crosses the area from Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds.
prevailing sub-advisory conditions are then expected from tonight through Monday. A low pressure system crosses the area from Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds.
FXUS61 KAKQ 120737 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers are possible for the Eastern Shore today ahead of an upper trough. Dry and warmer to start the work week before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Warm and dry for most of the area with plenty of sunshine.
-Showers and a few storms are possible across the Eastern Shore ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Weak low pressure is noted across western NY with a cold front extending southward into western VA. Weakening line of showers with occasional thunder continues to move through the NE third of the area early this morning ahead of the upper trough and cold front.
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region with broken to overcast skies accompanying the aforementioned showers.
These showers should move offshore over the next few hours but will maintain chance PoPs for the MD Eastern Shore as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the trough axis.
Most of the area remains dry today but cooler temps aloft/steeper mid level lapse rates and ascent ahead of the upper trough will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to reform across the MD Eastern Shore this afternoon. High temps range from the mid 70s near and south of I-64 to the 60s and low 70s for areas to the north. Coastal portions of the Eastern Shore near Ocean City may struggle to warm much above 60 degrees this afternoon with onshore flow and more clouds. Dry tonight with skies clearing out behind the departing trough. Low temps fall into the mid 40s to low 50s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Dry and warm on Monday.
-Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.
High pressure builds over the region Monday, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. High temps climb back into the 70s to low 80s. Clouds increase late in the afternoon from the SW ahead of our next system. A closed upper low and weak surface low will translate eastward Monday night with lows only in the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances look to hold off until after midnight across the Piedmont.
PoPs increase quickly from west to east Tuesday morning as deeper moisture overspreads the area. Showers and storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening but limited instability and deep layer shear will keep chances for severe weather low. Highs Tuesday range from the low 70s in the Piedmont to the mid 70s closer to the coast. The heaviest rainfall likely occurs after sunset Tuesday with average QPF ranging from 0.5-1" across the region. Mild overnight with temps in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Showers and storms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight.
-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday.
The upper low and surface reflection will be slow to cross the area Wednesday with continued chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. High pressure builds in briefly on Thursday but another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms. High temps remain in the 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday with low to mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF period. A line of showers with occasional thunder will continue to drop SE across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore this morning with locally gusty winds and potential for MVFR CIGs and VSBY. Confidence in impacts is highest at SBY but should be short-lived so will handle with a TEMPO. Showers and MVFR CIGs will linger at SBY through 12z or so with VFR prevailing elsewhere. Light and variable winds outside of convective influences this morning, becoming NW around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid to late morning through the afternoon.
Additional showers and potential for thunder at SBY as the upper trough swings through the region this afternoon. Clearing skies and VFR conditions are expected tonight with light and variable winds.
Outlook: Dry conditions return area-wide on Monday. However, unsettled weather returns Tue-Wed as another low pressure system approaches the FA.
MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through Monday
-Additional SCAs possible ahead of a low pressure system Monday night and more likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning
Low pressure to our north (over PA/NY) will continue to track SE today. SE winds are 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt at this hour, but will turn to the NW today (and remain 10-15kt) as the low to our north drags a front through the area. High pressure returns tonight, allowing winds to become NE at 5-10kt. Winds then increase out of the S-SE on Monday as that high moves well offshore. In fact, a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Monday night, and local wind probs are now showing a 40-60% chc of sustained 18kt winds on the Ches Bay between 7 PM Mon-2 AM Tue. Won't issue headlines attm as the event appears marginal and it is in the 4th period. Seas subside to to ~3ft today before building back to 4ft by Mon night.
S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system is progged to approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to ~20kt (and remain around 20kt through most of Tue night). Local wind probs show an 80- 100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. In addition, seas build to 5ft ahead of the mid-week system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1-3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through this morning for all areas adjacent to the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay.
-Minor to locally moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1 to locally 2 feet above ground level in vulnerable areas) is expected during this morning's high tide in the advisory area.
Tidal anomalies have fallen a bit in the lower bay and along the Atlantic coast with the S-SE winds, but remain elevated in the mid/upper Ches Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories continue through this morning from Mathews County north to Lewisetta in addition to the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At this time, it looks like Lewisetta/Bishop's Head stand the best chance of seeing (low-end)
moderate flooding early this morning, but confidence is low. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the upper James River, as water levels in Jamestown appear to be cresting right around minor flood thresholds. Not expecting anything worse than nuisance flooding in the mid/upper bay (with no tidal flooding farther south)
over the next few days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers are possible for the Eastern Shore today ahead of an upper trough. Dry and warmer to start the work week before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Warm and dry for most of the area with plenty of sunshine.
