Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vansant, VA
May 6, 2024 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 4:24 AM Moonset 6:00 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 061920 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 320 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will pose concern for localized flooding each day.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 122 PM Monday...
The severe threat remains low this afternoon and into this evening, but some storms have been producing small hail up to 0.50" in diameter, below severe criteria. 1 hour flash flood guidance is lowest near the Ohio River in northwestern WV and southeast OH, around 0.75-1.25". Therefore, we will continue to monitor for the threat of flooding where thunderstorms move over repeated areas.
Dense fog will likely develop overnight with calm winds and plentiful surface moisture, especially in areas that saw rainfall today.
The threat of severe thunderstorms will return tomorrow, with all severe modes possible (damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail). MLCAPE values of 1,500-2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts will provide support for organized convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. The better atmospheric dynamics will likely be across western WV, southeast OH and northeast KY, and this is where the Slight Risk is located. The best overall threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will be just outside of our County Warning Area, across central and western Ohio.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 PM Monday...
Key Points: * Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can't be ruled out.
* Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and localized flooding, particularly at night.
A mid-upper level short wave trough approaching from the west drives a surface cold front toward the area Tuesday night, and then across the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms likely on going at the end of the day Tuesday continue out ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening, as elevated CAPE of 2-2.5 KJ/kg are maintained ahead of the cold front. The strongest storms will be over the middle Ohio valley, as an instability gradient with CAPE decreasing to the east is maintained.
PW values up around 1.5 inches ahead of the front also spell high rainfall rates which could also yield a localized flash flood threat. especially in those area most saturated from previous rainfall this week.
Wednesday brings a lull in convection as the front stalls across southern portions of the area, and ridging at all levels tilting west with height crosses. Afternoon thunderstorms can still pop up, mainly central and southern portions of the area, near and south of the front.
A strengthening low level southwest flow transports rich moisture into the area Wednesday night, amid increasing shear ahead of another mid-upper level short wave trough and triple point, as the front lifts through the area as a warm front, and then the cold front associated with the system approaches. With elevated CAPE of at least 2 KJ/kg, 0-6 kn bulk shear 35-45 kts, and 0-3 km helicity in excess of 300 m2/s2, this is likely to increase the severe weather threat overnight Wednesday night, including damaging wind, hail, heavy to excessive rainfall and even tornadoes.
Central guidance temperatures reflect the unseasonably warm conditions during this period, mid 80s by day and mid 60s by night across the lowlands.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 100 PM Monday...
Key Points: * Unsettled pattern persists through the period.
* Strongest, heaviest thunderstorms most likely on Thursday.
A mid-upper level short wave trough approaches Thursday, and then crosses on Friday, leaving a more southern stream component stranded out over the Four Corners Region. A second mid-upper level short wave trough then crosses this weekend.
A surface low pressure system associated with the first trough passes just north of the forecast area Thursday, its cold front crossing the forecast area during the morning to midday hours.
With very warm and moist air having been transported across the area ahead of the system, showers will be widespread across the area Thursday morning, with embedded heavier rainfall including a few thunderstorms. Flooding potential this week is likely to be highest Thursday given the likelihood of heavy rain on saturated grounds from following rounds of heavy rain during the short term.
Elevated CAPE up around 2 KJ/kg and intense shear associated with the system, including 0-3 km storm relative helicity possibly as high as 400 ms/s2, could lead to severe weather including a tornado or two Thursday, despite the early day timing. A more isolated severe threat continues through the peak heating hours, even as the initial cold front passes.
Thunderstorms weaken and dissipate, and shower coverage decreases, Thursday night. The passage of the mid-upper level trough Friday is likely to lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage again, especially during the afternoon heating, with gusty winds and hail possible beneath the cold air aloft.
The second short wave trough follows right on the heels of its predecessor and slowly crosses next weekend. With a weaker surface reflection, this will lead to more diurnally tied showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty as to how deep the trough digs, but the more it does, the greater the afternoon hail threat, especially if it digs far enough south to get its low center over the forecast area.
Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures Thursday getting knocked back to around normal for Friday and the weekend, in the wake of the passage of the first trough and surface low pressure system.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 120 PM Monday...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered throughout the rest of the afternoon and into early this evening. The exact timing and location of thunderstorms is difficult to pinpoint, but any location that receives a thunderstorm can expect brief deterioration to IFR conditions. VCTS was included in the TAFs for this afternoon due to the low confidence of thunderstorm timing at each terminal.
The MVFR/IFR cloud deck over central and western portions of West Virginia will persist through late this afternoon. There may be a brief improvement to VFR conditions this evening before areas of fog return overnight. Expect fog to begin to develop after 03Z Tuesday, lasting until 12-14Z. Expect IFR and LIFR conditions in fog overnight.
Winds will remain light through the duration of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low in fog; medium for the afternoon.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of shower/storm restrictions may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers and thunderstorms.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 320 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will pose concern for localized flooding each day.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 122 PM Monday...
