Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clinchco, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:40PM Saturday May 27, 2017 11:49 AM EDT (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 9:48PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clinchco, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 271420
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
1020 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Rounds of convection are expected this holiday weekend, until a
cold front crosses first thing Monday morning. Additional cold
fronts cross Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1015 am Saturday...

will watching the low level clouds this morning for clearing,
which appears to be a small struggle right now. Reaching the
convective temperatures could be a significant key to the severe
potential today. Iln sounding is loaded pretty well, saturated
to around 10kft, but there is a mid level cap that will need to
be broken.

As of 515 am Saturday...

decaying MCS will continue to move east across far northern zones
through early this morning.

Focus then shifts to increasing chances for severe weather as the
day progresses. Surface boundary, at 4 am stalled out across central
in ohio, will sag south into the region today as low pressure wave
moves east. Convection will fire later this afternoon in vicinity of
boundary, while a separate shortwave will move east across our south
later this evening, creating additional convection. This looks to be
a favorable severe weather set up today, with a very unstable
airmass progged to be in place. Model soundings indicating high
cape, on the order of 3000 j kg on average mu cape, and strong
shear, on the order of 30-40 kts, with unidirectional profiles. With
such high cape, particularly in the hail growth zone, and shear,
expecting severe hail, along with the threat for damaging winds. In
addition, the threat for tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.

Models indicating low lcl's and stp of around 1 across the south.

Spc has highlighted the entire CWA in a slight risk for today with a
2 percent tornado risk. However, greatest threat is strong damaging
winds and hail.

In addition to the overall severe threat, there of course remains
the threat for flash flooding. Pw values progged to rise to around
1.4 to 1.6 inches today as high moisture content air feeds into the
region. Areas that receive repetitive convection will be most
vulnerable. FFG values are higher in ohio and kentucky, and the
threat for repetitive storms today should mainly be across the
southern half of the cwa, providing boundary sets up this afternoon
where models are predicting. The watch was issued to account for
additional convection on Sunday and Sunday night, and may with time,
need to be expanded in area. Will allow future shifts to monitor
development of convection today, and determine if expansion in
future forecast updates is necessary.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
As of 515 am Saturday...

additional convection Sunday and Sunday night will be dependent
upon previous convection leaving behind a worked over
environment. Several boundaries are likely to be in the area
Sunday, including at least one outflow boundary somewhere
across the south, and a more synoptically driven boundary to the
north. There may also be a north to south oriented boundary
crossing as a surface reflection of an upper level short wave
trough.

Model differences in moisture and instability on Sunday reflect
the possible effects of a cool pool from previous convection.

Models are in better agreement on most of the CAPE being
elevated and thickest in the hail growth layer. This somewhat
tempers the diurnal dependency of convection. Deep layer shear
is forecast to be in the 40 to 50 kt range.

All of this suggests showers and thunderstorms around from time
to time Sunday through Sunday night, with repetitive downpours
possible. Also, afternoon recovery would add surface based
instability to the equation, resulting in very strong, heavy
thunderstorms. Finally, to go along with these parameters,
sigtor values are forecast to climb to 1 to 1.5 in an axis ahead
of a cold front approaching from the west Sunday night.

The flood watch GOES until 12z Monday when the cold front goes
through, and the hwo also highlights the convective threat.

Yet another cold front crosses late Tuesday. While weaker and
with less available moisture than the weekend system, it will
still be able to garner enough moisture and shear for
thunderstorms.

No deviations from central guidance temperatures but values will
fluctuate with the convective complexes.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
As of 515 am Saturday...

this period features a large upper level low over eastern
canada with long wave trough over the eastern united states.

This spells a cool, more tranquil pattern once a reinforcing
cold front crosses on Wednesday. Pops increase again next
weekend, as that trough lifts out, and allows another system to
approach from the west or southwest.

Central guidance temperatures reflect the slightly below normal
pattern.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 623 am Saturday...

isolated showers have developed this morning in unstable
airmass. Brief MVFR conditions are possible.

Otherwise,VFR conditions initially, although convection will
develop once again, particularly after 18z, with MVFR and ifr
conditions, heavy rain, and strong-damaging winds in vicinity
of storms.

Bulk of convection will diminish after 04z-06z Sunday, however,
widespread MVFR and ifr conditions are possible in post rain
stratus or fog.

Additional showers and thunderstorms expected towards the end of
the TAF period and beyond.

Forecast confidence: medium
after 12z Sunday...

ifr likely in storms Sunday and Monday.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
edt 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
hts consistency h h h l h h h h h h h m
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ekn consistency h h h h m h h h h h h l
pkb consistency m m h m m h m h h h h m
ckb consistency h h m h h m m m h h h m
after 12z Sunday...

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Monday
morning for wvz005>008-013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520.

Oh... None.

Ky... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Monday
morning for kyz102-103-105.

Va... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Monday
morning for vaz003-004.

Synopsis... Trm sl
near term... Sl 26
short term... Trm
long term... Trm
aviation... Sl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA18 mi80 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast68°F59°F73%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from LNP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW7
G14
SW12
G20
SW5
G16
SW4
1 day agoSW13
G16
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G17
SW12
G17
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G21
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G22
W8W9W9
G16
W7W13
G21
W8W9W11
G16
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G16
W8W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4CalmS9
G19
CalmS8
G17
S7S5CalmSW9
G16
SW8SW3CalmW7SW8SW5SW7SW9SW10SW7SW9
G14
SW10SW9SW8SW13
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.