Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olmsted, IL
May 20, 2024 1:23 AM CDT (06:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:43 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 5:30 PM Moonset 3:56 AM |
FXUS63 KPAH 200449 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and very warm conditions are expected through Tuesday.
- Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday night and continue through next Sunday. Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night will have the best chances of thunderstorms and some potential for severe weather. A heavy rainfall and flooding threat could eventually develop.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The Key Messages have not changed, and neither has the forecast.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will remain in place across the region through at least Tuesday. The ECENS and GEFS are still indicating 700mb temperatures at a 5-10 year return interval Tuesday, so that should keep a lid on any attempted convection reaching the area. Temperatures overachieved yesterday and now we have dewpoints mixing down into the upper 50s this afternoon.
Actually had to mix in some of the ARW to get dewpoints that low. The mixing depth should decrease just a bit each day through Tuesday, which will lead to slightly higher temperatures and dewpoints each day. KPAH may hit 90 today, and most of the region will likely reach the lower 90s by Tuesday. At least the humidity, although increasing, will not be that much of a factor.
The forecast is dry through Tuesday, but some convection may approach our far northwest counties late Monday afternoon into the evening. Currently, the NSSL WRF is the only CAM that really brings something into the Quad State. It definitely bears watching, as there is a chance of either an MCV or outflow boundary, leftover from a strong MCS that is expected to rip through Kansas this evening, sustaining convection or helping to regenerate convection across Missouri Monday afternoon. This certainly seems plausible, so don't be surprised if some PoPs show back up in the forecast for late Monday and Monday evening.
If storms ultimately do reach the area, they will encounter poor instability and shear and should dissipate quickly.
South winds will pick up and become gusty Tuesday through Wednesday. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed both days. The increased southerly flow will lead to increasing dewpoints and a very mild Tuesday night. Lows will likely remain at or above 70 degrees.
The 12Z guidance continues to trend weaker and later with the initial attempt to bring convection into the area mid-week.
There is a chance that we will see little or no convection before Wednesday afternoon. The best chances of convection will be ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and night. The front will not be that strong, so it may not have enough of a push to make it south of the area.
The flow aloft will be stronger Wednesday and the resultant shear may be sufficient to support a few severe storms.
Dewpoints holding in the middle and upper 60s will definitely lead to better instability, especially if we do not have much convective debris over the region to hamper heating. The bottom line is that some severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the many uncertainties in this forecast, it is too early to speculate on the storm mode and specific severe threats.
With the front tending to lay down across the Quad State or just to the south, training storms are becoming more likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. This would lead to a heavy rainfall and flooding threat. The latest guidance continues to bring disturbances eastward over the region Thursday through next weekend. The associated convection will keep the heavy rainfall and flooding threat in play through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for all sites. Light winds tonight will increase to between 5-10 knots on Monday.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and very warm conditions are expected through Tuesday.
- Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday night and continue through next Sunday. Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night will have the best chances of thunderstorms and some potential for severe weather. A heavy rainfall and flooding threat could eventually develop.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The Key Messages have not changed, and neither has the forecast.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will remain in place across the region through at least Tuesday. The ECENS and GEFS are still indicating 700mb temperatures at a 5-10 year return interval Tuesday, so that should keep a lid on any attempted convection reaching the area. Temperatures overachieved yesterday and now we have dewpoints mixing down into the upper 50s this afternoon.
Actually had to mix in some of the ARW to get dewpoints that low. The mixing depth should decrease just a bit each day through Tuesday, which will lead to slightly higher temperatures and dewpoints each day. KPAH may hit 90 today, and most of the region will likely reach the lower 90s by Tuesday. At least the humidity, although increasing, will not be that much of a factor.
The forecast is dry through Tuesday, but some convection may approach our far northwest counties late Monday afternoon into the evening. Currently, the NSSL WRF is the only CAM that really brings something into the Quad State. It definitely bears watching, as there is a chance of either an MCV or outflow boundary, leftover from a strong MCS that is expected to rip through Kansas this evening, sustaining convection or helping to regenerate convection across Missouri Monday afternoon. This certainly seems plausible, so don't be surprised if some PoPs show back up in the forecast for late Monday and Monday evening.
If storms ultimately do reach the area, they will encounter poor instability and shear and should dissipate quickly.
South winds will pick up and become gusty Tuesday through Wednesday. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed both days. The increased southerly flow will lead to increasing dewpoints and a very mild Tuesday night. Lows will likely remain at or above 70 degrees.
The 12Z guidance continues to trend weaker and later with the initial attempt to bring convection into the area mid-week.
There is a chance that we will see little or no convection before Wednesday afternoon. The best chances of convection will be ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and night. The front will not be that strong, so it may not have enough of a push to make it south of the area.
The flow aloft will be stronger Wednesday and the resultant shear may be sufficient to support a few severe storms.
Dewpoints holding in the middle and upper 60s will definitely lead to better instability, especially if we do not have much convective debris over the region to hamper heating. The bottom line is that some severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the many uncertainties in this forecast, it is too early to speculate on the storm mode and specific severe threats.
With the front tending to lay down across the Quad State or just to the south, training storms are becoming more likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. This would lead to a heavy rainfall and flooding threat. The latest guidance continues to bring disturbances eastward over the region Thursday through next weekend. The associated convection will keep the heavy rainfall and flooding threat in play through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for all sites. Light winds tonight will increase to between 5-10 knots on Monday.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCIR CAIRO RGNL,IL | 11 sm | 41 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 64°F | 83% | 29.97 | |
| KPAH BARKLEY RGNL,KY | 18 sm | 30 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.96 |
Paducah, KY,
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