Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 221917
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
317 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
Mid level disturbance brings chances of showers and
thunderstorms again on Thursday. Very warm and humid with storm
chances through the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As of 206 pm Wednesday...

convective chances continue to be the primary forecast challenge
for the near term period.

Latest mesoanalysis indicates deeper moisture arriving across
the western half of the CWA with an instability axis developing
neward into SE oh. H5 vort MAX is currently advecting towards
the region from S in ky. Lift from this vort MAX may initiate a
thunderstorm or two late this afternoon through early evening
across primarily across SE oh, although nearly any area in the
cwa could see a rogue thunderstorm if temps warm enough. An
isolated strong to severe storm may occur late this afternoon
through early evening as instability continues to gradually
increase and effective shear values slowly strengthen. Locally
strong wind gusts may occur along with a brief window for some
hail to occur. However, today's severe weather threat currently
looks to be isolated.

Any convection that develops this afternoon should quickly
diminish with loss of diurnal warming this evening with a very
mild night expected.

Thursday's forecast is rather tricky as convective timing and
coverage is dependent upon how morning convection across oh
plays out. Most guidance indicates convection should move into
sw oh overnight and weaken around sunrise. However, should the
convection take longer to weaken, then some mesoscale boundaries
may push farther SE into our area. Should this occur, then
convection may develop by late morning and early afternoon
across the area. However, if the remnant boundaries remain out
of the cwa, then most convection should hold off until later in
the afternoon. Chances of severe weather are expected to be
greater tomorrow as shear values, instability, moisture
availability, and a stronger mid level disturbance are prog to
be in place. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
strong severe storm threat.

Aside from convective chances tomorrow, Thursday will be very
warm to hot with noticeably more humid conditions.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
As of 315 pm Wednesday...

pattern over the middle ohio valley and central appalachians
will be dominated by the stout closed upper level ridge over the
far southeastern conus. While the main low pressure track will
be pushed well north of the cwa, the region will be subject to
weak frontal boundaries, both warm and cold, and ultimately
focusing areas for convection. The chances for this convection
apart from the forcing mechanisms will be largely dependent on
the available layer moisture, which will be tough to come by
Friday, but increasing through the weekend. Will also have to
overcome low level inhibition early in the period as well.

Temperatures and dewpoints will be at summer type levels.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 315 pm Wednesday...

highest pops of the short and long term will be Sunday with the
frontal boundary dropping in from the north, and should pass
through giving a slight break in the temperatures into early
next week. Somewhat of a questionable confidence with the
slightly cooler airmass actually making it through but going
with more low to mid 80s on Monday in the lowlands as opposed to
the 90ish temperatures earlier in the weekend. The upper ridge
will drift to the southeast a bit from its positioning in the
short term, opening up the region to southwest flow aloft, and
thus a more progressive pattern and consistent chances for
convection.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
As of 131 pm Wednesday...

vfr expected to prevail during the TAF period.

Some mid upper level cloudiness continues to develop overspread
the region early this afternoon with some light CU fields trying
to pop.VFR to continue through the afternoon as bases of clouds
will be high. By late afternoon, isolated to sct convection may
try to develop across primarily the kpkb area where vcts has
been added. Elsewhere, isolated convection is possible but will
not be included in tafs unless greater certainty of potential
development occurs.

Vfr to continue into tonight with better coverage of ceilings
around 5kft developing Thursday morning. Isolated convection may
try to move back into the area late thurs morning, with much
better coverage existing just beyond this TAF period.

Sswrly sfc winds around 10 kts this afternoon, becoming light
tonight.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Thursday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: coverage of convection may be slightly
greater than currently forecast for late this afternoon.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
edt 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Thursday...

widespread ifr conditions are not expected at this time.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 26 rh
near term... Rh
short term... 26 rg
long term... 26 rg
aviation... Rh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi75 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1023 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi50 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F62°F54%1023 hPa

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE7E4NE5E5NE7E5E6SE7E6SE7SE8SE6SE6SE10
G16
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G14
SE9SE7SE6SE6W5W5S4
1 day agoW5NW7
G17
NW8
G15
NW4NW4NW3NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW3W5N3
2 days agoSW7S5S3SW4S4S3W5S3S4S4SW5SW5W5SW5SW7SW7W5W9W7W10
G14
SW5
G8
W5
G15
W9
G14
W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.