Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:56 AM   Moonset 11:56 AM

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FXUS61 KRLX 010212 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1012 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front exits tonight. High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend Wednesday into Friday. Shower chances increase for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1015 PM Tuesday...

The forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made at this time.

As of 730 PM Tuesday...

Cleaned up POPs to represent the last bit of activity going on along the cold front and set the trend over the next several hours at which point any activity should exit toward the east.
This exodus will clear out clouds and winds will go calm, therefore fog will likely form across the area and become dense at times through the morning. Also, nudged temperatures to become more in line with the forecast as they were bouncing around due to shower activity.

As of 125 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will continue to push eastward across the area this afternoon, providing some showers and possible a few thunderstorms.
As the front moves off to the east this evening, the precipitation will come to an end. With winds becoming light and the recent rainfall, expect widespread dense fog to form tonight. Models are showing another front on Wednesday, but moisture does not look sufficient for any precipitation.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

A weak cold front stalls north of the region Wednesday night amidst high zonal flow aloft yielding little in the way of sensible weather concerns. This high zonal pattern gives way to a building longwave ridge Thursday yielding continuing dry and increasingly hot conditions for Thursday and most of the day Friday.

50th percentile guidance is rather high for daytime highs both days. Deterministic central guidance reflects highs several degrees lower. Even these might be a little high given the flush state of Spring vegetation across most of the area, especially on Friday when at least some Gulf influence moisture should start returning to the area prior to maximum heating.
This is likely a result of the 30 day bias period looking back before we were properly greened up. Temperature records are most likely secure with most reflecting values higher than even the rather aggressive 75th percentile guidance.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting shifting east Friday along with surface low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night.
Upper level support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday.
This will also keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow storm motions. Could potentially have some very isolated water issues with multiple slow moving storms moving over the same location, but given the state of vegetation and recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

The weak flow pattern persists through the weekend featuring mainly diurnally driven convection.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 745 PM Tuesday...

A nice set up for widespread fog during the overnight with clouds clearing out toward the east as the cold front exits.
Surface flow will become very light to calm across most areas allowing for the potential for fog to develop and affect all terminals. Have LIFR under fog for every site from mid to late morning. The fog will lift around 13Z allowing for VFR to take back control.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 05/01/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L H H H M H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to fog Thursday morning.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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