Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Clinchco, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:20PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:06 AM EST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clinchco, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 150616
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
116 am est Thu nov 15 2018

System crosses overnight through Thursday night with winter
weather, including freezing rain, for parts of the area. High
pressure builds to begin the weekend.

Near term through today
As of 115 am Thursday...

forecast on track, pending a revisit of surface temperatures
and extent of freezing rain over the lowlands overnight.

As of 821 pm Wednesday...

have made multiple changes to inherited forecast.

Adjusted hourly temps downwards by several degrees for tonight,
given current observations and latest guidance output. Still
feel that temps will warm overnight across areas to the west of
the mountains, but that warming will be rather slow to occur.

Also increased wind speeds across the higher terrain for the
overnight hours.

Precip shield is beginning to move across NE ky and into
portions of va, wv, and SE oh. However, there are still some
rather significant dewpoint depression values in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, so it will take a little bit of time
for the precip to reach the ground once radar returns spread
over the area. With that said, the evaporational cooling should
tug the sfc temps downward by a degree or two this
evening... Before temps finally warm overnight.

Regarding wintry precip: some light freezing rain may occur with
the onset of the light precip this evening across NE ky, SW va,
se oh, and wv. However, as sfc temps warm overnight any ice that
develops should melt. All in all, not overly impressed right now
with freezing rain occurring across much of the winter weather
advisory area, but will maintain for now in the off-chance that
temps remain colder than expected overnight. Would not be
surprised if portions of the winter wx advisory are canceled at
some point overnight for the aforementioned areas.

It will be a much different story across E and SE wv, however.

Latest guidance has come in colder with overnight sfc temps
from roughly kbkw to kekn and points eastward... And warmer with
the melting layer. This may increase the freezing rain
potential (and associated ice accumulations) for those areas.

Have lowered snowfall amounts a little and increased sleet and
ice accumulations for the winter storm warning area and for se
raleigh, SE fayette, and SE nicholas counties. Even now, ice
accumulation forecasts may be a little on the conservative side.

As of 230 pm Wednesday...

models and MOS guidance have continued to warm with each run.

Mos guidance now keeps the huntington and charleston airports
above freezing overnight, with beckley above freezing by the
time that precipitation arrives. Still could see some of the
normal colder spots picking up some brief freezing rain as the
precipitation moves in, so will go with a winter weather
advisory in this corridor for now.

Further north in areas west of the mountains, will see a better
chance of some freezing rain overnight, although models mos
have also trended warmer in this area. Will continue go with an
advisory in this area.

The main brunt of the storm should affect the higher elevations
of the northern mountains and the northern greenbrier. Expect
significant accumulations of sleet and freezing rain, with some
snow also possible at times. Will upgrade this area to a winter
storm warning.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
As of 212 pm Wednesday...

low pressure over ky will quickly move across the region
Thursday night and exit early Friday morning. Cold air on the
backside of this low will change any lingering precipitation
back to snow before ending from west to east on Friday. Could
see a dusting up to an inch from SE oh across into wv. Lingering
snow showers will continue across the favorable upslope areas
of the WV mountains with an additional inch or two through the
day on Friday and gradually end Friday evening.

Weak ridging to the south will dry things out for Saturday into
Sunday. A weak cold front is expected to approach the region on
Sunday with the possibility of shower across the northern
portion of the area.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 200 pm Wednesday...

while the end of the weekend looks to be fairly quiet, models
are in agreement of a shortwave crossing through the region on
Monday, but timing consensus is still lacking this far out.

Surface cold front quickly passes through Monday morning, with
its associated precipitation banking up along the mountains by
midday. Low level moisture will be sparse during the remainder
of the long term, keeping any passing energy lobe aloft from
sparking additional activity after Monday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 115 am Thursday...

an approaching low pressure system will bring widespread rain
through Thursday. Rain overnight may freeze on elevated surfaces
across the northern lowlands and in the mountains. This would
include pkb, ckb, ekn and bkw. Fzra may persist into the
daylight morning hours at ekn. More significant ice
accumulation, as well as some snow accumulation, is likely over
the higher terrain.

Ceiling and visibility are likely to drop into MVFR from south
to north overnight, and then to ifr at times Thursday. Thursday
night will bring slow improvement on ceilings, which will
struggle to get above 1000 ft. Visibility will improve toVFR
Thursday night, except for MVFR or brief ifr in snow showers.

MVFR visibility in snow showers may be more persistent in and
near the mountains Thursday night.

Light east to northeast surface flow overnight will become light
east to southeast early Thursday morning, and then light and
variable the balance of Thursday with low pressure overhead,
and then becoming light west to northwest Thursday night, as
the low GOES by. Surface flow in the mountains overnight will be
more southeasterly, and gusty on the ridges, including bkw with
gusts to around 25 kts ongoing there.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of the arrival of precipitation,
and precipitation type may vary overnight into Thursday morning.

Category changes may vary in a widespread MVFR ifr environment
this period.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thu 11 15 18
utc 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
est 1hrly 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
crw consistency h h h h h h m m m h h h
hts consistency h m m h h h h m m h m h
bkw consistency h h h m h m m m m h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h m h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h m h h h m h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h m h m h h
after 06z Friday...

ifr possible in snow showers overnight Thursday night into
early Friday morning, mainly in the mountains.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for

Oh... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz083-

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for

Ky... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for

Va... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for vaz004.

Synopsis... Js rpy trm mek
near term... Rpy rh trm
short term... Js
long term... Mek
aviation... Trm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA18 mi72 minSE 7 G 167.00 miLight Rain36°F35°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from LNP (wind in knots)
1 day agoCalmCalmN3NW3N4NW4N4NW8NW7N7N5N5NW6NW6N6NW5N7N7N7N4N6N7N3N5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE4SE5SW5CalmS6SE4SE5SE6SE6SE3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.