Monday, January22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:45PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:43 PM EST (19:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:51AMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 221938
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
238 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Cold front passes tonight with gusty showers followed by much
colder temperatures for Tuesday. Cool and unsettled conditions
continue Wednesday, then warmer to end the week.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 238 pm Monday...

deep upper level low will pass to our northwest during the
period. This will sponsor the passage of a strong cold front
across our area tonight. Initial showers now entering our
kentucky counties should remain light and even diminish some as
they head east. A better line of showers is expected to develop
along the front and head eastward into our area overnight. Could
even see an isolated rumble of thunder with these. We will have
to watch the wind gust potential with this line of showers as
strong winds will be in place just above the surface. However,
did not hoist a wind advisory for now as low level inversion
should keep strongest winds aloft, and advisories issued by mrx
and rnk are for mountain wave potential which should not be a
concern on our side of the CWA border. Rainfall amounts are
expected to shake out in the one-quarter to one-half inch range,
which we should be able to handle hydro-wise.

A lull in the precip is expected behind the front Tuesday
morning before the passage of the upper level trough axis sparks
additional shower development during the afternoon on Tuesday.

Temperatures will reach early highs Tuesday morning and then
remain steady or slowly fall during the day. Rain showers will
transition to snow showers over the higher terrain by late
afternoon. The bigger issue on Tuesday will be gusty west-
southwest winds which may approach advisory criteria, especially
in the mountains.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
As of 230 am Monday...

cold front will be east of the forecast area to start the
period, with cold air surging in behind the front. Have a non-
diurnal temperature trend in at higher elevations Tuesday, with
a transition to from rain to snow as an upper level low crosses
the great lakes. Across the lowlands, we should see mostly rain
showers Tuesday before changing over to snow through the late
afternoon and evening. Bumped up winds and gusts above the
consensus blend with 40-60kt 850mb flow Tuesday into Tuesday

Expect continuing snow showers Wednesday as a 500mb shortwave
trough slides through, with northwest flow snow showers
Wednesday night.

Ended up with a couple inches of snow across the mountainous
counties of wv, with up to 4 on the highest ridges. This is a
decent increase over the previous forecast. Across the
lowlands, expect a dusting west to a half inch east.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 230 am Monday...

dry weather with a warming trend is expected Thursday and
Friday as a broad surface high passes. A cold front approaches
from the west Friday night. Some timing difference between gfs
and ecmwf, but front looks to cross Saturday night. Depending on
the timing, could see precipitation start transitioning to snow
Sunday as cold air arrives.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
As of 1251 pm Monday...

vfr flight conditions will prevail through the rest of the day
with breezy south to southeast winds. A band of light showers
will progress eastward late this afternoon and early in the
evening, weakening as it does so. Will handle this with a couple
hours of vcsh in the tafs.

Conditions deteriorate overnight. First off, low level wind
sheer will develop early in the evening with a stout 45 to 50
kts shown in the forecast soundings as low as 2k ft agl. A band
of showers will then progress quickly from west to east along
with a cold front. Anticipate a one or two hour period of MVFR
conditions with gusty winds as this passes through a given
location. A rumble of thunder will be possible but not carried
in the tafs at this time. Conditions then calm down a bit behind
the front with most locations returning toVFR before winds
pick up again Tuesday morning and ceilings gradually lower back
down toward the MVFR range.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: moderate.

Alternate scenarios: frontal timing showers could vary from
forecast. May need brief ifr visibilities in tempos for the
onset of showers.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
est 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
after 18z Tuesday...

no widespread ifr expected.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Abe
near term... Abe
short term... Mz
long term... Mz
aviation... Abe

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi49 minSSE 7 G 1510.00 miFair62°F38°F41%1014.9 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi69 minS 17 G 2310.00 miFair61°F41°F48%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3S3CalmCalmCalmSE6S4CalmS3S6CalmSE4CalmS4S8S4S3SE4S6SE5SE9
1 day agoSW8SW6SW5W10
2 days agoW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.