-Showers and a few storms are possible across the Eastern Shore ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Weak low pressure is noted across western NY with a cold front extending southward into western VA. Weakening line of showers with occasional thunder continues to move through the NE third of the area early this morning ahead of the upper trough and cold front.
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region with broken to overcast skies accompanying the aforementioned showers.
These showers should move offshore over the next few hours but will maintain chance PoPs for the MD Eastern Shore as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the trough axis.
Most of the area remains dry today but cooler temps aloft/steeper mid level lapse rates and ascent ahead of the upper trough will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to reform across the MD Eastern Shore this afternoon. High temps range from the mid 70s near and south of I-64 to the 60s and low 70s for areas to the north. Coastal portions of the Eastern Shore near Ocean City may struggle to warm much above 60 degrees this afternoon with onshore flow and more clouds. Dry tonight with skies clearing out behind the departing trough. Low temps fall into the mid 40s to low 50s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Dry and warm on Monday.
-Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.
High pressure builds over the region Monday, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. High temps climb back into the 70s to low 80s. Clouds increase late in the afternoon from the SW ahead of our next system. A closed upper low and weak surface low will translate eastward Monday night with lows only in the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances look to hold off until after midnight across the Piedmont.
PoPs increase quickly from west to east Tuesday morning as deeper moisture overspreads the area. Showers and storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening but limited instability and deep layer shear will keep chances for severe weather low. Highs Tuesday range from the low 70s in the Piedmont to the mid 70s closer to the coast. The heaviest rainfall likely occurs after sunset Tuesday with average QPF ranging from 0.5-1" across the region. Mild overnight with temps in the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Showers and storms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight.
-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday.
The upper low and surface reflection will be slow to cross the area Wednesday with continued chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. High pressure builds in briefly on Thursday but another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms. High temps remain in the 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday with low to mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF period. A line of showers with occasional thunder will continue to drop SE across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore this morning with locally gusty winds and potential for MVFR CIGs and VSBY. Confidence in impacts is highest at SBY but should be short-lived so will handle with a TEMPO. Showers and MVFR CIGs will linger at SBY through 12z or so with VFR prevailing elsewhere. Light and variable winds outside of convective influences this morning, becoming NW around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid to late morning through the afternoon.
Additional showers and potential for thunder at SBY as the upper trough swings through the region this afternoon. Clearing skies and VFR conditions are expected tonight with light and variable winds.
Outlook: Dry conditions return area-wide on Monday. However, unsettled weather returns Tue-Wed as another low pressure system approaches the FA.
MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through Monday
-Additional SCAs possible ahead of a low pressure system Monday night and more likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning
Low pressure to our north (over PA/NY) will continue to track SE today. SE winds are 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt at this hour, but will turn to the NW today (and remain 10-15kt) as the low to our north drags a front through the area. High pressure returns tonight, allowing winds to become NE at 5-10kt. Winds then increase out of the S-SE on Monday as that high moves well offshore. In fact, a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Monday night, and local wind probs are now showing a 40-60% chc of sustained 18kt winds on the Ches Bay between 7 PM Mon-2 AM Tue. Won't issue headlines attm as the event appears marginal and it is in the 4th period. Seas subside to to ~3ft today before building back to 4ft by Mon night.
S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system is progged to approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to ~20kt (and remain around 20kt through most of Tue night). Local wind probs show an 80- 100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. In addition, seas build to 5ft ahead of the mid-week system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1-3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through this morning for all areas adjacent to the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay.
-Minor to locally moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1 to locally 2 feet above ground level in vulnerable areas) is expected during this morning's high tide in the advisory area.
Tidal anomalies have fallen a bit in the lower bay and along the Atlantic coast with the S-SE winds, but remain elevated in the mid/upper Ches Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories continue through this morning from Mathews County north to Lewisetta in addition to the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At this time, it looks like Lewisetta/Bishop's Head stand the best chance of seeing (low-end)
moderate flooding early this morning, but confidence is low. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the upper James River, as water levels in Jamestown appear to be cresting right around minor flood thresholds. Not expecting anything worse than nuisance flooding in the mid/upper bay (with no tidal flooding farther south)
over the next few days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 6 sm | 61 min | S 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 54°F | 50°F | 88% | 29.81 | |
| KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA | 7 sm | 60 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 50°F | 82% | 29.80 | |
| KFAF FELKER AAF,VA | 11 sm | 60 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 50°F | 82% | 29.78 | |
| KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA | 17 sm | 56 min | S 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 54°F | 50°F | 88% | 29.82 | |
| KORF NORFOLK INTL,VA | 22 sm | 64 min | SSW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 50°F | 88% | 29.81 |
Tide / Current for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT 2.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT 2.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
Wakefield, VA,
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