Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:17PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:28 AM EST (10:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:16PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 220759
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
259 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds for thanksgiving day with a warming and
dry trend through Friday. A pair of strong systems over the
weekend and into next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 235 am Thursday...

a lingering axis of lower level moisture, likely associated
with an elevated frontal boundary as noted by a tight
temperature gradient aloft, prevents immediate clearing across
much of the CWA today despite surface high pressure building.

This feature will slowly drift northeastward through the near
term, allowing for eventual and gradual clearing from southwest
to northeast, and a largely clear forecast area later tonight.

Ultimately, warm air advection off the surface commences in a
brief pattern change with ridging aloft. However, the low
dewpoint air and aforementioned clearing should allow
temperatures back below freezing tonight. No precipitation
expected this period once the snow showers in the highest ridges
end over the next couple of hours. Because of the synoptic set
up and an unequal distribution of cloud cover, there will be a
larger gradient of forecast high temperatures today, pushing 15
degrees from the tug fork valley to the us 50 corridor.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 245 am Thursday...

warmer, and dry on Friday as shortwave ridging takes hold out
ahead of approaching upper shortwave trough, and surface low,
which will develop and move northeast through the mid atlantic
region Friday night into Saturday. Surface high pressure over
the atlantic at the start of the period, will result in cold air
damming along the eastern slopes of the appalachians, and with
resultant isentropic lift as system approaches, a wintry mix of
freezing rain and sleet, along with the possibility for some
snow, is expected to develop late Friday night through Saturday
morning. This colder air will be quickly scoured out by early to mid
morning Saturday, as surface high pressure over the atlantic
gets kicked off to the east, with any wintry mix changing over
to rain, heavy at times, with good dynamics and moisture fetch
expected. Expected ice accumulations at this time are generally
expected to be 0.10 inches or less, although locally higher
amounts are possible, with around an inch or so of snow and
sleet. Rain amounts on Saturday will generally range from 1 to
1.25 inches across the higher terrain, with less than an inch
expected across the lowlands. Localized areal flooding issues
will be possible. Will continue to highlight the hazards in the
hwo.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 255 am Thursday...

dry on Sunday with high pressure taking hold. Another system
will move into the area early next week, and linger across the
great lakes region through the remainder of the long term
period. Temperatures will be warm enough at the start for
precipitation to mainly fall as rain, but by mid week, enough
cold air should be in place that we will see periods of snow
showers, even across the lowland counties. There could be
several inches of accumulations across the higher terrain
counties as northwesterly upslope flow takes hold during the
period, with lesser accumulations expected across the lowlands.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 1230 am Thursday...

an elevated front draped northwest to southeast with a moisture
axis along with it keeps MVFR ceilings in play for a few more
hours. It will lift back to the northeast over the front end of
the forecast, and should see improving ceilings toVFR as it
does so. The forecast is dry, with the exception of lingering
light mountain snow showers, or perhaps freezing drizzle mixed
in. Otherwise, the forecast is largely benign once the ceilings
lift. Winds under 10kts through the forecast period, but
dramatic shifts in the direction likely in response to high
pressure north of the area moving east into the northeastern
conus.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: timing of improvement toVFR conditions
could vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thu 11 22 18
utc 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
est 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h l h m h h h h h
pkb consistency h h l h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 06z Friday...

ifr in rain likely Friday night and Saturday, and in freezing
rain on the east slopes of the mountains early Saturday morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 26 sl
near term... Jsh 26
short term... Sl
long term... Sl
aviation... 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi54 minW 410.00 miFair32°F27°F83%1026.4 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair32°F32°F100%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3SW3W7W5W6W6SW5NW7W4NW7NW5NW4W3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW4W3CalmW3
1 day agoNW6NW7NW8NW13
G20
NW8NW11
G17
NW11
G15
NW7NW6
G14
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G18
W8N6CalmNW10
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NW4NW3NW6CalmW4W6W3SW3W3SW3
2 days agoSW3S3CalmSW5SW7SW8
G15
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G16
SW8SW9
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G14
SW5SW3SW7SW7SW9
G15
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W6W5NW7NW8
G15
NW8W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.