Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olmsted, IL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday June 20, 2019 12:22 AM CDT (05:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:07PMMoonset 8:30AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmsted, IL
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location: 37.18, -89.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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Fxus63 kpah 200517
afdpah
area forecast discussion
national weather service paducah ky
1217 am cdt Thu jun 20 2019

Update
Issued at 1214 am cdt Thu jun 20 2019
predominant flooding threat for southeast illinois and southwest
indiana has lessened considerably this evening, so cancelled the
flash flood watch that was set to expire overnight.

Cam model guidance suggested most persistent convection will move
into southern sections of west kentucky overnight, so adjusted
pops and weather to reflect this change for the rest of tonight.

Update issued at 932 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019
plan to maintain scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through
the evening hours.

The rap was showing a almost triangular area of 1500-3500 cape
with 35-40 knot shear in 40-50 mile radius around the impressive
thunderstorm that developed west of kpof earlier this evening.

Until recently, have not seen alot of splitting with these storms,
but the one near kcgi has been a left-mover.

Most of the thunderstorms have been developing along the trailing
edge of a deep layer moisture gradient per differential water
vapor imagery. Kpah and kvwx radar showing some mid-level veering
(mid level shortwave) rotating above capped flow below. However,
flow continues to veer this evening through the layer, so still
worth monitoring.

Northern area of convection (over jefferson and wayne co il)
appears to have run into lesser favorable environment to maintain
thunderstorms, so not much concern there at this time.

At this point, not sure how much more fuel these thunderstorms can
access before running into contaminated mixed air from earlier
convection today. Rap is suggesting some lowering of CAPE (down to
1500 j kg2 and marginal mid-level lapse rates further east into
southern illinois and the northern section of the purchase area of
west ky. However, may see some maintenance of the stronger storms
into southwest il and along the ky tn border through at least
230z-330z.

Short term (tonight through Friday night)
issued at 300 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019
ongoing scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely continue
into the late afternoon and early evening. Sbcapes have been
running upward of 1500-2500 j kg with dcapes up close to 1000 j kg
over portions of southeast mo WRN ky. 0-3 km bulk shear has been
marginal, generally 30-35 kts, but effective bulk shear has been
running closer to 40 kts along the ms river, where some storms
have reached severe limits this afternoon. In addition, emanating
outflow boundaries from ongoing storms will likely serve to kick
off additional convection. It should be noted that these storms
also have a history of producing a half inch of rainfall in about
15 minutes. Will continue with a flash flood watch for those
portions of southeast il SW in that have received the most
rainfall in the past several days. Storms are expected to become
a bit weaker and less widespread after dark tonight as we lose a
good deal of low lvl instability. However, cannot rule out
additional heavy downpours and some gusty winds.

A weak area of sfc high pressure will move east into the region
behind this system on Thursday, leading to an end to most rain
chances and slightly cooler and less humid conditions. However,
the heat and humidity will be cranked back up as we finish the
work week. In fact, would not be surprised to see heat indices at
some locations top 100 degrees Friday afternoon if we manage
enough sunshine. A few warm advection showers and thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, ESP during the heat of the
afternoon evening. However, thinking now the best overall forcing
will remain off to our NW and north. Could be more of a pulsey
situation where storms manage to form. In fact, ridging aloft
could also serve to somewhat temper the convection.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 300 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019
models are in fair agreement at the start of the extended. The ecmwf
may be a little to fast with the system Saturday. The canadian may
be a little slow. So will lean toward a compromise which would be
ecmwf.

We start off Saturday with an upper level high center over the gulf
with a the apex of the ridge rising into canada. However there will
be some weak perturbations caught in the flow in the ridge itself.

This will keep a chance of rain in the forecast or storm. The main
impact for Saturday be the heat. We are looking for high
temperatures around or in the 90s with dew points in the 70s. This
should produce heat index values between 100 and 105. These
perturbations will continue to eject out of long wave trough over
the central rockies. This trough will make its way eastward across
the plains. This will begin to break down the ridge a keep rain
chances into next week. Rain chances will continue into the middle
of next week although chances and coverage are much lower. Also
temperatures and dew points will moderate slightly brining a little
less oppressive conditions to the region.

Aviation
Issued at 1214 am cdt Thu jun 20 2019
ifr conditions should continue for the first hour or two at
kevv kowb ahead of a frontal boundary to the north. However, lower
MVFR ceilings moving southward through the rest of the WFO pah
taf sites, with the exception of kcgi during the day on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will move close to the kpah and kowb
area through 14z, but kept ceilings and visibilities inVFR
category.

Pah watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

Mo... None.

In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Smith
short term... Gm
long term... Kh
aviation... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cairo Regional Airport, IL11 mi48 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F72°F99%1004.4 hPa
Metropolis Municipal Airport, IL17 mi28 minSSE 35.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F96%1004.4 hPa
Paducah, Barkley Regional Airport, KY18 mi30 minS 410.00 miFair72°F69°F91%1003.4 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S4S6S3SW6S7CalmNW6CalmW10S4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4SE3CalmS4CalmCalmS3S5S4S5S3S4CalmW3SW5CalmS6S6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S4S7SW6SW7SW6S7S5S5S6SW3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmS4SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Paducah, KY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.