Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olmsted, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:43PM Monday February 19, 2018 1:46 PM CST (19:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 10:33PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmsted, IL
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location: 37.18, -89.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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Fxus63 kpah 191910
afdpah
area forecast discussion
national weather service paducah ky
110 pm cst Mon feb 19 2018

Update
Issued at 110 pm cst Mon feb 19 2018
updated aviation discussion.

Short term (today through Wednesday night)
issued at 335 am cst Mon feb 19 2018
a warm front will continue to lift north across the area through
the morning, generating scattered showers, and possibly a rumble
of thunder. Gusty ssw winds will continue to push warmer and more
humid air north across the region as well in the wake of the warm
front. Through the day, the cam's push best convective chances to
our NW counties from southern il into southeast mo. Unseasonably
warm highs in the upper 60s in this area, with mid 70s across the
ky pennyrile.

The best chance of convection through Tuesday will continue to be
across the NW 1 3 to 1 2 of the cwfa in the warm sector ahead of
an approaching cold front, that will be approaching our cwfa by
early Tuesday evening. Another unseasonably warm day Tuesday with
some areas across the ky pennyrile near the 80f mark, 70s most
areas. Overnight Tuesday, pops will increase from west to east,
with the cold front by 12z Wednesday forecast to be pushing across
the ohio. Much of the axis of heavy rainfall will be along the
850mb front along and behind the surface boundary. High efficiency
is anticipated with pw's 2+sd's above the curve for mid february.

We favored slightly higher wpc forecast numbers vs. The blend. We
typically under forecast heavy rain anyway, so we tended slightly
more aggressive. Thunder overall will be widely scattered, not
overly prevalent due to marginal elevated instability. This lack
of deeper convection may keep amounts from getting too carried
away and allow for more steady rates.

For Wednesday night, we may see a second surge of rain, heavy at
times into west ky. Think the GFS is underdone. The ECMWF has been
more consistent with this signal, and now the NAM supports it as
well. The 850mb boundary never really clears the cwfa by far, then
a return SW low level jet sets up into west ky overnight
Wednesday. We went higher than both the blends and wpc for
Wednesday night, utilizing more of the nam, ecmwf, and slight cmc
incorporation. The GFS is a a persistent outlier pushing activity
farther southeast. Did not discount it completely. But it defies
pattern logic given the deep mid tropospheric SW flow AOA 700mb.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 335 am cst Mon feb 19 2018
another heavy rainfall event appears to be in the offing late this
week into the weekend. This event could be rather prolonged.

Thursday could potentially be the driest day of the week in the wake
of the cold front that passes through on Wednesday. However, the
models are not even in full agreement on this lull in the precip.

The surface front is forecast to stall to our south Thursday,
somewhere across the tennessee valley. The 00z ECMWF is not as far
south as most other guidance, and therefore it indicates rain
continuing on Thursday. The forecast will lean toward the drier gfs,
but the persistent moist southwest flow aloft will ensure the drying
trend is short-lived.

The models agree the front will return north to the ohio valley and
southern missouri Thursday night. Widespread rainfall will accompany
the front.

The front is expected to become quasi-stationary somewhere in the
vicinity of the ohio river and southeast missouri from Friday
through Saturday. During this period, a strong southwest low level
jet will feed plenty of moisture into and over the frontal boundary.

Surface dew points will be in the lower 60s south of the front.

Marginal instability will result in some convective enhancement of
the precip. The location of the heaviest rainfall axis will depend
on exactly where the front sets up. The front may oscillate back and
forth across the region as indicated by the 00z ecmwf.

A 500 mb shortwave will then eject northeast from the
base of the western trough, triggering a surface low over the
plains. This surface low will track northeast across missouri and
illinois Saturday into Saturday night. A cold front trailing
southwest from the low will bring one last surge of rainfall as it
crosses our region, most likely Saturday night. Before all is said
and done, there is the potential for at least a few more inches of
rain from Thursday through the weekend.

Temperatures will depend on the location of the frontal boundary,
but it appears they will be mainly in the 60s south of the front and
50s to the north of the front.

Aviation
Issued at 110 pm cst Mon feb 19 2018
robust southerly surface winds will be the main story with the
aviation forecast, with llws possible during the overnight hours.

Sustained winds 15 to 20 knots are expected during the daylight
hours, with gusts 25 to 35 knots possible. Some decrease in winds
will occur at night. Where they exist, MVFR CIGS should become less
prominent as the afternoon GOES by. These CIGS are forecast to
return by daybreak, with the possible exception of the southernmost
pennyrile region. Any significant pcpn that may occur will be
restricted to parts of southeastern mo and southern il, in general.

Pah watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

Mo... None.

In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Cn
long term... .My
aviation... ..Db


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cairo Regional Airport, IL11 mi71 minSSW 15 G 2310.00 miOvercast67°F60°F80%1016.3 hPa
Metropolis Municipal Airport, IL17 mi71 minS 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast69°F59°F73%1016.9 hPa
Paducah, Barkley Regional Airport, KY18 mi53 minS 12 G 3010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F57°F61%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from CIR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE7SE7S5S4S5SE4S4S8S8S6S8S8S11S8S12
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1 day agoW5W4W5SW3SW3SW3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE9SE11SE8SE7SE9
2 days agoN13N9N7N5NE7N5N3N3NE3N4CalmNE4E4NE4E5E7N6E4CalmE5NE5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Paducah, KY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.