Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:15PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:16 PM EST (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 201708
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
1208 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Wintry precipitation to all rain, becoming moderate to heavy
this morning. Freezing rain along eastern slopes through this
afternoon. Moderate heavy rain pose flooding threat.

Near term through tonight
As of 1200 pm Wednesday... Temperatures have risen above freezing
across eastern nicholas and eastern webster counties, so the
winter storm warning has been cancelled.

As of 925 am Wednesday... Cancelled the remainder of the winter
weather advisories in place as the temperatures have climbed
above freezing. As for the winter storm warning... Temperatures
are still at or below freezing with moderate to heavy rainfall
pushing into the area. Expecting significant icing across
pocahontas county with more than a quarter inch of ice possible and
an additional tenth of an inch will be possible across the rest
of the warning area.

Have also adjusted pop with this forecast update based on latest
radar and meso-model trends.

As of 810 am Wednesday... With temperatures now above freezing
across much of the region, have cancelled the winter weather
advisory for several zones. Will take a look at temperatures
across the northern CWA when the next round of observations come
in at 9 am and should be able to cancel a few more advisories.

As 530 am Wednesday...

removed pops across extreme southwest va and nearby portions of
wv per latest radar and high resolution models trends. Axis of
precipitation has focus more across southeast oh and northeast
ky. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 243 am Wednesday...

widespread categorical pops coded with areas of precipitation
lifting north with a warm front through late Wednesday. Dual
pol radar indicates precipitation type transition zone roughly
from athens ohio, southwest to charleston, continuing east
through bkw. Have received wintry mix reports falling on pcpn
transition zone. Freezing rain will produce ice accumulations
exceeding a tenth of an inch along the eastern slopes of the
appalachians, from raleigh, north through pocahontas and
randolph counties where temperatures should remain below
freezing at least through 2 pm Wednesday. North of the
transition zone, light snow accumulations could be expected
ranging from a trace to 2 inches across portions of southeast oh
and northern wv. In addition, a trace or ice accumulations less
than a tenth of an inch can be expected on these areas.

Otherwise, areas of rain and sleet will transition into all
rain, becoming moderate to heavy at times overnight and
Wednesday. The threat for river flooding continues into late
Wednesday tonight. Model consensus suggest end of
precipitation by early Wednesday night spreading from west to
east exiting eastern mountains by 06-09z Wednesday.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 200 am Wednesday...

cold front will be to the east of the area at the start of the
period, with only light rain and areas of drizzle lingering
across the cwa, with drier air taking hold by later in the day
Thursday. Precipitation chances will increase again, mainly
across the south on Friday, as waves move along frontal
boundary, to the south of the cwa. This frontal boundary will
also begin a gradual progression northward into the CWA as low
pressure across the southwest u.S., and upper shortwave trough
strengthens and moves northeast into the region, bringing
another round of high moisture transport and precipitation to
the region by the weekend.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 200 am Wednesday...

another strong low pressure system will affect the area over the
weekend. As with current system expect strengthening low level
winds, and high moisture transport into the region, with pw
values rising into the 1.3 to 1.4 range by Saturday evening.

Based on low track, area of strongest forcing, and therefore
precipitation looks to occur mainly across the mid ohio valley
counties. Period will need to be monitored for the possibility
of flooding issues.

Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 358 am Wednesday...

doppler radar shows axis of precipitation targeting southeast
ohio this morning, while areas across extreme southwest va and
nearby counties of WV became rain free early. High resolution
models in agreement with this lull in pcpn through at least 16z.

Expect periods of ifr under moderate to heavy rain across
southeast oh, spreading east and north to include pkb through
mid morning.

Other sites will remainVFR MVFR ceilings under periods of rain
through this afternoon or evening. Precipitation is expected to
end late tonight around 07z Thursday. But ifr conditions will be
common along the higher elevations before pcpn ends.

The eastern slopes of the appalachian could experience fzra
under trapped surface cold air through around 18z Wednesday.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Thursday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: visibility conditions under moderate rain
may vary. Ceilings heights could vary on this afternoon.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
est 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
crw consistency l l l m l m h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h m m m h h h h h
bkw consistency m h h h m m m h h h h h
ekn consistency m m m m m l l m m h h h
pkb consistency m h h h h m m h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h m h m m m m m
after 18z Thursday...

ifr possible in rain beginning Friday night and continuing
through Saturday.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for wvz523-
524-526.

Flood watch through Thursday morning for wvz005>011-013>020-
024>033-039-040.

Winter storm warning until 2 pm est this afternoon for wvz516-
518.

Oh... Flood watch through Thursday morning for ohz066-067-075-076-
083>087.

Ky... Flood watch through Thursday morning for kyz101>103-105.

Va... Flood watch through Thursday morning for vaz003-004.

Synopsis... Arj sl
near term... Arj mpk
short term... Sl
long term... Sl
aviation... Arj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi22 minE 510.00 miOvercast46°F39°F80%1019.6 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi22 minSSE 910.00 miLight Rain46°F46°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE5NE5NE4NE3NE3SE4E5SE7SE8E3SE11
G19
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G19
SE15
G24
E10
G24
SE17
G28
SE10
G25
SE12
G20
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G28
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G27
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NE7
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1 day agoW12
G17
NW6
G18
NW16
G23
NW9
G14
NW14
G20
NW8
G23
NW13
G16
NW7NW7N7N8NW7N6N4CalmN4CalmCalmN3NE3NE5E5NE4E3
2 days agoS8
G14
SE6N3SE4S3SE3W8
G14
W9
G18
SW9
G17
NW3
G14
SW7SW8SW8
G15
S5
G14
W11
G18
NW10
G22
NW9
G14
NW8NW11
G16
NW11
G17
NW10
G16
W11
G17
W11
G16
NW12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.