Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM   Moonset 1:37 PM

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FXUS63 KPAH 021139 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 639 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the entire forecast, along with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the Quad State late this afternoon through Friday.

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected over the weekend.

- Next week, a more robust convective environment will develop across the Quad State, leading to some potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Upper ridging from the Gulf of Mexico northeast through the Appalachians and on through the northeast will persist through the 7 day forecast. It will at times attempt to build back westward over the Quad State, but in general, weak southwest flow aloft will be the rule through at least the weekend. Early next week, the flow will increase and become more west southwest.

At the surface, south winds will develop today and then become light and variable tonight through much of the weekend. Early next week, more robust southerly low-level flow will develop over the region.

Weak disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend. The first will bring some isolated convection to western portions of the region late this afternoon and then more widespread convection will overspread the region tonight into Friday. The convection could linger over the southeast half of the area through Friday night. In general, instability and wind fields will be weak. Very strong and deep mixing will generate some very steep low-level lapse rates this afternoon, so if a thunderstorm can get going in the heat of the day, it could produce isolated gusty winds. In general, storms tonight through Friday will be weak and short-lived.

Saturday will likely be dry for most of the region. However, there is a small chance of showers lingering in the far southeast, and some model guidance attempts to bring convection eastward into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Saturday into Saturday evening. Another disturbance will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday afternoon through Monday. Wind fields and instability will remain relatively weak through Monday, so any thunderstorms should be rather weak.

For Tuesday and beyond, west southwest flow aloft will strengthen, resulting in increased low-level southerly flow and more robust moisture return to the Quad State. This should create better instability and stronger wind shear by Tuesday afternoon, which would support a better chance of severe storms and heavy rainfall. This threat will continue through at least next Thursday. While the general environment will be sufficient to support a severe storm and heavy rainfall risk, confidence in timing details is low at this time. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

South winds will gust 15-20kts at times this afternoon.
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread eastward across the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. MVFR visibilities with IFR ceilings should quickly develop after the onset of rain. TSRA was not mentioned in this forecast due to the expected isolated coverage.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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Paducah, KY,