Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:06AM||Sunset 5:20PM||Thursday November 15, 2018 3:06 AM EST (08:06 UTC)||Moonrise 1:31PM||Moonset 12:00AM||Illumination 48%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clinchco, VAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 krlx 150616|
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
116 am est Thu nov 15 2018
System crosses overnight through Thursday night with winter
weather, including freezing rain, for parts of the area. High
pressure builds to begin the weekend.
Near term through today
As of 115 am Thursday...
forecast on track, pending a revisit of surface temperatures
and extent of freezing rain over the lowlands overnight.
As of 821 pm Wednesday...
have made multiple changes to inherited forecast.
Adjusted hourly temps downwards by several degrees for tonight,
given current observations and latest guidance output. Still
feel that temps will warm overnight across areas to the west of
the mountains, but that warming will be rather slow to occur.
Also increased wind speeds across the higher terrain for the
Precip shield is beginning to move across NE ky and into
portions of va, wv, and SE oh. However, there are still some
rather significant dewpoint depression values in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, so it will take a little bit of time
for the precip to reach the ground once radar returns spread
over the area. With that said, the evaporational cooling should
tug the sfc temps downward by a degree or two this
evening... Before temps finally warm overnight.
Regarding wintry precip: some light freezing rain may occur with
the onset of the light precip this evening across NE ky, SW va,
se oh, and wv. However, as sfc temps warm overnight any ice that
develops should melt. All in all, not overly impressed right now
with freezing rain occurring across much of the winter weather
advisory area, but will maintain for now in the off-chance that
temps remain colder than expected overnight. Would not be
surprised if portions of the winter wx advisory are canceled at
some point overnight for the aforementioned areas.
It will be a much different story across E and SE wv, however.
Latest guidance has come in colder with overnight sfc temps
from roughly kbkw to kekn and points eastward... And warmer with
the melting layer. This may increase the freezing rain
potential (and associated ice accumulations) for those areas.
Have lowered snowfall amounts a little and increased sleet and
ice accumulations for the winter storm warning area and for se
raleigh, SE fayette, and SE nicholas counties. Even now, ice
accumulation forecasts may be a little on the conservative side.
As of 230 pm Wednesday...
models and MOS guidance have continued to warm with each run.
Mos guidance now keeps the huntington and charleston airports
above freezing overnight, with beckley above freezing by the
time that precipitation arrives. Still could see some of the
normal colder spots picking up some brief freezing rain as the
precipitation moves in, so will go with a winter weather
advisory in this corridor for now.
Further north in areas west of the mountains, will see a better
chance of some freezing rain overnight, although models mos
have also trended warmer in this area. Will continue go with an
advisory in this area.
The main brunt of the storm should affect the higher elevations
of the northern mountains and the northern greenbrier. Expect
significant accumulations of sleet and freezing rain, with some
snow also possible at times. Will upgrade this area to a winter
Short term tonight through Saturday night
As of 212 pm Wednesday...
low pressure over ky will quickly move across the region
Thursday night and exit early Friday morning. Cold air on the
backside of this low will change any lingering precipitation
back to snow before ending from west to east on Friday. Could
see a dusting up to an inch from SE oh across into wv. Lingering
snow showers will continue across the favorable upslope areas
of the WV mountains with an additional inch or two through the
day on Friday and gradually end Friday evening.
Weak ridging to the south will dry things out for Saturday into
Sunday. A weak cold front is expected to approach the region on
Sunday with the possibility of shower across the northern
portion of the area.
Long term Sunday through Wednesday |
As of 200 pm Wednesday...
while the end of the weekend looks to be fairly quiet, models
are in agreement of a shortwave crossing through the region on
Monday, but timing consensus is still lacking this far out.
Surface cold front quickly passes through Monday morning, with
its associated precipitation banking up along the mountains by
midday. Low level moisture will be sparse during the remainder
of the long term, keeping any passing energy lobe aloft from
sparking additional activity after Monday.
Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 115 am Thursday...
an approaching low pressure system will bring widespread rain
through Thursday. Rain overnight may freeze on elevated surfaces
across the northern lowlands and in the mountains. This would
include pkb, ckb, ekn and bkw. Fzra may persist into the
daylight morning hours at ekn. More significant ice
accumulation, as well as some snow accumulation, is likely over
the higher terrain.
Ceiling and visibility are likely to drop into MVFR from south
to north overnight, and then to ifr at times Thursday. Thursday
night will bring slow improvement on ceilings, which will
struggle to get above 1000 ft. Visibility will improve toVFR
Thursday night, except for MVFR or brief ifr in snow showers.
MVFR visibility in snow showers may be more persistent in and
near the mountains Thursday night.
Light east to northeast surface flow overnight will become light
east to southeast early Thursday morning, and then light and
variable the balance of Thursday with low pressure overhead,
and then becoming light west to northwest Thursday night, as
the low GOES by. Surface flow in the mountains overnight will be
more southeasterly, and gusty on the ridges, including bkw with
gusts to around 25 kts ongoing there.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...
forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing of the arrival of precipitation,
and precipitation type may vary overnight into Thursday morning.
Category changes may vary in a widespread MVFR ifr environment
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Thu 11 15 18
utc 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
est 1hrly 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
crw consistency h h h h h h m m m h h h
hts consistency h m m h h h h m m h m h
bkw consistency h h h m h m m m m h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h m h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h m h h h m h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h m h m h h
after 06z Friday...
ifr possible in snow showers overnight Thursday night into
early Friday morning, mainly in the mountains.
Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for
Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz083-
Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
Ky... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
Va... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for vaz004.
Synopsis... Js rpy trm mek
near term... Rpy rh trm
short term... Js
long term... Mek
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA||18 mi||72 min||SE 7 G 16||7.00 mi||Light Rain||36°F||35°F||100%||1020.3 hPa|
Wind History from LNP (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||N||NW||N||NW||N||NW||NW||N||N||N||NW||NW||N||NW||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||Calm||SE||SE||SW||Calm||S||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||Calm||N |
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (3,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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