Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:30 AM   Moonset 1:08 PM

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FXUS61 KRLX 020533 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 130 AM Thursday...

An upper level ridge remains over the area today while a frontal boundary - initially located near the northwest fringe of the CWA - is lifted further north as a low moves out of the Central Plains and approaches the Great Lakes later today. Dry low-level air should allow dry conditions to persist across the area today, though some mid to high level clouds may continue to drift overhead.

Ridging begins to slide east tonight as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. While quiet weather should linger through the night, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected to occur ahead of the front.

After a mild morning, daytime highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the mountains. Tonight will be mild again with lows likely to be in the 50s to 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as upper level ridging slowly works east through the region. Despite daytime highs nearly 15 degrees above normal values for this time of the year, high temperature records should be secure.

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting shifting east Friday along surface low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night. Upper level support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday. This will also keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow storm motions. Could potentially have some very isolated water issues accumulate with multiple slow moving storms moving over the same location, but given the state of vegetation and recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

A northern stream shortwave approaching late Saturday night into Sunday morning will better focus precipitation chances, but a modest increase in mid-level flow will also allow for faster storm motions further limiting any threat for flash flooding.

Should see a brief break in showery activity late Sunday into early Monday morning as transient ridging briefly builds ahead of warm frontal passage during the day Monday bringing additional showers and thunderstorms.

The weak flow regime comes to an end Wednesday as ridging over the eastern half of the country shifts east allowing stronger upper level flow to return to the region. This would yield increasing concerns for strong to severe storms during the day Wednesday, but this will hinge heavily on eventual cold frontal timing.

Daytime highs remain modestly above normal values for this time of the year, but with added Gulf influenced moisture overnight lows will be within a few degrees of their record high minimums overnight.

AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are currently present across the area, while high level clouds move overhead. A few areas of fog could attempt to form towards daybreak, though confidence in development is low. Sub- VFR CIGs /VIS could be possible if fog does form early this morning, then flight conditions would improve back to VFR shortly after sunrise and remain VFR for the rest of the TAF period.

Calm to light winds are expected to linger into the morning, then winds remain light and variable for the rest of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 05/02/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M M L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday, and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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