The severe threat remains low this afternoon and into this evening, but some storms have been producing small hail up to 0.50" in diameter, below severe criteria. 1 hour flash flood guidance is lowest near the Ohio River in northwestern WV and southeast OH, around 0.75-1.25". Therefore, we will continue to monitor for the threat of flooding where thunderstorms move over repeated areas.
Dense fog will likely develop overnight with calm winds and plentiful surface moisture, especially in areas that saw rainfall today.
The threat of severe thunderstorms will return tomorrow, with all severe modes possible (damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail). MLCAPE values of 1,500-2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts will provide support for organized convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. The better atmospheric dynamics will likely be across western WV, southeast OH and northeast KY, and this is where the Slight Risk is located. The best overall threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will be just outside of our County Warning Area, across central and western Ohio.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 PM Monday...
Key Points: * Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can't be ruled out.
* Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and localized flooding, particularly at night.
A mid-upper level short wave trough approaching from the west drives a surface cold front toward the area Tuesday night, and then across the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms likely on going at the end of the day Tuesday continue out ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening, as elevated CAPE of 2-2.5 KJ/kg are maintained ahead of the cold front. The strongest storms will be over the middle Ohio valley, as an instability gradient with CAPE decreasing to the east is maintained.
PW values up around 1.5 inches ahead of the front also spell high rainfall rates which could also yield a localized flash flood threat. especially in those area most saturated from previous rainfall this week.
Wednesday brings a lull in convection as the front stalls across southern portions of the area, and ridging at all levels tilting west with height crosses. Afternoon thunderstorms can still pop up, mainly central and southern portions of the area, near and south of the front.
A strengthening low level southwest flow transports rich moisture into the area Wednesday night, amid increasing shear ahead of another mid-upper level short wave trough and triple point, as the front lifts through the area as a warm front, and then the cold front associated with the system approaches. With elevated CAPE of at least 2 KJ/kg, 0-6 kn bulk shear 35-45 kts, and 0-3 km helicity in excess of 300 m2/s2, this is likely to increase the severe weather threat overnight Wednesday night, including damaging wind, hail, heavy to excessive rainfall and even tornadoes.
Central guidance temperatures reflect the unseasonably warm conditions during this period, mid 80s by day and mid 60s by night across the lowlands.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 100 PM Monday...
Key Points: * Unsettled pattern persists through the period.
* Strongest, heaviest thunderstorms most likely on Thursday.
A mid-upper level short wave trough approaches Thursday, and then crosses on Friday, leaving a more southern stream component stranded out over the Four Corners Region. A second mid-upper level short wave trough then crosses this weekend.
A surface low pressure system associated with the first trough passes just north of the forecast area Thursday, its cold front crossing the forecast area during the morning to midday hours.
With very warm and moist air having been transported across the area ahead of the system, showers will be widespread across the area Thursday morning, with embedded heavier rainfall including a few thunderstorms. Flooding potential this week is likely to be highest Thursday given the likelihood of heavy rain on saturated grounds from following rounds of heavy rain during the short term.
Elevated CAPE up around 2 KJ/kg and intense shear associated with the system, including 0-3 km storm relative helicity possibly as high as 400 ms/s2, could lead to severe weather including a tornado or two Thursday, despite the early day timing. A more isolated severe threat continues through the peak heating hours, even as the initial cold front passes.
Thunderstorms weaken and dissipate, and shower coverage decreases, Thursday night. The passage of the mid-upper level trough Friday is likely to lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage again, especially during the afternoon heating, with gusty winds and hail possible beneath the cold air aloft.
The second short wave trough follows right on the heels of its predecessor and slowly crosses next weekend. With a weaker surface reflection, this will lead to more diurnally tied showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty as to how deep the trough digs, but the more it does, the greater the afternoon hail threat, especially if it digs far enough south to get its low center over the forecast area.
Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures Thursday getting knocked back to around normal for Friday and the weekend, in the wake of the passage of the first trough and surface low pressure system.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 120 PM Monday...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered throughout the rest of the afternoon and into early this evening. The exact timing and location of thunderstorms is difficult to pinpoint, but any location that receives a thunderstorm can expect brief deterioration to IFR conditions. VCTS was included in the TAFs for this afternoon due to the low confidence of thunderstorm timing at each terminal.
The MVFR/IFR cloud deck over central and western portions of West Virginia will persist through late this afternoon. There may be a brief improvement to VFR conditions this evening before areas of fog return overnight. Expect fog to begin to develop after 03Z Tuesday, lasting until 12-14Z. Expect IFR and LIFR conditions in fog overnight.
Winds will remain light through the duration of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low in fog; medium for the afternoon.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of shower/storm restrictions may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers and thunderstorms.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJFZ TAZEWELL COUNTY,VA | 21 sm | 24 min | W 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 30.02 | ||||
| KLNP LONESOME PINE,VA | 24 sm | 2.4 hrs | S 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 30.05 |
Jackson, KY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE